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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official August 2009 NPD Thread (Data @ 6:30 for 4 weeks ending 8/29)

Anita Fraizer:

There is a lot of speculation about Wii and whether Nintendo will take a price cut as sales comps to last year show declines. I do think it’s interesting to note that the Wii is still selling at levels comparable to what the PS2 was doing at about this point in its lifecycle.

and still at launch price



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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IGN has some additional bits of software, like Wolfenstein selling 17k (PC version?) and G.I. Joe's bestselling version below 35k.

Madden Wii sold only 67k, below the PSP version which sold about 80k. No wonder EA's CEO was panicking.



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

Wow, it was overtracked by 80k? I wonder how much was MPTrilogy overtracked by.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

EA doesn't know how to market Madden Wii. I think they should target fathers of young children. Don't make it all goofy, just a fun way to play football with the family before the game on Sunday.



Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.

psrock said:
sharky974 said:
leo-j said:
oh my goodness, the NPD threads on other forums are troll hazard #1, they are saying that the slim had no affect, and the 360 still outsold the ps3 despite the PS3 slim and $299 price

Which is true.

 

I dont necessarily expect Slim to outsell 360 in September either..well maybe on VGchartz lol. ODST will move hardware and the Elite price cut didnt happen until the 29th. It will be close, my gut says PS3 will win September but I hope not.

I hope your PS3 breaks again.


LOL



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Like myself, and many others said in one of the other threads last week. The Slim was already out on most big stores in the US. They weren't limited. Not a shocker at all.



I don't think we're getting a Wii price cut anytime soon. Wii went up more than 360 from July, which costs less and had more compelling software released (Batman, better Madden sales).

In month 23-34 (Sept 08 to Aug 09, inclusive) Wii sales by NPD were 9.23m at $250, PS2 sales by NPD in months 23-34 (Aug 2002 to July 2003, inclusive) were 8.10m at $200 - the first PS2 price drop was from $300 to $200 in Spring 2002.

PS2 peaked at 8.66m in month 20-31, and then declined to 7.50m in the year running from month 26-37. The best 12 month Wii sequence so far has been month 17-28 (March 2008 to Feb 2009) at 10.90m, and in the six months since, the drop has been 1.7m. You can believe what you want, but the drop isn't that precipitous given that Wii had a) more room to fall, and b) has a higher price point than PS2 did in an aligned launch comparison. The Wii drops in sequential years (month 17-28, then month 18-29, then month 19-30, etc) is already begginning to slow alot, I suspect it will rest at 8.5m to 9m for a while heading into Black Friday and Christmas, unless Nintendo cuts price.

Not entirely convinced we're going to see PS3 beat 360 or Wii in September. I think all three systems will be close, but the current order will remain intact. Given that all systems besides PS3/PS2 increased about 5-10% from July PS3 would probably have done like 140k for the month. The price cut impact was mainly for the last week of August, so the system probably did something like...30k-33k-33k-114k by NPD figures. For September, you'd expect maybe 70k-55k-50k-50k-50k for PS3 coming off that big weekly jump. Wii at probably 70k-80k x5, and 360 at 50k x 3, + 100k + 75k from Halo 3 ODST. So, I'd go something like 325k for X360, 275k for PS3, 375k for Wii. DS will be 700k, PSP probably 175k, PS2 maybe 125k.

I've been checking PS3 stock allocations locally since the Slim launched, and it essentially sold out in some places week one, but its been well stocked since then. So sales are up, but its going to be more of a spike than a bump.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

I don't think we're getting a Wii price cut anytime soon. Wii went up more than 360 from July, which costs less and had more compelling software released (Batman, better Madden sales).

In month 23-34 (Sept 08 to Aug 09, inclusive) Wii sales by NPD were 9.23m at $250, PS2 sales by NPD in months 23-34 (Aug 2002 to July 2003, inclusive) were 8.10m at $200 - the first PS2 price drop was from $300 to $200 in Spring 2002.

