Alright I collected the data that was released last week about Monster Hunter 3's sales data. A lot of people are calling the game a flop even though is already in the top 10 best selling titles of 09 for Japan, but that doesn't matter much. I just want to show off what I came up with.
The first thing I noticed was that I have 3 unknowns.
x = stand alone
y= CC bundle
z= Wii bundle
Then I came up with my first equation
x+y+z= 1 million
This is from the data released prior to Famitsu's numbers that Capcom shipped 1 million copies
Then I came up with my second equation
.4x+.7y+.8z=.545 * 1 million
This is from the article that was released saying that the standalone only sold 40% of its shipment while CC bundle did 70% and the wii bundle did 80%. Then finally there was the statement that the game had 54.5% sale through.
x+y+z= 1 million
are my two equations. Unfortunately I can't solve that because I have 3 unknowns but only 2 equations. So I decided to estimate. I figure since this is an estimation/prediction site that it would be alright. I decided to combine the bundles together. Which would get me down to two equation and two unknowns.
Using algebra I simply solved.
I got 585715 standalone copies and 414285 bundle copies. In the first week 310,715 bundles were sold whereas only 234,286 standalones were sold (excuse my rounding errors). That is a 76,429 copy difference or a 25% difference between the two. It is clear to see that Capcom overestimated the value of the stand alone immensly.
So we also see that There are 351,429 standalone copies leftover. Wow that is a huge overstock. Retailers made a huge misread. This easily explains why prices are being slashed. On the other hand there are only 103,570 bundles leftover after the first week. That is certainly a more maneagable number.
It would seem to me that the majority of sales this week came from the stand alone considering the number of leftover and this weeks sales. It is hard for me to believe that all of the bundles are sold up. Then on the other hand retailers wouldn't be taking such drastic action if the standalone sold 100,000 in its second week when it did a front loaded 200,000 its first week.
Hopefully with the holiday and pricecut, retailers will be able to move the remaining copies of the 1 million and get a new shipment in. One that is more realistic and more favored towards bundles instead of standalone.