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UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

Forums - Sony Discussion - UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

osamanobama said:

i believe i have, what you would call, "owned" him 

Your figures back me up though.

God of War 3 predictions (3.7m when we started so any 4m guess would have been over at the time)

leatherhat said:

GoW will pass 4 but I don't think it has the general appeal to reach uncharted levels

Chibi.V.29 said:

gow3 i think will hit about 4.2 million

9087 said:

 U2 is going to hit 4million very easily, and it looks like GoW3 will too.

Aion said:
GoW 3 -  4 million
irtz said:

Uncharted and GOW3 about 4.2 million

sabby_e17 said:
God of War 3: 4 million
KeyStyle said:
GOW3=4 million
Scoobes said:
I think your Uncharted 2 and GoW3 predictions are pretty accurate. I'd say about 4million for each.
Jay520 said:
Dgc1808 said:
Would be amazing if GoW3 could hit 5 Million.


I think it's quite possible to happen sometime in the FAR future. Possibly after the PS4 releases.
calibrate` said:

God of War 3: 6 - 7 million (with probably greatest hits & all the bundles with GoW1 & 2

A203D said:

God of War 3: 5 mil

PlaystaionGamer said:

God of War 3: 4.7

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

GOD3 5m

CGI-Quality said:

God of War III - 4.7/4.8 - 5 million

Boutros said:

God of War 3, 4.5 million.

postofficebuddy said:

Yeah it's amazing how both GOW3 and U2 I'd say both have a pretty fair shot at 5 million.

Gilgamesh said:

God of War III: 5 million

NSS7 said:

GOW3 will do 5 million easily

TrevDaRev said:

God Of WAR III - 4.5million **updated to 5 million**

iWarMachine said:

God Of War 3 has a shot for 5M too.

M.U.G.E.N said:

Exactly and I think GOW3 will reach 5mil personally.

jester2358 said:

edit: i think gow3 will pass 4.5 after looking at fable 2 sales

Dahum said:

God Of War III: 6  million

bumblejr2 said:
GoWIII: 4Million

I have 23, you have 26. So there must be 3 duplicates in there..

I count 18 for underestimates, assuming there are also 3 duplicates that's 23/15 split.

A little different from my original figures, I can only guess that the wires got crossed in totalling up and the differences were added to the wrong totals.

5 were within the realms of being correct.

So with the new totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 23 / 15 *corrected

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected

Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

76/ 47

Final Result: 29 overestimated surplus

Thus with your figures and mine we  confirming "there were more underestimators then overestimaters" a lie. In fact it would take GoW hitting 5 million, UC2 hitting 6 million and GT5 hitting 9 million to break even on it. Just confirms theres way more crow to eat for the other guys.

 



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lol this just sad now



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osamanobama said:

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions.

You are wrong. I posted this earlier

mendozahotness said:

calibrate` said:

Gran Turismo 5: 10 - 12 million - Average 11 M

leatherhat said:

GT5 can do 10 million **REVISED TO 11 Million later**

TrevDaRev said:

I don't think it'll reach that number, but I do think it has a good shot at 11 million.  **(REVISED UPWARDS FROM 9.5M)**

bumblejr2 said:
GT5: 20Million!!! -11million :)
Vetteman94 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 11 M
Scoobes said:
GT5 I think lifetime could reach 10 million **REVISED DOWN FROM "GT3/GT4 NUMBERS"** - Average of over 11M
susymar said:
GT5: 13 million (I'm serious)

makingmusic476 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 9-11 million

The last one being the one I said depends on how you look at it.



mendozahotness said:
osamanobama said:

i believe i have, what you would call, "owned" him 

Your figures back me up though.

God of War 3 predictions (3.7m when we started so any 4m guess would have been over at the time)

leatherhat said:

GoW will pass 4 but I don't think it has the general appeal to reach uncharted levels

Chibi.V.29 said:

gow3 i think will hit about 4.2 million

9087 said:

 U2 is going to hit 4million very easily, and it looks like GoW3 will too.

Aion said:
GoW 3 -  4 million
irtz said:

Uncharted and GOW3 about 4.2 million

sabby_e17 said:
God of War 3: 4 million
KeyStyle said:
GOW3=4 million
Scoobes said:
I think your Uncharted 2 and GoW3 predictions are pretty accurate. I'd say about 4million for each.
Jay520 said:
Dgc1808 said:
Would be amazing if GoW3 could hit 5 Million.


I think it's quite possible to happen sometime in the FAR future. Possibly after the PS4 releases.
calibrate` said:

God of War 3: 6 - 7 million (with probably greatest hits & all the bundles with GoW1 & 2

A203D said:

God of War 3: 5 mil

PlaystaionGamer said:

God of War 3: 4.7

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

GOD3 5m

CGI-Quality said:

God of War III - 4.7/4.8 - 5 million

Boutros said:

God of War 3, 4.5 million.

postofficebuddy said:

Yeah it's amazing how both GOW3 and U2 I'd say both have a pretty fair shot at 5 million.

Gilgamesh said:

God of War III: 5 million

NSS7 said:

GOW3 will do 5 million easily

TrevDaRev said:

God Of WAR III - 4.5million **updated to 5 million**

iWarMachine said:

God Of War 3 has a shot for 5M too.

