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When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

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KBG29 said: Halo 3 and Smash Brothers will do very well for the 360 and wii respectivly, but in no way will they kill the PS3. The PS3 has a title to combat thouse games in all three regions, However, in Japan they have MGS4 which will sell very well compared to Lost Oddesy, but will only be a fraction of Samsh Bros. In the US they have Killzone which after the E3 07 showing will make Halo 3 a smaller impact, but it will still not be enoghf to outsell Halo, and samsh bros. will be 3rd in the US. In Europe Sony has an array of European titles that will crush any 360 or wii offering, the biggest are Singstar, Heavenly Swoard and Killzone. Also note that all of the big games on PS3 will be enjoyed world wide were as HAlo is very American only and smash bros is a huge game nerds brawl.
Just a question ... Why would Killzone outsell Super Smash Bros. in North America? Super Smash Bros. Melee sold 4 Million units in the US on the Gamecube and Killzone ended up selling about 600,000 units on the PS2. So far it looks like the Wii will be far more popular than the Gamecube and the PS3 will be far less popular than the PS2 so why would you assume that SSB:B would sell dramatically less units than its Gamecube version, and that Killzone 2 would sell far more units than its PS2 version?



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HappySqurriel said: KBG29 said: Halo 3 and Smash Brothers will do very well for the 360 and wii respectivly, but in no way will they kill the PS3. The PS3 has a title to combat thouse games in all three regions, However, in Japan they have MGS4 which will sell very well compared to Lost Oddesy, but will only be a fraction of Samsh Bros. In the US they have Killzone which after the E3 07 showing will make Halo 3 a smaller impact, but it will still not be enoghf to outsell Halo, and samsh bros. will be 3rd in the US. In Europe Sony has an array of European titles that will crush any 360 or wii offering, the biggest are Singstar, Heavenly Swoard and Killzone. Also note that all of the big games on PS3 will be enjoyed world wide were as HAlo is very American only and smash bros is a huge game nerds brawl. Just a question ... Why would Killzone outsell Super Smash Bros. in North America? Super Smash Bros. Melee sold 4 Million units in the US on the Gamecube and Killzone ended up selling about 600,000 units on the PS2. So far it looks like the Wii will be far more popular than the Gamecube and the PS3 will be far less popular than the PS2 so why would you assume that SSB:B would sell dramatically less units than its Gamecube version, and that Killzone 2 would sell far more units than its PS2 version?
Also KBG29 - How many of these killer PS3 apps will stay exclusives?? I know those produced by Sony will stay PS3... but the others? If anything, the 360 (and the Wii) are the only systems that can promise to deliver third party exclusives... so don't count your chicks before they hatch ( or is it chickens? or did I completly screw that up?)



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PS3 has to gain momentum before we can worry about it losing it, which will happen eventually. You don't go from first to worst overnight. Unless you release a system with carts. We're looking at least at a 6 year lifespan and then another year or two tacked on before it starts to fade. I do think the more interesting question is when it will gain momentum, and I would agree with fall. I don't think we'll see anything as abysmal as February, with slow buildup throughout the year, but too much more than 300k prior to October isn't likely (and frankly not particularly necessary either).



Shane said: PS3 has to gain momentum before we can worry about it losing it, which will happen eventually. You don't go from first to worst overnight. Unless you release a system with carts. We're looking at least at a 6 year lifespan and then another year or two tacked on before it starts to fade. I do think the more interesting question is when it will gain momentum, and I would agree with fall. I don't think we'll see anything as abysmal as February, with slow buildup throughout the year, but too much more than 300k prior to October isn't likely (and frankly not particularly necessary either).
The problem wasn't cartridges ... The problem was using a technology (that was in some ways superior) which did not line-up with the gaming style that consumers wanted. If the PS3 doesn't see a price cut expect to see it perform on a similar or worse level than February (in comparison to the Wii/XBox 360) for the rest of the year; certainly in Q4 the PS3 will sell a Million units in North America, but it is likely the XBox 360 will sell 2 Million and the Wii could sell 3 Million ...



PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone.



