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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - In light of MW2, what can Halo Reach do?

MW2: 3 platforms

HaloReach: 1 platform

MW2 > Halo Reach

/thread



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NightAntilli said:
MW2: 3 platforms

HaloReach: 1 platform

MW2 > Halo Reach

/thread

MW2 360 > Halo Reach.



100$ X360 + Natal + User base > 45 million + Very good "Halo" = Yes it can!



I can tell you this it will sell more than Halo 3.



 

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In terms of week one sales, most likely less than MW2. In terms of LTD sales for 360, Reach should win.



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xerostomia said:

I posted this in the main thread about MW2 sales numbers. I personnaly believe that Halo Reach will outsell MW2 on Xbox easily. Several things to factor. Halo 3 sold 3.8 million copies with an install base of 11.7 million (attach rate of 32.5%). MW2 sells (maybe) 5.5 million copies on an install base of ~33 million (attach rate of 16.67%). In the absolute worst case scenario, if Reach has the same attach ratio, the user base will be 7-9 million more, thus final numbers will be in the 6.5 million range.

It would be unrealistic to assume a similar attach rate as Halo 3, but if we were to split the difference at ~24%, that would mean 1st week sales would be in the 10 miliion range. This again may seem unrealistic (or is it?). At 20% attach rate, just 3 percent more than MW2, week one sales would be 8 million. At an attach rate of 10% Reach would still sell 4 million copies (and we all know that is not happening).

With regards to promoting the game, nothing so far has come close to Halo 3. From Game fuel from Mountain dew, to its own toy line, megablocks, to costumes. Heck 7-11 was promoting buying the game from them as well. Reach will be so massively promoted, with much more media coverage, that it is entirely possible that Reach could outsell MW2 in TOTAL sales if attch rate approaches 25%. My kids were 6 and 4 when Halo 3 was released, and they wanted Halo toys and wanted to be master chief for halloween, and they had never even seem me play the game. They were just massively aware of the media blitz. Now, 2 years latter, they are Halo junkies, love ODST's, love Sargent Johnson, love all the Spartans, have tons of Megablocks Halo toys. My older son loves Halo Wars. They are already asking when they can play Reach. All his friends, when they come over, all they play is some Halo game or another. Just like Star Wars, Halo is touching another generation, and its popularity is getting more widely noted.

The funny thing about Halo is that even though many people bitch and complain about the game, they still buy and play the game, complain some more, then play some more. Many of the die hard MW2 players were Halo2/3 players that migrated to the CoD frachise. But most of them will still slip the disc in and play it quietly and then come back to the boards and complain some more. 4- player co-op, more details about a great sci-fi story, imaculate match making, quite possible more inovations like Forge, etc, more tie ins with Halo Waypoint, will make the single player part shine. Likely the multiplayer will be more the same, but why break something that is not broken. Uptill MW2, Halo 3 is still the most played game on Live.


Reach will easily outsell MW2 on the Xbox, and has a realistic chance of outselling MW2 on all platforms.

my problem with your arugument is that you base it purely on attach ratio.  that makes the assumption that simply having a larger instal base automatically results in a larger fan base for your franchise.  i offer as counter evidence: MGS.  4 games with huge differences in intal base at the time of release and yet fairly consistent LTD numbers.

 


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Konami 9.5 9.3 9.8 4.29m 12th Jun 08 28th Jun 09
2 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Konami N/A 9.0 N/A 4.06m 17th Nov 04 01st Jul 09
3 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty Konami N/A 9.7 N/A 5.58m 12th Nov 01 01st Jul 09
4 Metal Gear Solid Konami N/A 9.3 N/A 5.59m 21st Oct 98 06th Sep 09


Modern Warfare has surpassed Halo as a franchise.

Did even Halo 3 have as much hype as MW2? No, it didn't. Did companies delay their games to 2008 in fear of Halo 3? No. Modern Warfare is, quite simply, the largest franchise currently in existence on the HD consoles, and it isn't going to be passed again this gen.

