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When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

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No, Rockstar won't completely ignore Wii. They're giving it Manhunt 2. Behind PS2 and PSP, the Wii version is the most important version of that game. This is the type of support we can expect, though. They're not dumbing down GTA. They're adding a little bit to a last generation game. Maybe they'll also release Double Pack. Then it'll really be a party. The Wii does its own thing of not having as many games. Hardly original. Sims on a console? If they can turn that into a success, which they've been unable to do despite trying for 4 years, I'll be very impressed. This is one of those PC games that needs to stay a PC game. Guess who always does fantastic in all three regions at launch? The key question is whether this thing's got legs. If Nintendo can keep up its current sales for another couple years, it may make sense to do GTA if there's a way (we've heard on more than one occasion how the system's just too underpowered, and the thing just launched). Of course, that's even assuming that 40% userbase = 40% relevant userbase. But let's be real here. If Nintendo's market share ends up much above 20% longer term, it'll be a surprise. Granted, even if they do see the numbers start to add up like you suggest, do you think they'll also see third party sales add up... or just Nintendo's? I have some serious reservations about Sonic's potential success, though Wii's likely where it has the most chance, but it's not like the others aren't getting Sonic. DQS I'm thinking Crystal Chronicles as well, but that will probably end up being the most successful game on that list. Beyond that, I'm yawning, or laughing, or both. Nintendo needs to secure some games that don't make people say "Who cares?" At some point they will, but I don't see why it would even still be the blockbusters. Spinoffs of blockbusters maybe. I'd suggest their Gamecube exclusives at this time were more impressive, with Resident Evil and Rogue Squadron, and even their own internal efforts were far ahead of the technical demos we're getting now.



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Erik Aston said: Lets see... GTA is a series with sales potential around 17 million (PS2+XBox sales of SA=nearly 17 million)... How is that game going to sell that much with current 360+PS3 sales? Does it make sense to spend 25 or 30% more "dumbing down" the game to reach 60% more customers with a Wii version? Even a delayed Wii version? FF13... Square are going to want that to sell 2.5 or 3 million in Japan. PS3 might not reach 2.5 million in Japan until next year sometime... Wii will reach it in a couple months, maybe sooner. They'll want another 4 or 5 million in the rest of the world, too. They might be looking at selling to 80% of the installed base in the West to pull those kinds of numbers. Again, does it make sense to spend 10-15% more for a 360 port, or 25-30% more for a Wii port, to expand your audience several times over? That's what third parties will be asking themselves. Now maybe they'll decide it isn't worth it... But then what about GTAIV 2, or FF14? Is Wii going to have 45 or 50% of the market at that point? Hmm.
GTAIV will sell most likely what GTAIII did. GTAIII released at a time the PS2 had around the same sales as what the 360/PS3 will have in November. GTAIII still sold around 4.5m units on the PS2 alone in NA - about 67% of what SA did. I think some are overestimating how well 3rd party games, expecially violent ones, will sell on the Wii. If the Wii really is getting the casual gamers, they aren't going to be interested in virtually maiming and killing prostitutes, nor the open ended gameplay associated with it. The reason Wii Sports is selling well is it's a casual game on a casual system. Wii Sports wouldn't sell good on a PS3 as Sony Sports. A great example is Viva Pinata: It's a fantastic game on a system that it really wasn't designed for. Thats why it's sold 250k. On a Wii, it'd of sold probably near 2m units by now. But on the other hand, Red Steel on the 360 wouldn't sell any better than it did on the Wii, and Gears of War would not be anywhere near the 4m units it's at on the Wii. Developers are going to consider what's going to sell best on the platform, what audience they have, and what games to actually produce for the audiences before they plunge into it. This is both a blessing and curse for the Wii. I still believe the Wii will get pidgeonholed on the 3rd party existing AAA franchise titles. Other than CoD3, no real major AAA titles have been announced as being exclusive or a major new port that the GC didn't have.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

I'll say it again, lightsabre Wii or whatever Lucas names it has the potential to be a mega blockbuster. I know a ton of people who would get the Wii for such a title if done right. People have been waiting decades for such a game.