M.U.G.E.N said:

Exactly and I think GOW3 will reach 5mil personally.

jester2358 said:

edit: i think gow3 will pass 4.5 after looking at fable 2 sales

Dahum said:

God Of War III: 6  million

bumblejr2 said:
GoWIII: 4Million

I have 23, you have 26. So there must be 3 duplicates in there..

I count 18 for underestimates, assuming there are also 3 duplicates that's 23/15 split.

A little different from my original figures, I can only guess that the wires got crossed in totalling up and the differences were added to the wrong totals.

5 were within the realms of being correct.

So with the new totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 23 / 15 *corrected

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected

Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

76/ 47

Final Result: 29 overestimated surplus

Thus with your figures and mine we  confirming "there were more underestimators then overestimaters" a lie. In fact it would take GoW hitting 5 million, UC2 hitting 6 million and GT5 hitting 9 million to break even on it. Just confirms theres way more crow to eat for the other guys.

 

You're clearly not understanding what these predictions were about. They are lifetime predictions. Therefore, you can not say a prediction was an overestimation, until sales have stopped (or at least reached a level where it is clear that reaching the prediction is not going to happen).

At this point in time, there are only 2 classifications for predictions: underestimated or undetermined. No prediction made so far has been an overestimation. If the number has not yet been reached, it is undetermined, because it may yet be reached. You only "eat crow" when you've been proven wrong. If I say "GT5 will sell 7 million by year's end", I don't "eat crow" everyday during 2011 that it hasn't reached 7 million. I either eat crow after 2011 (if GT5 misses), or someone who said that I was wrong will eat crow (if GT5 was to surpass the target).

Frankly, you can argue your case all you want, but you are definitely and definitively wrong, 100% incorrect at this point in time. If, in a few years time, when all these games have stopped selling, there are more people who overestimated than underestimated, you can come back to this thread and say you were right, that more people were too optimisic than pessimistic. But for now, it can only correctly be said who has underestimated, because we don't know if anyone has overestimated (as the figures may or may not reach their predictions).



GreyianStorm said:

You're clearly not understanding what these predictions were about. They are lifetime predictions. Therefore, you can not say a prediction was an overestimation, until sales have stopped (or at least reached a level where it is clear that reaching the prediction is not going to happen).

At this point in time, there are only 2 classifications for predictions: underestimated or undetermined. No prediction made so far has been an overestimation. If the number has not yet been reached, it is undetermined, because it may yet be reached. You only "eat crow" when you've been proven wrong. If I say "GT5 will sell 7 million by year's end", I don't "eat crow" everyday during 2011 that it hasn't reached 7 million. I either eat crow after 2011 (if GT5 misses), or someone who said that I was wrong will eat crow (if GT5 was to surpass the target).

Frankly, you can argue your case all you want, but you are definitely and definitively wrong, 100% incorrect at this point in time. If, in a few years time, when all these games have stopped selling, there are more people who overestimated than underestimated, you can come back to this thread and say you were right, that more people were too optimisic than pessimistic. But for now, it can only correctly be said who has underestimated, because we don't know if anyone has overestimated (as the figures may or may not reach their predictions).

Level-headed post. Really, this is what I was looking for in response to the bump.



                                                                                                                                            

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mendozahotness said:
osamanobama said:

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions.

You are wrong. I posted this earlier

mendozahotness said:

calibrate` said:

Gran Turismo 5: 10 - 12 million - Average 11 M

leatherhat said:

GT5 can do 10 million **REVISED TO 11 Million later**

TrevDaRev said:

I don't think it'll reach that number, but I do think it has a good shot at 11 million.  **(REVISED UPWARDS FROM 9.5M)**

bumblejr2 said:
GT5: 20Million!!! -11million :)
Vetteman94 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 11 M
Scoobes said:
GT5 I think lifetime could reach 10 million **REVISED DOWN FROM "GT3/GT4 NUMBERS"** - Average of over 11M
susymar said:
GT5: 13 million (I'm serious)

makingmusic476 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 9-11 million

The last one being the one I said depends on how you look at it.

i must have used 10.5 for the second.

the 3rd one say 9.5, but has good chance at 11 million, i believe i used 10.5 million on this one.

i must have missed vettemen.

scoobes said could reach 10 million (i believe this is the number i used), i dont know hat he meant by average of 11 million.

one guy said 13 million

last guy had average of 10 million.

so again only one person had a number of over 11 million, 3 to 6 said 11 million depending on how you look at it..

so again a lot more people predicted under 8 million than over 11 million.

and as for Uncharted and God of war you have no argument, people were horrible in their predictions

for uncharted overall 35/50 were to low and by the end of this year it will be 47/50 that are too low.

for GOW3 overall 28/50 were to low, and will be 36/50 by the end of this year.

and both these game had 24 or 25 out of 25 to low before they were released, only when people started seeing how they were selling did they revise or predict higher, which arent much of predictions when its after the fact.

the numbers are against you, and i dont understand the point of you arguing, other than you hate the ps3 (made apparrent by your post history)



Mmm, the crow is good (wasn't I supposed to start right now?)



Oh god! My head hurts.



CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

Yeah I've decided i'm not going to reply to him because he is obviously on a mission. 



CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:
CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

Well, that's the problem.

Moreso when the aura of the thread continues to contradict him. Oh well, by the time these titles actually reach their lifetime totals, they will be higher than most people predicted (save for GT5, which is a tough one to call this early).

Definitely. In GT5's case it's really a tough one, I think the best thing to do would be to wait for its' second holiday season and its' first official price cut. After that it really depends on bundling, I guess.



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