The "increased userbase" argument is illogical. What does userbase have to do with anything? How many people who didn't buy Halo 3 will buy Halo: Reach? Resistance: Fall of Man launched on a userbase of...what, 200,000? It went on to sell 3.5 million. Resistance 2 won't get near that, after launching on a 17.5 million userbase.

Going back to the Halo franchise, let's look at recent Halo game openings:

Halo Wars (hear me out): 609,000
Halo ODST (again, hear me out): 2.2 million

Both quite a way from MW2's 5.5 million. Yes, yes, an RTS and an "expansion". Of course they're not going to sell on Halo 3 levels. But, they are both iterations in the Halo franchise, and if they aren't selling, is the Halo fanbase decreasing? What I'm saying is that all of these spin-offs could be decreasing the popularity of the franchise. I wouldn't hesitate to call it milking, actually. Milking does not help a franchise, it runs it into the ground. Look at Guitar Hero, or Tony Hawk. Granted, those two had it a lot worse than Halo. But it was milking all the same.

So, I think it will sell around 3 million first week. Excellent sales, of course. Fantastic. More than most games can hope to sell in their entire lifetime. But, below Halo 3. And WELL below MW2.



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mw2 will sale more because its on both ps3 and 360, but im sure halo reach will be a great game, im really looking forward to it, i own all the halos, it will sale around 5 million copies the first week i think.



Kantor said:
Modern Warfare has surpassed Halo as a franchise.

Did even Halo 3 have as much hype as MW2? No, it didn't. Did companies delay their games to 2008 in fear of Halo 3? No. Modern Warfare is, quite simply, the largest franchise currently in existence on the HD consoles, and it isn't going to be passed again this gen.

The "increased userbase" argument is illogical. What does userbase have to do with anything? How many people who didn't buy Halo 3 will buy Halo: Reach? Resistance: Fall of Man launched on a userbase of...what, 200,000? It went on to sell 3.5 million. Resistance 2 won't get near that, after launching on a 17.5 million userbase.

Going back to the Halo franchise, let's look at recent Halo game openings:

Halo Wars (hear me out): 609,000
Halo ODST (again, hear me out): 2.2 million

Both quite a way from MW2's 5.5 million. Yes, yes, an RTS and an "expansion". Of course they're not going to sell on Halo 3 levels. But, they are both iterations in the Halo franchise, and if they aren't selling, is the Halo fanbase decreasing? What I'm saying is that all of these spin-offs could be decreasing the popularity of the franchise. I wouldn't hesitate to call it milking, actually. Milking does not help a franchise, it runs it into the ground. Look at Guitar Hero, or Tony Hawk. Granted, those two had it a lot worse than Halo. But it was milking all the same.

So, I think it will sell around 3 million first week. Excellent sales, of course. Fantastic. More than most games can hope to sell in their entire lifetime. But, below Halo 3. And WELL below MW2.

Yeah but by your logic then a few weeks ago you'd say that MW2 wasn't going to sell because World Of War's opening sales weren't that great compared to MW1's overall sales, there are many people like me who never liked COD until MW and weren't at all interested in WAW but were first in the queue for MW2! Just like I bought Halo 1,2 and 3 and not Halo Wars! And if Halo is getting 'milked' then COD is just as bad! Yes the IW ones are much better and technically them Treyarch do one every two years but there's still a COD game every year without fail! But I presume the IW games are becoming Modern Warfare now rather than COD tbf. If Reach looks like it'll be as good as the first three at least then it'll AT LEAST do 3 million so I'm saying it'll sell near to MW2's Xbox sales but it won't beat it but who knows?



Are some of you folks THAT dense?!?!?! I'm talking about MW2 360...NOT MW2 All platforms (which btw, outsold Halo 3 already in MW)...read the freaking thread before commenting.



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