Quantcast
UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

Forums - Sony Discussion - UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

dsage01 said:
Wow lol people were so off for Uncharted 2. I don't think one person could have thought it would be for where it is today. God of War 3 looked pretty damn underestimated as well. And GT5 looks to do about 8.5 million but if bundled decently than 10 million



yawns

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=86948



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

Around the Network
CGI-Quality said:
yo_john117 said:
mendozahotness said:
Whoa lots of crow to eat in this thread.

People really over estimated god of war 3 and GT5.

"10 million with ease" LMAO!

If Sony hadn't given so much Uncharted 2 away with the big hard drive sku, it'd be the same.

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

Keep in mind there's far less overestimation than under. Predictions for God of War III to hit 5 million aren't necessarily overestimated yet and GT5 is still tracking higher than GT4, which went on to sell over 10 million.

That doesn't surprise me in the least. When it comes to exclusive games many people love to hate and put down stupidly low numbers. 

Keep in mind I only skimmed this thread a bit so that's why my quote to him said that.



yo_john117 said:
CGI-Quality said:
yo_john117 said:
mendozahotness said:
Whoa lots of crow to eat in this thread.

People really over estimated god of war 3 and GT5.

"10 million with ease" LMAO!

If Sony hadn't given so much Uncharted 2 away with the big hard drive sku, it'd be the same.

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

Keep in mind there's far less overestimation than under. Predictions for God of War III to hit 5 million aren't necessarily overestimated yet and GT5 is still tracking higher than GT4, which went on to sell over 10 million.

That doesn't surprise me in the least. When it comes to exclusive games many people love to hate and put down stupidly low numbers. 

Keep in mind I only skimmed this thread a bit so that's why my quote to him said that.

No worries.



                                                                                                                                            

CGI-Quality said:
yo_john117 said:
mendozahotness said:
Whoa lots of crow to eat in this thread.

People really over estimated god of war 3 and GT5.

"10 million with ease" LMAO!

If Sony hadn't given so much Uncharted 2 away with the big hard drive sku, it'd be the same.

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

Keep in mind there's far less overestimation than under. Predictions for God of War III to hit 5 million aren't necessarily overestimated yet and GT5 is still tracking higher than GT4, which went on to sell over 10 million.


God of War 3 is pretty much guaranteed to hit 5 million. Might even do it this year with trilogy and ultimate collection sales included.



Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

BHR-3 said:
dsage01 said:
Wow lol people were so off for Uncharted 2. I don't think one person could have thought it would be for where it is today. God of War 3 looked pretty damn underestimated as well. And GT5 looks to do about 8.5 million but if bundled decently than 10 million



yawns

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=86948


OMG I can't stop laughing at that thread. Most people thought it would do less than 1.5 million by the and of 2009. And a lot of people thought it would do only 600-800k just lololololol. And looking at the final results it was almost at 3 million by year's end. I hope Uncharted 3 can surprise us the same way UC2 did



Around the Network
yo_john117 said:

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings:

Official Results

Overestimated/ Underestimated

 

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 31 / 11

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected


Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

84/ 43

Final Result: 41 overestimated surplus

 

This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000.

Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.



mendozahotness said:

This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings:

Official Results

Overestimated/ Underestimated

 

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 31 / 11

Gran Turismo 5 = 39 / 2


Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

88/ 42

Final Result: 46 overestimated surplus

 

This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000.

Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.

I'm sure this will go on deaf ears, but much of what you've done here doesn't add up, or exaggerates the situation. Uncharted 2 only has three predictions of anything over 5.2million (something it will reach here shortly). The rest of the posts (pre-release - not a single one pegged it higher than 5 million), have been anywhere between 4.5 & 5.2million. As I said, you cherry picked a few predictions and claimed to tally them up. I didn't have to do any of that to see how off you were.

God of War III's case is similar (with you including 5 million & 6 million predictions together). Since the game hasn't finished selling, you don't know where it will settle. Fact is, it's about to clear the majority of the predictions pre-release. Post release are either revised predictions or 1st time predictions based on the game's performance. Most of them will come to pass.

