I think they will both do well. I personally don't care about natal for the games i play.But the wond on the other hand may be very big, it will have a smaller price point then natal, Wii developers will flock to a system that has hd graphics and a wii like remote. I have been told so many times by gamers that ps3 graphics with wii remote would kill everything else out. I would have to agree. I think the wond will be very good. But i guess we will all see when it happens.

I thought it was announced for Spring 2010 (March 20th - June 20th).  That's about 6 months.  

The most sane comment I've read in this entire thread.

On a different note, when d'you guys think Sony will unveil their own Nunchuk to connect to their Popsicle? We all know it's gonna happen, they might as well just go ahead and do it right now. :/

I have the exact same opinion. I think the Wand will have a decent success. Because its an already very succesful system. The other thing is Sony can update their eyetoy without a problem to a 3d camera and get the exact same games if Natal is a success. So Sony can theoretically offer both.

There is just ONE thing which can be a problem and destroy everything. It could erase the advantages of the pointer if there is no nunchuk-type device.

Natal can have a lot of areas where it could improve the handling with technology. It could have various operation areas. But i cant see the advantage in videogames of this generation. There is absolutely no thing i can think of where it could offer a great experience with todays console technology. 

And the lack of a tactile feedback is another major flaw. I bet this will be the reason why it wont be a success on the Xbox360. I hated the eyetoy it is awful it dont feel good to play those games.

Natal could support the traditional controller this could led to a advantage vs the PS Wand/and hopefully PS Nunchuk. But honestly I dont know how this could look.

But even if it will be a success to make an significant impact on sales it would have to be a gigantic success. 2011 would be the peak year of the Xbox360 but such a late peak is unlikely especially with an average succesful console like the Xbox360. The PS3 will match easily the 2008 Xbox figures in 2010 that would mean that the Xbox would have to be even higher then that in 2011. To stop the trend of the PS3 outselling the Xbox360. The Xbox had a major decline this year. And will continue to decline in 2010. The Xbox360 had a typical Console Life. WIth peak in its 3rd year and after that a steady decline. Natal would be the first add on which destroyed the trend and if it really led to outselling the PS3 it would be a miracle which has never happened before. MS will push the Natal and it will sell good. But it wont move consoles. Why should it. The Xbox is already an aging console by december 2010 its an old console its NOT a PS1 and PS2 that are the only consoles which had a long life the others died 6 years after its launch.

The failure of natal depends heavily on the expectations. If the Expectations are it will sell some million units and give a permanent 20% boost to slow down the decline of the Xbox360 it could be a success. That would mean 2010 holidays>=2009 holidays (even that is hard to achiev) But if someone thinks that the Xbox360 will get a constant 50-100% boost over years to outsell the PS3 or even a 200-300% boost to outsell the Wii he is just crazy in my eyes.

Sony doesn't seem to be prioritizing the Wand too much, in their hype and PR (though they haven't been hyping their 2010 much at all of late. Perhaps they're waiting for the holiday to die off)

Natal is something i don't think Microsoft has thought through entirely. But i'll wait for the final product to make that judgement, but they're blowing their own chances at hype, and i think Natal's peculiarity is a double-edged sword. If developers are having a hard time wrapping their brains around the Wiimote, how the hell are they going to get Natal right? But on the other end, that uniqueness could help it

Ultimately, i think they'll underperform, but it'll mostly be due to a failure by publishers (including Sony and MS) to properly utilize it, not because of the hardware itself.

It's releasing in March going by RE5AE (which Capcom's expecting 300k for), that's about 3 months away.   Western release may be later I'd guess, maybe to get more titles ready.

In other news, Ubisoft mentioned in their conference call that they'll have 5 PSphere games and 10 Natal games for next year.  70% new IPs (to each platform I'd guess?), with a strong focus on casual games (get ready for Petz/Imagine/Rabbids/UShape HD!).

Hmm... how will each one fair? Let me take a look at my thoughts:

Sony Wand- I don't know about this one. Little to no hype or expectations are known, outside of Sony's internal (and unreleased) expectations. It could go meh, but if that's what Sony expects (or claims to expect), they can call it a "success." I think that's part of why they're keeping quiet- they want to see the adaption before they say much.

As for the view of the public, it's not going to do too well. It will be seen by many as a copy of the Wiimote, and nothing new is offered. (Both require a device on the TV, both are handheld remote-shaped pointing devices, etc.) Unless virtually every casual game leaves the Wii for PS3 (which I don't see happening), it's not going to be received well. I see this one failing, despite what Sony says publically later.

Natal- This one has some of the opposite problems of the wands. This thing has been overhyped. This has the good side of keeping it in the news and in people's minds, but it also means that they're going to have a lot to live up to, and I question if they can. (I'm seeing a case similar to what Wii fanboys did with The Conduit.) Microsoft has said they'd like to do even more with Natal, stating that they could see it replacing the TV remote and the computer mouse (in 2 seperate statements). If they want to see this, though, they will need to work with some 3rd-party hardware companies to get it included.

And the public's view? I see it being mixed. The distrustful will see it as their TV watching them, and stay as far away as possible from it. Others may love the idea of not having to look for their remote/controller. Those who look for the newest gadget may be swayed toward this also. Will it be too little, too late, or the thing that revives the 360? I'm really not sure, but I lean toward failing, for 2 reasons. First, again, its expectations are too high. It's not going to make them. (And many Sony and Nintendo fanboys will call it a failure.) Secondly, well... there was this thing called the U-Force. Remember that? Yeah...