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MikeB's past predictions

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MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

I view the release of Final Fantasy XIII (and release of the slim) as a PS3 turning point for the Japanese market, the PS3 has performed very well in Japan since that game's release. Massive YOY gains.

The PS3 according to trackers has been outselling the Wii for many weeks in a row now.

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.

The game itself sold about 1.5m units first week in Japan. Down to 188k units second week. 114k units third week. 40k units fourth week. 17k fifth week. 7k units sixth week and continuing down to residual sales. Not expected for a heavily front loaded game.

Even if you wanted to make the outlandish claim that EVERY one of the hardware units sold during those weeks was due to a FFXIII buyer, the numbers STILL drop off to well below the overall number of consoles being sold on a weekly basis, which is about 25k, in Japan. So after 4 weeks, the number of FFXIII software units dropped below the number of PS3 hardware units being sold and yet you still claim this game has had some sort of significant, PERMANENT positive effect on PS3 sales in Japan?

Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?

I have to call this one like I see it. A faulty conclusion.



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MikeB said:
@ starcraft

You have proven nothing and if you still think Sony over the last decade was ever near on the verge of bankrupting I don't care, but IMO keep it to yourself, IMO you make yourself look foolish for anyone who knows Sony's financials.

Either you're experiencing SEVERE reading comprehension issues, or (more likely) you've recognized that you possess the losing side of this argument and so are trying at all costs to avoid engagement.

In complete contrast to your earlier assertion that you have no problem admitting you're wrong.

 

To clarify, I have not, ANYWHERE suggested that Sony has ever been on the verge of bankruptcy in the last decade.  I have shown why your claim Sony could outlay upwards of $30 billion dollars on the spot without going into receivership is absolute rubbish however, no doubt the reason for your abrasiveness and attempts to divert attention.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

greenmedic88 said:
MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

I view the release of Final Fantasy XIII (and release of the slim) as a PS3 turning point for the Japanese market, the PS3 has performed very well in Japan since that game's release. Massive YOY gains.

The PS3 according to trackers has been outselling the Wii for many weeks in a row now.

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.

The game itself sold about 1.5m units first week in Japan. Down to 188k units second week. 114k units third week. 40k units fourth week. 17k fifth week. 7k units sixth week and continuing down to residual sales. Not expected for a heavily front loaded game.

Even if you wanted to make the outlandish claim that EVERY one of the hardware units sold during those weeks was due to a FFXIII buyer, the numbers STILL drop off to well below the overall number of consoles being sold on a weekly basis, which is about 25k, in Japan. So after 4 weeks, the number of FFXIII software units dropped below the number of PS3 hardware units being sold and yet you still claim this game has had some sort of significant, PERMANENT positive effect on PS3 sales in Japan?

Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?

I have to call this one like I see it. A faulty conclusion.

He has drawn a number of those in this thread.

If he quoted and responded to entire posts rather than selecting those small parts he believes he can successfully misconstrue and then refute, we'd have a much more meaningful discussion.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

I really do like any thread with MikeB in them but this has to be my favourite.



@ greenmedic88

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.


I know I look at topics from many different angles, more so than most, so I will try to make the logic as simple as possible.

Why is Final Fantasy so important for Japan, beyond just sales to Final Fantasy fans? (Note that I'm not a Final Fantasy fan at all nor a Gran Turismo fan, despite this I mark them as critical titles)

Final Fantasy is a major popular franchise, its launch was massive in Japan. Mass press coverage puts the PS3 in the spotlight. This is very good for sales of the console beyond just selling consoles to Final Fantasy fans. Can you understand this logic?



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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greenmedic88 said:
MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

I view the release of Final Fantasy XIII (and release of the slim) as a PS3 turning point for the Japanese market, the PS3 has performed very well in Japan since that game's release. Massive YOY gains.

The PS3 according to trackers has been outselling the Wii for many weeks in a row now.

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.

The game itself sold about 1.5m units first week in Japan. Down to 188k units second week. 114k units third week. 40k units fourth week. 17k fifth week. 7k units sixth week and continuing down to residual sales. Not expected for a heavily front loaded game.

Even if you wanted to make the outlandish claim that EVERY one of the hardware units sold during those weeks was due to a FFXIII buyer, the numbers STILL drop off to well below the overall number of consoles being sold on a weekly basis, which is about 25k, in Japan. So after 4 weeks, the number of FFXIII software units dropped below the number of PS3 hardware units being sold and yet you still claim this game has had some sort of significant, PERMANENT positive effect on PS3 sales in Japan?

Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?

I have to call this one like I see it. A faulty conclusion.

er.. what? I read his posts, hes not saying what you're saying at all.

 

FF13 is most definitely one of the primary factors for the PS3 performing better now than it used to, why would anyone think otherwise? 

 

I dont see anywhere that he said its causing a 1 to 1 sales increase? also, ff13 sold excellent in Japan. I think it out did pretty much everyones expectations by a lot. 



@ BW_JP

Thanks. Yes, more than 1 million Japanese bought Final Fantasy XIII on launch day. That's a very major eye catcher that didn't pass unnoticed in Japan (massive lines at stores, media coverage, commercials, etc).

I expect Gran Turismo 5 to have an impact beyond just attracting Gran Turismo or racing fans as well. For example it's also an ideal oppertunity to highlight the power of the PS3, the game is shaping up to deliver an extremely realistic experience.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.


I know I look at topics from many different angles, more so than most, so I will try to make the logic as simple as possible.

Why is Final Fantasy so important for Japan, beyond just sales to Final Fantasy fans? (Note that I'm not a Final Fantasy fan at all nor a Gran Turismo fan, despite this I mark them as critical titles)

Final Fantasy is a major popular franchise, its launch was massive in Japan. Mass press coverage puts the PS3 in the spotlight. This is very good for sales of the console beyond just selling consoles to Final Fantasy fans. Can you understand this logic?

To repeat myself verbatim: Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?



greenmedic88 said:
MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.


I know I look at topics from many different angles, more so than most, so I will try to make the logic as simple as possible.

Why is Final Fantasy so important for Japan, beyond just sales to Final Fantasy fans? (Note that I'm not a Final Fantasy fan at all nor a Gran Turismo fan, despite this I mark them as critical titles)

Final Fantasy is a major popular franchise, its launch was massive in Japan. Mass press coverage puts the PS3 in the spotlight. This is very good for sales of the console beyond just selling consoles to Final Fantasy fans. Can you understand this logic?

To repeat myself verbatim: Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?

Yes, IMO the game's release still has a positive impact on Japanese PS3 sales.

Let me provide another example of a game/project which hasn't even been released. Milo and Natal for the XBox 360, I stated Milo is already a success for Microsoft.

Milo, despite what was shown was fake, caused extreme massive positive media coverage for Microsoft's XBox 360 (unbelievable really). Also fanboys around the world hyped it up as much as they could (free advertising for Microsoft). Of course I think Milo will underdeliver compared to what was promised (so it could have a negative backslash to a much lesser degree as well once released, but overall a big victory for Microsoft which tried hard to undermine Sony's much more real showings, which were set to be the highlight of the event).



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

I dont know why ppl were expecting so much high from FFXIII, when FFXIII just performed like the previous iteration.. except for FFVII which had good legs.. other than that all FF games had huge first week and large drops.