mrstickball said: GTAIV will sell most likely what GTAIII did. GTAIII released at a time the PS2 had around the same sales as what the 360/PS3 will have in November. GTAIII still sold around 4.5m units on the PS2 alone in NA - about 67% of what SA did. I think some are overestimating how well 3rd party games, expecially violent ones, will sell on the Wii. If the Wii really is getting the casual gamers, they aren't going to be interested in virtually maiming and killing prostitutes, nor the open ended gameplay associated with it. The reason Wii Sports is selling well is it's a casual game on a casual system. Wii Sports wouldn't sell good on a PS3 as Sony Sports. A great example is Viva Pinata: It's a fantastic game on a system that it really wasn't designed for. Thats why it's sold 250k. On a Wii, it'd of sold probably near 2m units by now. But on the other hand, Red Steel on the 360 wouldn't sell any better than it did on the Wii, and Gears of War would not be anywhere near the 4m units it's at on the Wii. Developers are going to consider what's going to sell best on the platform, what audience they have, and what games to actually produce for the audiences before they plunge into it. This is both a blessing and curse for the Wii. I still believe the Wii will get pidgeonholed on the 3rd party existing AAA franchise titles. Other than CoD3, no real major AAA titles have been announced as being exclusive or a major new port that the GC didn't have.
You're making a pretty big leap when you go from "the Wii appeals to casual gamers" to "The Wii only sells to casual gamers". I see plenty in the Wii that appeals to hardcore gamers, including, but not limited to, the Wii experience. I'm fairly confident that the Wii will see plenty of support for adult or violent games. It's already landed franchises the Cube didn't, with Scarface, Godfather and Manhunt. And when you factor in the tremendous support the console will get from Japanese developers (I mean come one, how can it not!?), things will be looking pretty good for the Wii regardless of what kind of game your interested in.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

Shane said: The Wii does its own thing of not having as many games. Hardly original.
So what happened to the fact that this year more Wii games have been announced than 360 and PS3 combined?
Sims on a console? If they can turn that into a success, which they've been unable to do despite trying for 4 years, I'll be very impressed. This is one of those PC games that needs to stay a PC game.
This was designed from the ground up for the Wii, and isn't stuck with a gamepad, the wiimote makes all the difference in this game, go look at the videos. :)
Guess who always does fantastic in all three regions at launch? The key question is whether this thing's got legs.
Yep, that is the question for the wii. Care to guess at what questions the PS3 and 360 have? ;)
If Nintendo can keep up its current sales for another couple years, it may make sense to do GTA if there's a way (we've heard on more than one occasion how the system's just too underpowered, and the thing just launched).
Suddenly games that could be played on older consoles can't be played on new ones? Blimey! ;)
Of course, that's even assuming that 40% userbase = 40% relevant userbase. But let's be real here. If Nintendo's market share ends up much above 20% longer term, it'll be a surprise. Granted, even if they do see the numbers start to add up like you suggest, do you think they'll also see third party sales add up... or just Nintendo's?
99.999999998% of the current gaming population is pretty much in disbelief as it is to the current sales situation of the Wii. If I remember my numbers correctly, I believe this year alone worldwide the Wii has over 50% of the "new console" market share. :)
Sonic will be multiplatform, but I have some serious reservations about its potential success, though Wii's likely where it has the most chance. DQS I'm thinking Crystal Chronicles as well, but that will probably end up being the most successful game on that list. Beyond that, I'm yawning, or laughing, or both. Nintendo needs to secure some games that don't make people say "Who cares?"
2/3 of the population who bought the PS2 cares.
At some point they will, but I don't see why it would even still be the blockbusters. Spinoffs of blockbusters maybe. I'd suggest their Gamecube exclusives at this time were more impressive, with Resident Evil and Rogue Squadron, and even their own internal efforts were far ahead of the technical demos we're getting now.
Bigger companies can more easily afford to put big titles with big budgets on the big consoles, but that doesn't describe the whole industry now, does it? Here's my summary. Once it passes the 360 worldwide (which I feel is very certain at this point, however probably not totally until after the halo/gta bump) I think the Wii will have the highest install base for many years, if not until the next generation of consoles. The reason is I think will be the only console of the non-gamer, the main console of the casual, and the 2nd console of the hardcore. Far more hardcore gamers will be willing to buy a PS3/Wii or a 360/Wii than they will a PS3/360, those two are going to be sharing far too many games this generation.