Gran Turismo 5 is the only one that you can even begin to make any claims about (and even then it's far from done in sales). Harder to judeg, but I saw maybe three 11 and/or 12 million predictions. Most were anywhere between 7 & 9.5mill (the former being something it will definitely reach and the latter not necessarily out of the question given the franchise's history and GT5's current sell pattern in conjunction to it's predecessor).

Bottom line, all three haven't finished selling and most predictions were underestimated.



                                                                                                                                            

CGI-Quality said:

I'm sure this will go on deaf ears, but much of what you've done here doesn't add up, or exaggerates the situation.

Nope, there may have been the odd repeated guess counted but the difference would be no more than 3 or 4. Not enough to tip the scales out of the overestimates favour. As it stands, Uncharted 2 is the only game to do better than expected, God of War 3 and GT5 are underperforming significantly and as I said before, there are still more overestimations then underestimations.

CGI-Quality said:

Uncharted 2 only has three predictions of anything over 5.2million (something it will reach here shortly). The rest of the posts (pre-release - not a single one pegged it higher than 5 million), have been anywhere between 4.5 & 5.2million. As I said, you cherry picked a few predictions and claimed to tally them up. I didn't have to do any of that to see how off you were.

Not sure why you're singling out, pre-release guesses. Several of the post release guesses are also way over and this was using more up to date figures. You'd think that would mean they'd be more accurate.

There's been no cherry picking involved, this is every guess from the inception of the topic to the last post being mine, if people updated their figures (very few did) they were usually upward revisions and not even that drastic. The only cherry picking here has been done by you.

CGI-Quality said:

Post release are either revised predictions or 1st time predictions based on the game's performance. Most of them will come to pass.

Maybe, most likely not. Either way, they're incorrect AT THIS MOMENT. Therefoe much crow to be eaten from the day these games went on sale to now and a long long time ahead.

CGI-Quality said:

Most were anywhere between 7 & 9.5mill (the former being something it will definitely reach and the latter not necessarily out of the question given the franchise's history and GT5's current sell pattern in conjunction to it's predecessor).

Bottom line, all three haven't finished selling and most predictions were underestimated.

When that happens, the crow serving will stop. For the next 5-6 years, servings will continue.The bottom line is, even using revised sales date, there are way more over predictions overall and by a far larger margin of error than any of the Uncharted 2 guesses. Which if anything further justifies that it's the over guesses who should be eating crow.

CGI-Quality said:

Gran Turismo 5 is the only one that you can even begin to make any claims about (and even then it's far from done in sales). Harder to judeg, but I saw maybe three 11 and/or 12 million predictions.

Well that's see hmm. Starting with the over 9.5m+ ones first

darthdevidem01 said:
GRAN TURISMO 5 -- 10 Million
BHR-3 said:

vgc must of adjusted there gt5 sales i dont remember it being that high so maybe 10M has a shot

calibrate` said:

Gran Turismo 5: 10 - 12 million

nickvasko said:

GT5 will touch 9/10million

CGI-Quality said:

Gran Turismo 5 - 10 mill.

BloodyRain said:

Gran Turismo 5: 9-10 million

leatherhat said:

GT5 can do 10 million **REVISED TO 11 Million later**

iWarMachine said:

Gran Turismo 5 probably will not have much pre-orders, but sure it'll have sales to reach 10-11M LTD...

TrevDaRev said:

I don't think it'll reach that number, but I do think it has a good shot at 11 million.  **(REVISED UPWARDS FROM 9.5M)**

NSS7 said:

 GT5 should do 9-11 million. With all the contents it offered it deserve 10 million sales.

bumblejr2 said:
GT5: 20Million!!! -11million :)
Vetteman94 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 11 M
Scoobes said:
GT5 I think lifetime could reach 10 million **REVISED DOWN FROM "GT3/GT4 NUMBERS"**
Gilgamesh said:

Gran Turismo 5: 9.5 million

susymar said:
GT5: 13 million (I'm serious)
luvtospooge said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 10mil if bundled.

makingmusic476 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 9-11 million

Total of 17 said over 9.5 million - They should all be eating crow as these are even further off base then the Uncharted 2/gow predictions. Averaging the ranges, bings us a total guess of 177 Million sales, for an average guess of 10.4 million copies of GT5, approximately 4 million off of what it is now. Tsk.