PS2 peaked at 8.66m in month 20-31, and then declined to 7.50m in the year running from month 26-37. The best 12 month Wii sequence so far has been month 17-28 (March 2008 to Feb 2009) at 10.90m, and in the six months since, the drop has been 1.7m. You can believe what you want, but the drop isn't that precipitous given that Wii had a) more room to fall, and b) has a higher price point than PS2 did in an aligned launch comparison. The Wii drops in sequential years (month 17-28, then month 18-29, then month 19-30, etc) is already begginning to slow alot, I suspect it will rest at 8.5m to 9m for a while heading into Black Friday and Christmas, unless Nintendo cuts price.

Not entirely convinced we're going to see PS3 beat 360 or Wii in September. I think all three systems will be close, but the current order will remain intact. Given that all systems besides PS3/PS2 increased about 5-10% from July PS3 would probably have done like 140k for the month. The price cut impact was mainly for the last week of August, so the system probably did something like...30k-33k-33k-114k by NPD figures. For September, you'd expect maybe 70k-55k-50k-50k-50k for PS3 coming off that big weekly jump. Wii at probably 70k-80k x5, and 360 at 50k x 3, + 100k + 75k from Halo 3 ODST. So, I'd go something like 325k for X360, 275k for PS3, 375k for Wii. DS will be 700k, PSP probably 175k, PS2 maybe 125k.

I've been checking PS3 stock allocations locally since the Slim launched, and it essentially sold out in some places week one, but its been well stocked since then. So sales are up, but its going to be more of a spike than a bump.

Do you happen to have previous September NPD results compared to August? I wasn't aware that September is usually a larger month than August (or is it a 5 week vs. 4 week thing?).

Anyway good analysis, it will be interesting to see what happens.



@The Source: Did you check VGChartz numbers before making that prediction for September?

Wii has sold 70k this week, 360 87k and PS3 144k. Unless the site is making up numbers, I don't follow your logic. Still find it hard to believe that you expect that Wii will rise in sales and be ahead of the PS3, while PS3 will plummet to the floor and end up last.

@The topic: No single format top 10 yet? What about PR spins?



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

TheSource said:

I don't think we're getting a Wii price cut anytime soon. Wii went up more than 360 from July, which costs less and had more compelling software released (Batman, better Madden sales).

In month 23-34 (Sept 08 to Aug 09, inclusive) Wii sales by NPD were 9.23m at $250, PS2 sales by NPD in months 23-34 (Aug 2002 to July 2003, inclusive) were 8.10m at $200 - the first PS2 price drop was from $300 to $200 in Spring 2002.

PS2 peaked at 8.66m in month 20-31, and then declined to 7.50m in the year running from month 26-37. The best 12 month Wii sequence so far has been month 17-28 (March 2008 to Feb 2009) at 10.90m, and in the six months since, the drop has been 1.7m. You can believe what you want, but the drop isn't that precipitous given that Wii had a) more room to fall, and b) has a higher price point than PS2 did in an aligned launch comparison. The Wii drops in sequential years (month 17-28, then month 18-29, then month 19-30, etc) is already begginning to slow alot, I suspect it will rest at 8.5m to 9m for a while heading into Black Friday and Christmas, unless Nintendo cuts price.

Not entirely convinced we're going to see PS3 beat 360 or Wii in September. I think all three systems will be close, but the current order will remain intact. Given that all systems besides PS3/PS2 increased about 5-10% from July PS3 would probably have done like 140k for the month. The price cut impact was mainly for the last week of August, so the system probably did something like...30k-33k-33k-114k by NPD figures. For September, you'd expect maybe 70k-55k-50k-50k-50k for PS3 coming off that big weekly jump. Wii at probably 70k-80k x5, and 360 at 50k x 3, + 100k + 75k from Halo 3 ODST. So, I'd go something like 325k for X360, 275k for PS3, 375k for Wii. DS will be 700k, PSP probably 175k, PS2 maybe 125k.

I've been checking PS3 stock allocations locally since the Slim launched, and it essentially sold out in some places week one, but its been well stocked since then. So sales are up, but its going to be more of a spike than a bump.

I never thought i would do this, ever.

 

* Facepalm*

I feel like crying. Read your own site.



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