The media doesn't call it like it is because these would be less interesting that way. They feel they have to spice things up a bit or add some controversy to it. People in my country love controversy and that's why things are so popular.
TO GOD BE THE GLORY
The media does call it like they see it through their rose colored Obama glasses.
Repent or be destroyed
| NJ5 said: A clear explanation of the problems with the "unemployment rate": http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODUyZGMyNTExYzNlNTUyNzA1ZmIwMzc3MmMxNzEzYWM= Conclusion: The unemployment rate declined from month to month, even though the total number of Americans employed with a job decreased. If you don't find that a signal that the happy headlines are misleading, I don't know what else to tell you. |
Technically those two things measure different things at slightly different times. Think of it as two different indicators that provide information that the other doesn't but miss information that the other one does. Both are important. Its not abnormal for one to rise and the other to go down. Yes, the job loss numbers are more reliable, but that doesn't mean that they provide the full picture.
http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/08/unemployment_rate_down_but_unemployment_up.php
All that jobs information comes from the BLS's establishment survey of about 150,000 businesses, nonprofits, government agencies, etc. The unemployment rate comes from a Census Bureau survey of 60,000 households. Because of the smaller sample size and other factors, the household survey is generally seen as a less reliable indicator of month-to-month changes in the job market. But because the establishment survey can miss new businesses, the household survey sometimes provides signs of an employment turning point before the establishment survey does. Unreliable signs, but nonetheless, here they are: Employment was up 113,000 in July (sorry, got my numbers mixed up) down just 155,000, seasonally adjusted, according to the household survey. And in case you don't trust those seasonal adjustments, it was up 229,000 unadjusted. So hooray for that.
And if you account for discouraged workers/people who want full time work but only get part time, number of hours people are working, and average pay, which many people claim are more reliable indicators, the numbers did improve.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. That's down from 16.5 percent in June, which was the highest on records dating to 1994.
With companies feeling a bit better about the economy's prospects and their own, they boosted workers' hours in July. The average work week rose to 33.1 hours, after having fallen to 33 hours in June, the lowest on records dating to 1964.
Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July, up from $18.53 in June. Hourly earnings were stagnant in June. Average weekly earnings, which fell in June, rose to $614.34. Those gains raised hopes that consumers — whose spending accounts for the single-largest slice of economic activity — will feel more confident and more inclined to spend in the months ahead, thus helping the recovery.
Not to mention the job loss numbers for previous months were overestimated, which also factors in to the unemployment numbers. But I guess you guys probably didn't even know about that:
Also heartening: job losses in May and June turned out to be less than previously reported. Employers sliced 303,000 positions in May, versus 322,000 previously logged. And, they cut 443,000 in June, compared with an earlier estimate of 467,000.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
akuma587 the fact that U6 unemployment improved when the number of working Americans decreased is also cause for doubt... in this case the source of the discrepancy is the seasonal adjustment, the non-adjusted figures seem to be flat with the previous month.
I'm not saying they're changing the statistics as they go along, just that there are reasons to be skeptical about these rates which can improve when less people are working.
We also have to remember that right now there's too much inventory at many retailers and distributors, which is why manufacturers are suffering so much. When that inventory is consumed, there will be a certain boost in work hours and perhaps employment, but that's just the normal rebound. It doesn't mean the situation will keep improving, since the increasing number of insolvent companies and individuals will continue to keep consumption low for a long time.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
Actually inventories are decreasing because retailers, etc. have been holding off on ordering new goods. That will actually be a good thing in the near to mid-term since many of them probably underestimated demand and will have to order more goods as a result.
You guys are way too doom and gloomy. You act like there is nothing positive whatsoever in the numbers and that there is a vast conspiracy going on.
Furthermore, if the job losses numbers are anything like the last two months, they are actually too high and will be adjusted downwards.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
Akuma,
I don't know if there is a conspiracy but I do know that the media seems to be spinning any news that they can, and ignoring any news they can't spin, to make the economy look like it is in better shape than it is. As an example of what I mean, last week the Deutsche Bank forecast that nearly 50% of mortages would be underwater by the first quarter of 2011 (about double what it was at the end of the first quarter 2009). Now (on its own) this is not a reason to panic, but with how much of the growth in spending over the past decade has been driven by home-equity based purchases its difficult to imagine consumer spending will return to pre-recession levels for several years; and when you combine this with the massive inventory of homes, the inability for many of these people to refinance or sell their homes means that the foreclosure rate will not return to normal for several years.
If the Deutsche Bank is correct (and they may or may not be) then the claims that we will see a recovery in 2010 are unrealistic, and yet few major news outlets carried this story; and those that did it was a small blurb with no analysis of what the numbers actually meant. When you compare the treatment of "negative" news about the economy compared to the "positive" news it becomes clear that the media is not providing balanced coverage.
Well frankly I've never heard a major media outlet ever even talk about Deutsche Bank, good or bad.
We also haven't even mentioned that the stock market has been on a 15% rally in the last month. I don't see how you can spin that as a bad thing.
Not to mention unemployment numbers are typically the last thing to come around in terms of recovery. Stocks and GDP have historically bounced back quicker. It is entirely normal that GDP growth can be positive while unemployment can rise (see the U.S. economy in the early 80's). The mere fact that the labor market is stabilizing is GREAT news from a short and long-run perspective.
I don't doubt that there is still some bad blood to be beaten out of the economy. But does even a prosperously growing economy never have any problems? I've yet to see one that does. That's just not how economies work.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
| akuma587 said: Well frankly I've never heard a major media outlet ever even talk about Deutsche Bank, good or bad. |
The value of the stock market is not representitive of the state of the economy good or bad, and movement within the markets in the short to medium term are much more related to emotional speculation than the fundimentals of the economy.
The spin that "Unemployment is the last thing to improve" so any signs of stabilization of unemployment are automatically a sign that things are getting better is 100% bullshit. When you're facing a longer term and deeper economic slowdown there are always plateaus and local mamimums in most economic indicators before something changes (for the worse) and then the indicators all become negative for awhile again. The reason for this is simple, and is (basically) the same reason why people claim unemployment is the last thing to improve ... no one knows what the economy will look like a year from now, and most companies and individuals are likely going to maintain their spending level at their new adjusted level until they see a sign that the recession is truely behind them unless they need to change it. Companies tend to only increase their workforce after they have seen dramatic improvement in their bottom line.
Generally speaking, the massive consumer orgy that drive the American economy is not going to recover until people have access to the extremely moronic levels of credit that were available prior to the beginning of the recession and consumer confidence returns. Right now consumer confidence does not show signs of returning to its previous high levels, and as long as more and more mortgages are underwater it is unlikely that consumers will have access to the credit levels they used to.
In other words ...
The recession is not over, we could easily be in the eye of the storm and after people evaluate the back-to-school shopping season and adjust expectations for the holiday shopping season we could see reduced orders from companies, higher unemployment, and lower profits for companies.
| TheRealMafoo said: God I hate the media. |
I don't read CNN because it's a load of shit. I get my news from the BBC. And ditto.
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