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When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

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Well, you can't lose what you don't have!



 

  

 

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Most of the support Wii has was gained on the Gamecube. They've gotten very little extra as a result of Wii so far. How is Heavenly Sword, Lair, and Killzone a fair comparison with Nintendo's most established franchises? Certainly could sell well, but let's get back to the proven franchises I already talked about. Nintendo buried Retro and forced it to join them in a firesale. Which I think was brilliant, but it still doesn't make up for the losses. Multiplatform (read: Xbox 360 and PS3) makes sense as development costs rise, but regardless Sony's not losing those games. Thanks for the numbers covering Nintendo's historical position. Too bad numbers from 10 or 15 years ago fail to address: what have they done lately in the console space (sorry, but DS and GBA titles really don't count)? Wii Play/Sports and Zelda pretty much sum up the past few years. If PS2 weren't selling so well and developers weren't still releasing big games for it but instead something like GOW2 came out on PS3, wouldn't its sales jump? Wii is not detracting from PS3's sales at all, whether it's outselling it or not.



Shane said: Thanks for the numbers covering Nintendo's historical position. Too bad numbers from 10 or 15 years ago fail to address: what have they done lately in the console space (sorry, but DS and GBA titles really don't count)? Wii Play/Sports and Zelda pretty much sum up the past few years. If PS2 weren't selling so well and developers weren't still releasing big games for it but instead something like GOW2 came out on PS3, wouldn't its sales jump? Wii is not detracting from PS3's sales at all, whether it's outselling it or not.
On the first issue Nintendo had 24 games pass 1 million on the GameCube for a total of 58.2 million sales despite it selling just over 20 million units. Sony also has 24 with a total of 71.3 million. So despite selling 5.5 times as many systems Sony has sold only about 20-25% more games. The DS difference is simply so staggering its no wonder you want to ignore it, Nintendo has a 2:1 advantage in systems and almost 40:1 advantage in games over 1 million sold. The Wii with only 6.5 million units shipped has 4 Nintendo (pretty much all of them) games over 1 million already! Super Paper Mario will be on that list by May autumn. That outnumbers the number of Sony games over 1 million on the PS3 by 4:1. I don’t know why Sony apologists insist on posting such ridiculous claims on a website with info that disproves it, but they do. Anyways, no the Wii won't cannibalize PS3 sales, because the PS3 and 360 are priced at a point where only the 40 million or so hardcore gamers/guys living in their mother's basement/guys with way too much money to spend will buy them. If any of those types buy a Wii it will be in addition to a PS3 and/or 360. The Wii is essentially alone in the 100 million casual/kiddie/niche gamer markets while also playing to the other 40 million. The only gamers who won't buy a Wii are diehard Sony and Xbox fanboys but there's a lot fewer of such types than they think. That's the source of the sell outs and mass demand which Nintendo didn't expect since it's been a long time since a Nintendo system tapped all the markets. The PS2 was squarely in the place of the Wii in its day, only minus more than 1 mega selling 1st Party titles the Wii has.



If we go by the theory of sales on a per console basis, the biggest franchise of the moment, GTA, suddenly looks pretty small. DS needs to be ignored because Gameboy, Gameboy Color, Gameboy Advance, and Gameboy whatever else never did anything to help (or hinder) a Nintendo console. DS isn't going to change that any. And here we go back in circles again about how Nintendo's been outselling Sony for 3 months and it's the end of the world and PlayStation is dead and Sony is going to file for bankruptcy next month unless Nintendo agrees to buy them. At the current PS3 price, there's definitely a much more finite group of potential buyers, but as PS3 and 360 hit lower and lower prices, Wii just looks more like a toy. PS2 and Wii aren't in the same ballpark. PS2 had all the developers, all the exclusives, the best brand in the industry, no pricing advantage but it didn't matter, and got to dictate who did what when, why, and how. Nintendo has no power and no exclusives worth anything, aside from their own, nor should anyone expect them to get any of that any time soon.



