NSMB Wii
FW - 650K
LT - 2.5-3 m
NSMB Wii should open above MK Wii but lower than SSBB. 3m is a big barrier for console game this gen in Japan. NSMB Wii might get close to it but fail to get over it.

Samurai Warriors 3
FW - 120K
LT - 220K
SW3 is higher on the most wanted chart than Tekken, Bayonetta, and even ToG. Although that's not an absolute standard on how a game would open (as NSMB Wii is nowhere to be found on such chart), it does show that the game is somewhat anticipated. It should do decent.

Tales of Graces
FW - 140K
LT - 250K
Somehow I don't think ToG is as anticipated as past Tales games. It will sell better than DotNW but my expectation for the game is certainly lowered from it was first announced.

Final Fantasy XIII
FW - 1.1m
LT - 1.8-2m
Based on the Japanese preview, the preorder has slowed after the rush when the release date was announced. While there is no doubt FFXIII will be the best selling PS3 game in Japan, it would have a hard time to break 2 m lifetime. This will definitely be the lowest selling main FF game after FFVII made it big (exluding FFXI).

NSMB Wii
FW: 750k
LTD: 3 million

Tales of Graces
FW: 160k
LTD: 290k

Final Fantasy XIII
FW: 1.6 million
LTD: 2.4 million

The first week of December is going to be big for the wii.

Final Fantasy XIII
FW: 1,250,000
LTD: 1,900,000

NSMB Wii
FW: 500,000
LTD: 2,400,000

Tales of Graces
FW: 190,000
LTD: 320,000

Samurai Warriors 3
FW: 45,000
LTD: 85,000

Hmmm. May as well throw some numbers out...

Tales of Graces - just under Tales of Vesperia (overall)
FW: 260k
LT: 420k

NSMB Wii - around Mario Kart's size. Unsure if 2D Mario is really bigger than MK on consoles, as it was beat even on the SNES...
FW: 700k
LT: 3m

FFXIII - Sales hurt by smaller userbase, and declining popularity
FW: 1.4m
LT: 2m

I don't know anything about Samurai Warriors, so I won't touch it.

I'm probably going to be wrong, but I never change my predictions.

FF XIII week 1: 2 million

Mind you I made that prediction around E3 2006...

So far

I think NSMBWii can pass 1 mil first week
according to the data here NSMB DS did over 900k first week
mario kart ds did over 200k fw while mario kart wii did over 500k fw
if a 2d mario game is more popular than the mario kart series and if nsmbwii were to follow mario karts lead and sale more than its ds counter part its fw than it could past 1 mil. although there are factors i'm not aware of like how much was NSMB DS pre ordered and if they were hig or low. i know ToG is the most preordered wii game currently so i don't if that means lack of interest or if the people who intend to buy mario games just choose not to preorder. i would think the latter since I'm pretty sure NSMB wii will sell amazing over in japan since 2d mario > 3d Mario games

NSMBWii:
FW: 600.000-800.000
LTD: 2.900.000

FFXIII:
FW: 1.000.000-1.500.000
LTD: 2.5000.000

NSMBWII

FW: 650K

LTD: 3,500K

Samurai Warriors 3

FW: 120K

LTD: 250K

Tales of Graces:

FW: 200K

LTD: 350K

Final Fantasy XIII:

FW: 1,400K

LTD:2,200K

Maybe I'm expecting a little high, but I think that is possible because is Christmas dates.