How would releasing another new platform kill the Wii. The people buying the Wii right now are not core gamers. They are casual gamers and Blue Ocean non-gamers. Do you really think some over weight soccer mom is going to purchase a 300$ system over a 100$ system? As long as Nintendo keeps the strategy the same the Wii will continue to sell.

PS3 had backwards compatability, They removed backwards compatability because they were loosing to much money on it. The next Nintendo console might have backwards compatability, but as you pointed out Nintendo doesn't always follow the same formula. Nintendo has had only one home console with backwards compatability and now you think that it means they will always have backwards compatability? Even if Wii2 has backwards compatability the non-gamers aren't going to stop buying Wii's. As long as Nintendo maintains a steady stream of casual games, as they have been doing up untill now the Wii will continue to sell.

You know say excluding that casual market. How would releasing new hardware exclude the casual demographic. The non-gamers who are picking up Wii's right now aren't picking up Wii's for graphics or even for games. They are buying Wii's because of software like WiiFit and WiiMusic etc...etc... Nintendo's next console would still incorporate Nintendo's casual software. But lets face it non-gamers aren't going to want to spend another 300$ on a new console instead they will keep buying Wii's. Which was my point Nintendo won't be killing the Wii by releasing a new platform. If anything the price cut and flow of software (If it is backwards compatable) will invigerate the Wii and keep in selling for years to come!

Let me get this straight, you think Nintendo can completely ignore Microsoft? If the 720 comes out in 2010 you think Nintendo can just keep going their merry way and that software/hardware will continue to sell. You just said that launching a new platform would kill the Wii did you not? So if Microsoft launches a new casual platform with the 720 having Natal built in with a new Fitness title and how about some bowling and sports thrown in. No Nintendo can just ignore Microsoft, Sony's the only real threat lol I laugh my head off just thinking about what you are implying.

As for Sony copying Nintendo, I'd say the Wand has already done that. The next Nintendo console if backwards compatable as you say and if it retains similiar control functionality. What is their for Sony to copy? Incase you haven't noticed Sony has already copied Nintendo and delaying the release of the next console would not prevent Sony from copying, it would simply delay the inevitable!

Crushing the competition, theirs something called momentum, right now Nintendo has the momentum but if Nintendo allows the competition to steal that momentum (720/PS4) then they will loose it for good. Just look at PlayStation2 it had the momentum but Microsoft launched the X-Box 360 and suddenly that momentum started to fade fast, Sony never got the PS3 to market for over a year. By the time Sony's machine made it to market the momentum was gone.

If the 720 or PS4 launch a year or so before Nintendo does, they will steal that momentum. Think about it a second. If a Natal based X-Box hits the market at 250$ or 300$ according to your own conclusion the Wii will begin to fail. If Nintendo doesn't respond immediatly the war will be won. Even look at the last generation the PS2 launches in 1999, by the time the GameCube launches in 2001 the war is over and Nintendo had no chance of catching up.

If 720 launches in fall 2010 and the next Nintendo console doesn't reach shelves in Christmas 2011, its over for Nintendo. As you said a new console would kill the Wii. Whether that new console comes from Nintendo or Microsoft either way according to you the Wii will die.

I myself believe a bit of what you believe and a bit contrary to your belief.

A) I don't believe the next Nintendo console will automatically kill the Wii. Even if its backwards compatable. Infact backwards compatability will encourage developers to maintain support of the Wii regardless of the power of Nintendo's next console.

B) If the competition gets more then a year head start Nintendo will loose the momentum, making a new Nintendo console unviable. A new Nintendo console would tank if it has similiar controls to Wii and is released more then a year after the competition. The Wii itself would begin loosing momentum fast and both platforms would die.

In other words if the Wii is to survive ten years, and if Nintendo is to repeate its success with Wii. Then a new console is needed within a year of the competition. If Nintendo launches first they'd even have a greater advantage and the Wii would not be killed, non-gamers would still be willing to shell out 100-150$ to buy the Wii despite the new hardware on the market.

Your thinking like a hardcore gamer, your thinking of how past generations have worked. You need to remember that gamers aren't whats selling the Wii, and a new platform will be initially supported by gamers (A totally seperate demographic)! Eventually Wii owners would begin to upgrade but as long as software kept coming for the Wii it would not stop selling!

^It won't be a $300 system vs. a $100 system, the next Nintendo console won't be over $250, Iwata isn't stupid, he knows people won't be as interested in a system at that price, and the Wii is no where near $100 and won't be for a good long while, why price cut when its still selling this well.