It may be news to had core gamers and Sony but most people who buy a video game system understand they are buying a toy. I don't know why so many PS3 fans think that price cuts occur in a vacuum or that Sony can just price cut its way to success. Nintendo could go to $100 more easily than Sony can go to $400 for example. Heck seeing as initially the sale price of the Wii is only just greater than the loss on the PS3, Nintendo could give them away for the same financial hit as Sony is taking at $600. A hit Nintendo could much more easily bear to begin with. Eventually the PS3 could come down to a mass market price, but by that point we'll be talking about GTA VI, VF VII, FFXV, DQ XI, etc. on the Wii (those that aren't exclusive would be special editions llike Godfather). That being said if you read in particular the Japan point of no return thread you'll see that not many are saying it's time to put up the for sale signs over at Sony. The PS3 will manage to do alright at the least, probably GameCube level as a minimum. It may indeed have a comeback but selling this poorly over its first 4 months despite being in supply, losing 3rd parties left and right, losing almost all of its exclusives outside of 1st party, while a competing system has the opposite happening is not a mere hiccup in the permanent dominance of the Playstation. I think it's fair to include the DS but whatever on that one. The PS2 also had mass market priced competitors which the Wii does not. The Wii's 3rd party support is a bit late in coming but it is coming. Fortunately, being a Nintendo system 1st party games can more than fill the gap until they arrive late this year and into next year. MySims isn't worth anything? I wouldn't be surprised if that game makes households have two Wiis, one for mother/gf/sister to play MySims and the other for father/bf/brothers. The only next gen console with a DQ game isn't worth anything (in Japan at least)? Nights though I'm not sure how popular it really is, seems to be generating an inordinate amount of internet buzz though? At the moment it is a bit slim but with GTA support up in the air and FF's fate not fully resolved (apparently we will here about that in 6 weeks) and more and more 3rd party announcements every week that will change. It's probably best for Nintendo that it not have that kind of dictatorial power over 3rd parties again. We saw what the power trip is causes did to Nintendo after 2 cycles and now we're seeing what its doing to Sony after 2 cycles also.



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Thanks for the numbers covering Nintendo's historical position. Too bad numbers from 10 or 15 years ago fail to address: what have they done lately in the console space (sorry, but DS and GBA titles really don't count)? Wii Play/Sports and Zelda pretty much sum up the past few years. The only numbers I posted were post-PS2 launch. 2001 forward, really. In that time, Nintendo games have hit the 4 million mark 17 times to Sony's 2. So all other things being equal, Nintendo's first party would win hands down. Of course, all other things weren't equal with PS2 vs. GC anymore than they are with PS3 vs. Wii. Now, as for the idea that all of Wii's current support was picked up during the GC era... Well... There's been almost 1/3rd as many games announced for Wii as came out during GC's entire lifetime... That's about 225 for Wii, about 700 for GC. PS2 had 2500, and currently PS3 has about the same amount as Wii announced, though they fall behind when adding in downloadable content of course. And with twice the price, they might need twice the games... Note: those numbers for known games are based off of Gamespot and Wikipedia lists.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

A price cut is not an automatic way to success. However, PS3 will sell better at $200 than it will at $600. That's just simple economics. Why would GTA and FF appear on the Wii? More to the point: how? DQ I could see as at least a physical possibility because Enix has never been big on technology, but I can't see Take Two or Square wanting to dumb their games down enough to fit on Wii, thus also forcing themselves to ignore Sony and/or Microsoft. If Nintendo hadn't slashed the technology, I could see more potential, but they've cut their own legs off when it comes to franchises like this. What little Sony loses in terms of third parties, they recoup it. As to exclusives, we began to see them disappearing last generation. The cost of games and ease of porting (to 360) makes that a sensible business decision. MySims has Crystal Chronicles written all over it (with the exception that FF is a worthwhile console brand), but even with that said, it is a step in the right direction for Nintendo. Nintendo had a couple good years following Gamecube launch, but we've seen very little out of them until recently aside from the perennial Mario Party. Looking at the Dec 02 TRSTS, I see 168 Gamecube games on the list (12 from Nintendo). Throw in what's going to be released next year and beyond that we already know about, and I'd assume the numbers get pretty similar.



