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Ten Week Countdown 2009!

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And out of interest, this is a table of our accuracies for the total 10 week figures... so it is these that were multiplied by 5 and added to your 10 weekly scores to get the overall total.

Finals Wii PS3 360 DS PSP
09tarheel 2 4 10 11 1
BHR-3 20 8 10 12 1
Blacksaber 44 24 9 1 8
Carl2291 26 9 32 6 17
darkjonnyx 12 14 27 3 4
Darthdevidem 11 11 8 1 12
dexorosourus 56 24 6 44 17
DMeisterJ 33 24 19 10 7
haxxiy 26 2 21 26 11
koffieboon 13 5 8 4 9
MANUELF 29 24 3 23 12
NinjaBlade360 23 18 17 3 1
non-gravity 16 8 22 8 2
Noobie 24 10 30 6 20
ph4nt 3 15 6 10 30
Pineapple 34 13 21 1 19
postofficebuddy 31 6 10 24 26
Skeezer 30 3 19 2 14
theprof00 17 7 12 8 37
TWRoO 13 15 7 3 14
Veggie 19 20 6 4 3
zexen_lowe 26 14 19 8 20
Zucas 20 24 10 1 7

         

         
Jadakiss1217 16 0 3    

         
Average 22 12 14 8 9

So in my case for example... my total score adding up my accuracies of each week is 684 using the most current VGC figures.... which is actually better than Darth who has 702. But as you can see above, Darth's predictions for the full ten weeks were overall closer:

Darthdevidem 11 11 8 1 12

compared to

TWRoO 13 15 7 3 14

5 X (11+11+8+1+12) = 215.... Darth gets 702 + 215 = 917 points
5 X (13+15+7+3+14) = 260.... I get 684 + 260 = 944 points

Which is why overall I am still in 4th behind Darth (if you see my previous post I have 944 and Darth has 917)



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the wii really screwed me up i think i would would of done alot better i had the wii the lowest out of al than most i really took a chance with thtat

b4 the countdown started and even in the beginning there the wii was doing like 200-300k less than last year i would of been lined up perfectly for the last 5-6 weeks

dont know wat happen the fanboyism in me took over didnt realize wat the price cut + nsmb could do i think its sales shocked most us considering YOY from jan- oct its sales were down then Nov-Dec they were up quite some wasnt expecting that

thats something me and crazzy are really working on getten rid of the fanboyism in me wen im predicting



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

TWRoO said:

And out of interest, this is a table of our accuracies for the total 10 week figures... so it is these that were multiplied by 5 and added to your 10 weekly scores to get the overall total.

Finals Wii PS3 360 DS PSP
09tarheel 2 4 10 11 1
BHR-3 20 8 10 12 1
Blacksaber 44 24 9 1 8
Carl2291 26 9 32 6 17
darkjonnyx 12 14 27 3 4
Darthdevidem 11 11 8 1 12
dexorosourus 56 24 6 44 17
DMeisterJ 33 24 19 10 7
haxxiy 26 2 21 26 11
koffieboon 13 5 8 4 9
MANUELF 29 24 3 23 12
NinjaBlade360 23 18 17 3 1
non-gravity 16 8 22 8 2
Noobie 24 10 30 6 20
ph4nt 3 15 6 10 30
Pineapple 34 13 21 1 19
postofficebuddy 31 6 10 24 26
Skeezer 30 3 19 2 14
theprof00 17 7 12 8 37
TWRoO 13 15 7 3 14
Veggie 19 20 6 4 3
zexen_lowe 26 14 19 8 20
Zucas 20 24 10 1 7

         

         
Jadakiss1217 16 0 3    

         
Average 22 12 14 8 9

So in my case for example... my total score adding up my accuracies of each week is 684 using the most current VGC figures.... which is actually better than Darth who has 702. But as you can see above, Darth's predictions for the full ten weeks were overall closer:

Darthdevidem 11 11 8 1 12

compared to

TWRoO 13 15 7 3 14

5 X (11+11+8+1+12) = 215.... Darth gets 702 + 215 = 917 points
5 X (13+15+7+3+14) = 260.... I get 684 + 260 = 944 points

Which is why overall I am still in 4th behind Darth (if you see my previous post I have 944 and Darth has 917)

You didnt have to single me out you know, meanie

So why did you count the "full 10 weeks prediction"? you could've pretended to "forget" to include them, no-one would've noticed!!!

That was a perfect scheme!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

^I singled myself out really, but added you because I noticed we swap places when the additional scores are added, so it's a good example to explain what happens.



7th. Ehhhhhh.

Thanks for another fun year.



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Shipment numbers for Nintendo and Microsoft seems to be pretty much in line with Vgchartz numbers, so there probably won't be big adjustments in Wii, DS and Xbox 360 numbers. Only Sony's platforms to go.

Twroo, I expected you to calculate to total numbers differently. I would have just compared the combined 10 week predictions with the actual 10 week sales just like you compared single weeks.



^What do you mean? "I would have just compared the combined 10..."

That's what I did.... the only difference being the 5* multiplier on the scores.

Each persons final score is:

(week 1 accuracy [see earlier for how I calculated accuracy] + Weeks 2-10 accuracy) + (5* Overall accuracy [Using the sum total of the persons predictions against the sum of VGCs figures])

I have a weeks break in the middle of February, I'm gonna give an update then to see how the numbers have changed.



Never mind, I misread something.

Btw, I don't think the total numbers have had a big impact on the end result with only small changes in the ranking. This seems to indicate most people consistently over or underpredicted a console.



Numbers have changed considerably, but changes in the holiday window may still be minimal.



I should be able to post more details this weekend, but this is how the ranks are currently (this is in total, ie including the 5*total prediction)

 
Cons
Han
Total
1 09tarheel 559 Darthdevidem 222 koffieboon 906
2 koffieboon 684 koffieboon 222 09tarheel 976
3 ph4nt 689 TWRoO 232 Darthdevidem 1011
4 Jadakiss1217 733 Pineapple 278 TWRoO 1048
5 Darthdevidem 789 Skeezer 304 ph4nt 1210
6 theprof00 816 Zucas 345 theprof00 1287
7 TWRoO 816 Noobie 347 Skeezer 1300
8 BHR-3 875 Veggie 382 Zucas 1340
9 postofficebuddy 984 darkjonnyx 384 BHR-3 1343
10 non-gravity 990 non-gravity 405 Veggie 1385
11 Zucas 995 zexen_lowe 412 non-gravity 1395
12 Skeezer 996 09tarheel 417 darkjonnyx 1420
13 Veggie 1003 NinjaBlade360 438 zexen_lowe 1479
14 darkjonnyx 1036 BHR-3 468 NinjaBlade360 1526
15 haxxiy 1052 theprof00 471 Pineapple 1528
16 zexen_lowe 1067 ph4nt 521 Noobie 1564
17 NinjaBlade360 1088 Blacksaber 556 postofficebuddy 1649
18 MANUELF 1139 haxxiy 609 haxxiy 1661
19 Carl2291 1208 MANUELF 611 MANUELF 1750
20 Noobie 1217 DMeisterJ 615 Blacksaber 1905
21 Pineapple 1250 postofficebuddy 665 Carl2291 1982
22 Blacksaber 1349 Carl2291 774 DMeisterJ 2089
23 DMeisterJ 1474 dexorosourus 1119 dexorosourus 2660
24 dexorosourus 1541



 





  Average 924 Average 318 Average 1242