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HappySqurriel said:The problem wasn't cartridges ... The problem was using a technology (that was in some ways superior) which did not line-up with the gaming style that consumers wanted.
While I view technology as the potential achilles heel with Wii, with N64, every developer had jumped ship before the system was even launched. Nobody bothered to give them a chance. Worked out just fine for the two companies that did support them, but it was hard to push a system without games.



It has to build momentum first. I'll define this as "growing" monthly sales (per territory) of both software and hardware. It has failed to do this in the US, and also in Japan. We won't know about Europe for 1 or 2 months. Then.. once it builds sales, it has to "outsell" one of the other consoles. Easily doing this in Japan (360), but the difference (at the moment) is being made up in the US. So it comes down to Europe. Of course PS3 sales can pick up in the US (or 360 could pick up in Japan). Sony has one serious and obvious problem - public perception. Due to the early release, lots of software, and amazing performance (for its time) - the PS2 ruled all. This does NOT apply to the PS3, and I don't think will ever apply to the PS3 - the Wii has this generation by the balls. ... Again - its just like the PSP vrs DS - the PSP in its own right is doing ok - hardware, software, etc. The DS is killing it (and the gap widening) and the public KNOWS THIS. Sony's challenge is to ensure the SAME thing doesn't happen (or worse) with the PS3. They could get good/excellent sales - but if the Wii outsells it 2-1 for the entire generation (quite possible), the perception is that Sony will have "lost". (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).



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shams said: (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).
Expected killer apps is the point. Wii is following the same strategy as the DS does. The hardcore audience calls games that don't fit in their definition what a game has to be non-games. Compare Wii software to DS software: Nintendogs, Brain Age are called non-games yet they are outselling even Nintendo's established franchises like Mario. Wii sports and Wii play are called non-games yet they are outselling even Nintendo's established franchises like Zelda. I say that Wii sports would have outsold Twilight Princess on a worldwide base even if it weren't bundled with the hardware in america and europe. Gaming trends start in japan. Japan is on the DS train, so there was no need to bundle Wii sports with the hardware. America and europe are followers, therefore it was a wise decision of Nintendo to bundle Wii sports with the hardware to make sure everyone who buys a Wii gets this non-game. Not every hardcore gamer will necessarly play this game, but he will probably show this game to his friends/family. Nintendo doesn't need to tell non-gamers why their system is fun, those people just need to watch someone playing Wii to understand why it is.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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shams said: It has to build momentum first. I'll define this as "growing" monthly sales (per territory) of both software and hardware. It has failed to do this in the US, and also in Japan(BIG BOLD!). We won't know about Europe for 1 or 2 months. Then.. once it builds sales, it has to "outsell" one of the other consoles. Easily doing this in Japan (360), but the difference (at the moment) is being made up in the US. So it comes down to Europe. Of course PS3 sales can pick up in the US (or 360 could pick up in Japan). Sony has one serious and obvious problem - public perception. Due to the early release, lots of software, and amazing performance (for its time) - the PS2 ruled all. This does NOT apply to the PS3, and I don't think will ever apply to the PS3 - the Wii has this generation by the balls. ... Again - its just like the PSP vrs DS - the PSP in its own right is doing ok - hardware, software, etc. The DS is killing it (and the gap widening) and the public KNOWS THIS. Sony's challenge is to ensure the SAME thing doesn't happen (or worse) with the PS3. They could get good/excellent sales - but if the Wii outsells it 2-1 for the entire generation (quite possible), the perception is that Sony will have "lost". (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).
Bolded - things you got wrong.



Planning on getting a PS3 sometime in July-August.

staticneuron said: I assure this console war will not be won by multiplatform ports. Not to mention that most exclusives were defacto sony bacause of large amount of systems sold. So as most people here would know the PS2 had a large list of exclusives. Sony has a little bit of an upperhand because of their first and second party titles. Cellius might help out a bit as well. Ports are not going to be an issue. They never have and they never will be.
Sony's has the upperhand over Nintendo's 1st & 2nd parties? They're practically what kept both the N64 & GC alive & profitable when most 3rd parties had long bailed out. The Wii will in all likelihood receive the most exclusive titles due to its FHC design, & development costs. Given that it continues to sell as it is presently. MG & especially SSB:B are going to be massive.



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