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

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...I hear this all that time: that apparently the Wii isn't capable of normal "AAA" style games because it's not as graphically powerful as the 360/PS3? ...As if those type of games didn't exist last year when those systems weren't around! (not to mention the Wii is more powerful than last gen, if only marginally so). All the same-old game types are still possible on the Wii, and they don't seem to have trouble selling either (see: Zelda, Red Steel, COD3, MUA, etc.) To take one example, COD3 was probably put on the Wii as a lark: a quick port to cash in on the launch. But considering how well it's sold, and also projecting forward where the Wii install base will be vs. the 360 and PS3 by the time the next (real) COD game is out, the Will will almost certainly be their *largest* platform by then. They're going to have to put out more than a quick port if the Wii becomes that important. Another possible example: Capcom has Resident Evil games in the works for the Wii and PS3/360. The Wii version was intended as just a spin off, and probably more a cash-in than anything... but again given where install-bases will be by the time these games are due (late this year / early next) where would you put most of your development effort going forward?



That's what I meant by relevant audience. I'd imagine the casual gaming audience is extremely minimal, particularly at this point, but who is buying the system is primarily hardcore gamers but more importantly hardcore Nintendo gamers. They want their favorite characters but don't go for all the bloodshed. There is a mature market on Nintendo systems, but it's not the predominant group as it is on Xbox and PlayStation. Even without the mature themes, third parties will have difficulty selling their games as well as they will on other platforms, and most are aware of this. So this makes it a difficult balancing act as to how you best utilize the Wii's userbase without overextending yourself.



Shane said: That's what I meant by relevant audience. I'd imagine the casual gaming audience is extremely minimal, particularly at this point, but who is buying the system is primarily hardcore gamers but more importantly hardcore Nintendo gamers. They want their favorite characters but don't go for all the bloodshed. There is a mature market on Nintendo systems, but it's not the predominant group as it is on Xbox and PlayStation. Even without the mature themes, third parties will have difficulty selling their games as well as they will on other platforms, and most are aware of this. So this makes it a difficult balancing act as to how you best utilize the Wii's userbase without overextending yourself.
I think you are underestimating the number of casual gamers buying a Wii. Espcecially in Japan were Wii play and Wii Sport is the system seller. More I think that you are underestimating Nintendo fans. There is at least some N-fans that I know that thinks Godfather sounds really fun because of the motion thing. Of course if that means any sales I don't know, especially when it isn't advertised... So far Wii is in a try out period, 3rd party sales in Japan is really poor, USA seems to be in better shape so far (really waiting for the March numbers here) with a 1.588 attach ratio and some of those games are mature titles. Now of course we all have to wait and see, I hope we will see good sell numbers on, No more heroes, manhunt 2 and Godfather. If that happens we might find that Wii will get a spinoff on GTA or anyother big series. For Japan the big 3rd party test will be DQS.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

As a rule, casual gamers aren't also early adopters. They're not gonna hunt for the system or pay top dollar. You can occasionally get Nintendo gamers to deviate from the status quo of buying Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, etc., but the only example I can think of during the current millenium is Sonic, which isn't that far a stretch from those. The last platinum third party game on a Nintendo console was Derby Stallion 96 on the Super Nintendo. FFCC, which I'd put in the same boat as DQS, moved 350k units, a modest success, but not spectacular. If DQS does sell well, though, it may pave the way for not a general increase in support but perhaps more spinoffs and/or major franchises.



Shane said: As a rule, casual gamers aren't also early adopters. They're not gonna hunt for the system or pay top dollar.
I guess Nintendo is either breaking the rules or rewriting them, then, because they're doing 2 of those 3 pretty regularly, or haven't you been checking the news? ;) This is why the Wii is still sold out, Wii Sports + Wii Remote + $249 price tag. Not just Nintendo fans are buying it, Zelda's sales have dropped off to below half of Wii's sales during January. From this perspective, you could almost say the Wii's release was designed less for the hardcore and more for everybody else, if it were just the hardcore Nintendo fans or even just hardcore gamers, sales would have slowed down some time ago. And the way things are it don't look like Wii's will be *readily* available in any region until June.



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