Lets see who simply guessed over it's current total

KeyStyle said:
GT5=9 million
with price cut and/or slim i think the lifetime sales will be bigger!!!)
sabby_e17 said:
Gran Turismo 5: 9 million
DirtyP2002 said:
  • GT5: 8.5 million
XxXProphecyXxX said:
*GT5 - 7m - 9m.
Slimebeast said:
Gran Turmiso 5 - 7.56 million **REVISED UPWARDS TO 9 MILLION IF BUNDLED**
Kantor said:

. I predict 8.5-9.5 million sales: the highest selling PS3 game, the lowest selling full Gran Turismo, and it won't outsell Halo 3.

coolbeans said:
GT5= Hmmm.....I guess 7-8 mil?
--OkeyDokey-- said:
GT5: 8 million
toastboy44562 said:
gt5-8 million
ClaudeLv250 said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 8.5m
FJ-Warez said:
Gran Turismo 5 : 7 M - 9 M
Bagaren85 said:
Gran Turismo 5 : 7.8 M
irtz said:

Gt5 near  9 million

jester2358 said:

lets say 9.5 million, unless it explodes like gt3 of course. 

Chibi.V.29 said:

 gt5 in recon could pull of an 9.5

9087 said:

GT5 will easily reach 7.5 million LTD.

PlaystaionGamer said:

The most it could do, and this is WITH alot of hope. would be 7mil life. not a chance of more

Dahum said:

Gran Turismo 5: 9  million

Total of 18 estimates and a total of 151.8 million copies of GT5 is an average of 8.43 million.

Combine that with the above and you get 328.8 million / 35  and you get an average of 9.39 million for GT5, 3 million over estimated overall. A whopping 46 % more sales then it has.

More importantly, anyone above should be eating much crow, every day until it matches their estimates. Which is either many years of never, the latter looking more likely.

So as proven, 35 over estimates was within tolerance of what I said above and proves there was no cherry picking, only 4 duplicate estimates, any revisions have been posted. Thus confirming I'm being truthful. Once again the only cherry picking done by you. 3? Seriously? Check again before posting.

To finalise this analysis those who under estmated GT5

Carl2291 said:

 Gran Turismo 5 - 5 Million max.

Aion said:
GT5- 6 million
legend92(3) said:
Gran Turismo 5- 5-6 million

3 people (1 more than i originally said so I guess I missed it) - An average of 5.5 million copies of GT5, within 800K of its current total.

And those who were within 200,000 tolerance or technically still correct,  well done to you.

PlaystaionGamer said:

Gran Turismo 5: 5.9/6.2 at most

zaMy said:
GT5 4 - 7 mill.
KeyStyle said:
Gran Turismo 5 - 6,3m

So in analysis

35 People over estimated GT5 sales by almost 3 million on average.

3 people underestimate GT5 sales by almost 800,000 on average.

3 people were close enough to be considered correct.

So odds are, if you made a GT5 sales prediction here, 88.5% of you should be eating crow. 



mendozahotness said:
yo_john117 said:

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings:

Official Results

Overestimated/ Underestimated

 

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 31 / 11

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected


Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

84/ 43

Final Result: 41 overestimated surplus

 

This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000.

Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.

It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it.



yo_john117 said:
mendozahotness said:
yo_john117 said:

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings:

Official Results

Overestimated/ Underestimated

 

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 31 / 11

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected


Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

84/ 43

Final Result: 41 overestimated surplus

 

This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000.

Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.

It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it.

Indeed, which basically makes much of his point not only premature, but wrong in places. Nothing is done selling, but one thing's for sure, there's already MUCH more under-predicting than over. It won't matter in the end though, because God of War III & Uncharted 2 already proved themselves to be higher sellers than a ton of games this gen (God of War III being the highest selling in it's genre as well as franchise). Uncharted 2 should peak at around 5.5million or so, while God of War III should peak at around my prediction of 4.7mill.

All that's left to consider is GT5. Since it's really opening up in EMEAA, that region should offset it's performance in Japan and keep it selling at least close to GT4 (which it's doing on a weekly basis as is). It should reach 10 million that way.