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Ps3 winning next gen console race? so far? guess its how you look at it

Forums - Sales Discussion - Ps3 winning next gen console race? so far? guess its how you look at it

Last week's NPD sales data confirmed Nintendo's dominance at the register in both the handheld and console spaces. The Wii's lower price point pits the most heated (and arguably "next-gen") console war between Microsoft and Sony. When NPD reported that Sony sold just 127k PlayStation 3s in the U.S. in February, it's easy to suggest that the company is in dire straits, but looking at the path tread last year by the Xbox 360, Sony is actually on familiar ground. During its first four months at retail, Microsoft's Xbox 360 was supply constrained but still managed a sell-through in the U.S. of 1.02M consoles through February 2006, according to NPD figures. With suffocating supply constraints during the November launch period, Sony's PlayStation 3 still outsold the Xbox 360 during the same four-month launch window with 1.06M consoles sold through February 2007. Briefly ignoring just how supply constrained the 360 was during that four month period, the fact that the PlayStation 3 has outsold the Xbox 360 over the same period in its life span despite costing $200 more per unit isn't a something that should get lost amidst the cries of doom and gloom for Sony's platform. How much more would the Xbox 360 have sold had supply not be so constrained in the first four months after launch? After selling 160k units in February of 2006, the Xbox 360 went on to sell 192k units the following month before bouncing back in April's NPDs with its biggest month since the November launch with 295K units sold. That 295K units would also be the second biggest month for PlayStation 3 sales, but Sony's biggest month wasn't the November launch, rather it was December where the system sold 491K units. What does this mean for Sony? Considering the system's higher price point, if the platform can keep pace with the Xbox 360 through the first year (while the software matures), regardless of the installed base, the system has to be considered semi-successful. A concerning statistic between the two platforms' first January and February months is the drop-off in sales for those two months. From January 2006 to February 2006 the Xbox 360 sales trailed off 36% (250K units down to 161k units). At the same point in its lifespan, Sony's PlayStation 3 experienced a drop-off of 48% (244K units down to 127K units). That drop in sales, considering the units are available at retail, is cause for concern. Yet, despite trailing off by 25% more than its supply-constrained predecessor, the system does still cost $200 more. Neither console had major exclusives during their first February (Virtua Fighter 5 on the PlayStation 3 sold 53K units) -- PlayStation 3 has Motorstorm and Oblivion in March, where Xbox 360 had Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter and Oblivion at the same point in time last year. Ubisoft's GRAW, which just shipped a sequel this month, sold 486K copies in March of 2006; Oblivion sold a combined 356K copies in March 2006 (there was a limited edition of the game, too). Yet, while software surged for the Xbox 360 in March of 2006, the system only sold 191K units -- its third worst month to date. What does that mean? Even if Motorstorm and Oblivion-PS3 sell with Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter and Oblivion-360 type performance at U.S. retail (the latter seems less likely considering pretty much the same game is coming to market a full year later), based on the Xbox 360's March 2006 sales, the PlayStation 3 may not see the sales surge some folks (myself included, albeit erroneously) said the system needed. In addition to selling more over the first four months of its lifespan than the Xbox 360's first four months, the biggest software seller on PlayStation 3 outsold the biggest 360 title during those same four months. According to NPD, Insomniac's Resistance: Fall of Man sold 430K units through February -- the biggest selling Xbox 360 launch game over same period -- Perfect Dark Zero -- sold 396K units across two SKUs. The system is selling better over the first four months of its lifespan than the 360 and its major launch game outsold the 360's best selling launch game during the same window. ....................................................................... I agree with this article if the ps3 can keep pace with the 360 through its 1st year it has to be considered a success.. what do you think?



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Everybody knows that Ps3 is selling better than 360 the same period. The PS3 is fighting with Wii,360 and ps2, when 360 was only fighting with ps2. But still the numbers is not good, it should be selling much better then 360. Cant believe that ps3 is selling better then 360 in USA the same period. But still the ps3 sales is bad compared to ps1/ps2 I cant wait for the NPD numbers for march.



