Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)
PS3 has to gain momentum before we can worry about it losing it, which will happen eventually. You don't go from first to worst overnight. Unless you release a system with carts. We're looking at least at a 6 year lifespan and then another year or two tacked on before it starts to fade. I do think the more interesting question is when it will gain momentum, and I would agree with fall. I don't think we'll see anything as abysmal as February, with slow buildup throughout the year, but too much more than 300k prior to October isn't likely (and frankly not particularly necessary either).
PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone.
It has to build momentum first. I'll define this as "growing" monthly sales (per territory) of both software and hardware. It has failed to do this in the US, and also in Japan. We won't know about Europe for 1 or 2 months. Then.. once it builds sales, it has to "outsell" one of the other consoles. Easily doing this in Japan (360), but the difference (at the moment) is being made up in the US. So it comes down to Europe. Of course PS3 sales can pick up in the US (or 360 could pick up in Japan). Sony has one serious and obvious problem - public perception. Due to the early release, lots of software, and amazing performance (for its time) - the PS2 ruled all. This does NOT apply to the PS3, and I don't think will ever apply to the PS3 - the Wii has this generation by the balls. ... Again - its just like the PSP vrs DS - the PSP in its own right is doing ok - hardware, software, etc. The DS is killing it (and the gap widening) and the public KNOWS THIS. Sony's challenge is to ensure the SAME thing doesn't happen (or worse) with the PS3. They could get good/excellent sales - but if the Wii outsells it 2-1 for the entire generation (quite possible), the perception is that Sony will have "lost". (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).
Gesta Non Verba
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Planning on getting a PS3 sometime in July-August.
"The things we touch have no permanence."