Why would GTA and FF appear on the Wii?
So you really think that Rockstar is going to ignore the Wii? You think that Square-Enix won't allocate more resources to the console that's dominating their homeland?
If Nintendo hadn't slashed the technology, I could see more potential, but they've cut their own legs off when it comes to franchises like this. What little Sony loses in terms of third parties, they recoup it. As to exclusives, we began to see them disappearing last generation. The cost of games and ease of porting (to 360) makes that a sensible business decision.
You wrote the reason yourself. Let the PS3 and 360 have almost identical libraries, while the Wii does it's own thing.
MySims has Crystal Chronicles written all over it
It also has the potential to be a massive multi-million seller to all 3 regions.
Looking at the Dec 02 TRSTS, I see 168 Gamecube games on the list (12 from Nintendo). Throw in what's going to be released next year and beyond that we already know about, and I'd assume the numbers get pretty similar.
Before E3'06 last year pretty much everybody had written off Nintendo in the home console wars. Between E3'06 and launch most were cautiously optimistic, at best. Now we have the Wii breaking record sales and still sold out at the end of March, going into 6 months after launch. The PS3 is faltering bigtime in Japan, with no end in sight for now. North America isn't too far away from this either. Europe's 574k launch with plenty of stock scenario isn't exactly mind-blowing either. The 360 is doing well in North America, so-so in Europe, and non-existant in Japan. Guess who's doing fantastic in all 3 regions?



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

Shane said: A price cut is not an automatic way to success. However, PS3 will sell better at $200 than it will at $600. That's just simple economics. Why would GTA and FF appear on the Wii? More to the point: how? DQ I could see as at least a physical possibility because Enix has never been big on technology, but I can't see Take Two or Square wanting to dumb their games down enough to fit on Wii, thus also forcing themselves to ignore Sony and/or Microsoft. If Nintendo hadn't slashed the technology, I could see more potential, but they've cut their own legs off when it comes to franchises like this.
Lets see... GTA is a series with sales potential around 17 million (PS2+XBox sales of SA=nearly 17 million)... How is that game going to sell that much with current 360+PS3 sales? Does it make sense to spend 25 or 30% more "dumbing down" the game to reach 60% more customers with a Wii version? Even a delayed Wii version? FF13... Square are going to want that to sell 2.5 or 3 million in Japan. PS3 might not reach 2.5 million in Japan until next year sometime... Wii will reach it in a couple months, maybe sooner. They'll want another 4 or 5 million in the rest of the world, too. They might be looking at selling to 80% of the installed base in the West to pull those kinds of numbers. Again, does it make sense to spend 10-15% more for a 360 port, or 25-30% more for a Wii port, to expand your audience several times over? That's what third parties will be asking themselves. Now maybe they'll decide it isn't worth it... But then what about GTAIV 2, or FF14? Is Wii going to have 45 or 50% of the market at that point? Hmm.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Shane said: If Nintendo hadn't slashed the technology, I could see more potential, but they've cut their own legs off when it comes to franchises like this.
This is something I must ask about, Wii is more powerfull than PS2 which had GTA and FF. What is stopping these companies to at least doing spinoff on these series to Wii? Somehow I think this power race isn't that important as some people belive.
Shane said: What little Sony loses in terms of third parties, they recoup it. As to exclusives, we began to see them disappearing last generation. The cost of games and ease of porting (to 360) makes that a sensible business decision.
And here is a difference for Wii, it is actuly having some exclusivs you wont get on either 360 or PS3. So far they might not be that many, or with great names, but some games is coming to Wii that the other consols doesn't have if the sales will keep coming. So far we have: Cooking Mama Red Steel Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz Trauma Center: Second Opinion Sonic and the Secret Rings Elebits Super Swing Golf Up coming is: that dance/rytm game from EA (don't remeber the name) MySims Dragon Quest Swords Dews Adventure No More Heroes RE spinnoff (If I have missed anything please let me know.) Now these games might not be those games that you like but anyway it is showing that their is 3rd party exclusive that in compination with Nintendo games and a low entry cost will strengthen Wii place on the market. Meanwhile PS3 and xbox360 is losing 3rd party exclusives to each others, that might mean that in USA and EU (in japan the xbox360 is dead, so we can forgett about it there) the "war" might become xbox360 and PS3 vs Wii. Of course that is only speculation, but it might mean that Wii will grow strong because of this, which int turn might lead to more exclusiv 3rd party games.



 

 

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