 

The wall street journal said that the PS3 was going after the 360 w/ its upcoming HOME product. So that sounds good, as I think that microsoft games blow. Is the PS3 winning? I would tend to think that great launch day sales have absolutely nothing to do with its long-term popularity, only that many people in the EU and PAL countries were holding out for the PS3, even though I am glad of dat. I think that it is still up in the air as to who is going to do better in the LT future so we'll just have to see what the numbers say in the next couple of months, as these will tell a lot for the PS3's fortunes to come. Also, instead of saying that "The PS3 is clearly dominating the other inferior clunky consoles, it would be more appropriate to say that it is BACK IN the race, and hopefully to stay".



Yojimbo said: Everybody knows that Ps3 is selling better than 360 the same period. The PS3 is fighting with Wii,360 and ps2, when 360 was only fighting with ps2. But still the numbers is not good, it should be selling much better then 360. Cant believe that ps3 is selling better then 360 in USA the same period. But still the ps3 sales is bad compared to ps1/ps2 I cant wait for the NPD numbers for march.
MOTORSTORM and GOD OF WAR 2 should give ps3 a significant boost. GOD OF WAR 2 has already surpassed 1 m by theway. I think it would be MARCH's most selling game by FAR. a 2m is not highly unlikely. I expect 500~k for MOTORSTORM and perhaps a600--700k for GRAW 2.(x360)



Yojimbo said: I cant wait for the NPD numbers for march.
I can't either.



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dallas said: Yojimbo said: I cant wait for the NPD numbers for march. I can't either.
i dont think the march numbers are gonna tell the whole story i cant wait for the april numbers



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I think it should still be considered a failure. Why? Because, the 360 was not readily in stock until late March. Whereas the PS3 has been readily available in January for NA and Japan; and seems to be already fully in stock levels in EU. Also, you are talking about a machine, xbox, that had 1/5th the userbase of the ps2. Based on Sony's existing userbase they should be much higher right now. The ps2 has also been out for twice as long as the xbox. That means, more existing ps2 users should be ready to upgrade than the existing xbox users. ps3 has only sold about 2-3% of the ps2 userbase, whereas the xbox converted about 10% in the same time frame. I don't think the ps3 will match the 360's first year sales, and that must be considered a failure, at least up to that point. PS3 should still be sold out. Maybe the price is just too much to swallow and is having too large of a negative effect. I guess we shall see this holiday season.



I expect PS3 to outsell 360 in it's first year, largely because of similar sales in the west and higher sales in Japan..it should be at 8 or 9 million by the end of 2007



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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mridul said: Yojimbo said: Everybody knows that Ps3 is selling better than 360 the same period. The PS3 is fighting with Wii,360 and ps2, when 360 was only fighting with ps2. But still the numbers is not good, it should be selling much better then 360. Cant believe that ps3 is selling better then 360 in USA the same period. But still the ps3 sales is bad compared to ps1/ps2 I cant wait for the NPD numbers for march. MOTORSTORM and GOD OF WAR 2 should give ps3 a significant boost. GOD OF WAR 2 has already surpassed 1 m by theway. I think it would be MARCH's most selling game by FAR. a 2m is not highly unlikely. I expect 500~k for MOTORSTORM and perhaps a600--700k for GRAW 2.
I believe that God of War 2 is bad for the ps3 sales. People is going instead to buy more ps2. You r Motorstorm numbers seem way to high. I cant afford to hope that ps3 sales is going to be better in march. I have been way to optimistic too many times. So time will tell :P



 

The problem with that way of looking at it Bonafide, is that consoles sales don't occur in a vaccum. Sure the PS3 has comparable sales to the 360 launch aligned, but date aligned it's no contest. Right now the 360 has a huge userbase advantage, which is important in that it dictates game sales and even game announcements. The 360's slow start was ok because it was the only guy on the field. It's slow start is behind it and it picked up steam in time for the competition. The PS3 is off to a slow start too, but it'll have a harder time gaining ground since the copetition already has more consoles on the ground, more interest in the system, a lower price and new game announcements all the time. As for the 200 more argument. Saying a system's sales are succesful considering the price really means that the system isn't successful because of the price. Not to mention that right now, Sony is in no place to offer a price cut. However Microsoft is.



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Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

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