Virtual console and the BW compatibility with the GCN was a positive reason to buy a Wii, why would Nintendo abandon that? If the casual games are playable on the new system, for only $50 more, why would they buy a Wii? And do you really think Nintendo can support two consoles fully, they don't have the teams.

Then you'd be hurting the new system, think about it, the Wii was a success because of the expanded market, why would they try and exclude them from the new console and lose that success.

NATAl won't be a success, they don't have the software to challenge the Wii, and yeah Nintendo can ignore them for a year or two, they ignored them with the 360, they launched a year later, they can do that again.

Delaying the inevitable is enough to give Nintendo market dominance and you really think Nintendo doesn't have something up their sleeve, look at the vitality sensor.

Momentum is a ridiculous concept, there's no momentum across generations, you need to come out with the system that appeal the most, and Nintendo can do that by disrupting the market again and they can launch last to do that.

No they won't steal momentum, because they can't disrupt the market like Nintendo can.

No it won't kill the Wii, because NATAL won't have the software to challenge the Wii.

No it won't they'll want to develop for the new system with its higher graphics

No it won't Nintendo can always disrupt the market like with the Wii and crush Sony and MS

Wrong if they launch first the Wii will die and their competitors will copy and release competing systems which will kill Nintendo's new system before it can gain dominance.

Yes Wii would stop selling because software would stop coming Nintendo can't support two consoles

Your arguments only prove why the new Wii system won't come in 2011, your arguments don't take into account how the market works or how Nintendo works or how Sony and MS work

See Nintendo launching in 2011 would kill momentum for the Wii, as Nintendo can't support two consoles at once, and third parties would only develop for the newer system, and the small price difference and BW compatibility would result in people preferring the new system and it would give MS and Sony a chance to see what Nintendo was dong and release something to counter, thereby possibly preventing Nintendo from gaining the control the Wii has.

Better for Nintendo to launch last and disrupt the PS4 and 720, when they try to compete with the Wii.

The reason the GCN failed by launching a year later was it wasn't different than the other systems, it was too similar and didn't disrupt, Nintendo's next console has to have something different, something disruptive, so launching later would be a good move, makes it harder to copy.

He's basically saying not at this time. Wii still has at least a few years left in it.

2010 is too early, imo, for a new console. While logistics prevail that Wii HD could be done, it isn't common practice for Nintendo. I'd expect a 2011 release of Nintendo's next home console. After all, 2012 is 6 years from the release of the Wii. The GC came out in 2001 in the US, with the Wii 5 years later. The N64 came out in 1996 in the US, and the GC came out 5 years later. The SNES was released in 1991, and the N64 came out 5 years later. The NES came out in the US in 1985, and the SNES came out 6 years later.

What I'm saying is, Nintendo seems to be pretty consistent with a 5 year life cycle, with a max of a 6 year cycle. Since the Wii came out in 2006, 2011 would fit the pattern properly, with a max stretch to 2012.

I wouldn't be shocked to hear about Nintendo's next system at E3 2010, but we won't be getting an "HD enhancement" as Pachter seems to think.

^ NES launched in 1983 in Japan, so that's seven years, not five, ignoring the Japanese launch just to fit in with the Idea that it is five years doesn't not help your argument, NES was seven years out, and no Nintendo console since has been as popular or as dominant as the NES, only Wii looks able to reach that level, in addition Nintendo doesn't launch first, NES was an exception because the console Market was more or less non-existent when it launched, so why would Nintendo shorten to a five year cycle when its competitors have not launched? Your argument is flawed, Nintendo is selling the most why give that up to launch first and give their competitors a chance to copy them, while at the same time surrendering the sales and profits of the Wii?

Avinash, I think the NES will continue to be the most dominant console Nintendo ever made for a long time...I may be wrong here, but at its peak, didn´t the NES achieve like 80% of the market or something like that?

The Wii is still struggling to get to 50%...the mighty DS is close to 70%, which is a major accomplishement...but relative to its time, the NES was practically a monopoly.

^Yeah it was close to that, which is why I said that Wii is the console that comes closest so far, unless Nintendo decides to kill it prematurely by releasing a successor, it'll probably sell for a while after the PS3 and 360 are replaced

Avinash, you mean that as in 'home' consoles, right?...because if you include handhelds too, then the DS is far closer to the NES than the Wii.

yes, consoles are consoles, handhelds are handhelds