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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Sales for FFXIII, NSMBWii, ToG and SW3 in Japan

Release Dates


New Super Mario Bros Wii - 03rd Dec 09

 

Samurai Warriors 3 - 03rd Dec 09

Tales of Graces - 10th Dec 09

Final Fantasy XIII - 17th Dec 09

 

First Week and LTD



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

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I'd say

NSMBWii

FW - 700K

LTD - 2.7m

Samurai Warriors 3

FW - 100K

LTD - 150K

Tales of Graces

FW - 290K

LTD - 400K

Final Fantasy XIII

FW - 1.4m

LTD - 2.3m



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

NSMB Wii:

First Week -- 650K

LTD -- 3 Million

Samurai Warriors 3:

First Week -- 130K

LTD -- 250K

Tales Of Graces:

First Week -- 270K

LTD -- 500K

FINAL FANTASY XIII:

First Week -- 1.5 Million

LTD: 2.2 Million



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Sengoku Musou 3 (Wii)

First Week - 70K

LTD - 140K

Tales of Graces (Wii)

First Week - 150K

LTD - 230K

Final Fantasy XIII (PS3)

First Week 1.6M- 1.9M

LTD - 2.30M



Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.



           

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I'll start off with what I know the best, so NSMB Wii.

NSMB Wii should have a good chance at Mario Kart Wii esque numbers. If you go to the DS, NSMB Wii is far more popular (50% more) there than MKDS is. So, I believe suspecting that MKWii esque sales is a low-end makes sense.

Thus, 2.5 million seems to be the low-end. The high-end would be getting Wii Fit esque sales, which would result in ~ 3.5 million. I don't think NSMB Wii has a chance at fully managing Wii Fit/Wii Sports esque number, and that's why it's not ~ 4 million.

So, NSMB Wii should be [2.5, 3.5] million. If you want an exact number, 3 million.

 

FF13 is a tad harder. If we compare it to FFX, that launched on a base of 5.2 million, and sold 1.9 million first week. It finished with 3 million.

I think the Final Fantasy is somewhat weaker as a franchise now, and that along with the decreased base should lower the number a bit.

All in all, FF13 should sell 2.2-2.7 million, I guess. As a concrete number, say 2.4 million lifetime.

 

 

 



ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

FFXIII will at the very best hit 2m LTD in Japan. But that is very unlikely. My prediction is 1.75m LTD, 1.3m first week.

History: FFX has launched on a userbase of 4.7m and sold 1.75m first week, 2.32m LTD.



PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?

I don't know, it just seems high... Has any other PS3 game even broken the million barrier in Japan yet?



           

ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?

I don't know, it just seems high... Has any other PS3 game even broken the million barrier in Japan yet?

Nop

Top selling ps3 games in japan

  1. MGS4 - 0.71m
  2. GT5 Prologue  - 0.57m
  3. Minna no Golf 5 - 0.51m
  4. RE5 - 0.50m

 



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?