Unfortunately Microsoft needs 3rd parties to survive in this industry and they won´t let them go away with a 4 year life cicle.

In this business most machines have their greates time during their third year - but in a 4 year life cicle the 3rd year will be the year the next machine is hyped --> no big games, no profits, no big 3rd year, no time to get used to the system, during 4 years it is impossible to seel enough units to make the business worth it. After 4 years the PS2 had 75 million units sold - just imagine what would happen with higher developement costs but less consoles sold?

No, it wouldn´t happen and hurt the industry too much.

Its not going to happen. Its to early they already are starting to build a userbase. They just wouldn't give up on the 360 altogether. I give it till 2010 and Microsoft will release its next console. But saying E3 2008 Microsoft will announce a new console, is to hard to believe. The original console died because Microsoft was in contract disputes with Nvidia. They wanted to reduce the cost on the graphics chip, but Nvidia fired back and stop production on the graphic chips, which made Microsoft release the 360.

This isn't going to happen this time. Microsoft knows now and they are going to push this 360 for 5 or more years.

My cat's breath smells like cat food.

I could see this happening. If they were to make a fully BC, competitively priced new console with an updated GPU/processor that surpasses the PS3's graphical capabilities, and introduce it in the middle of the PS3's lifecycle, they could give Sony a real run for their money.

The only problem would be that they'd have to build a whole new userbase, rendering the original 360 base completely obsolete. I retract my first statement, this would be a horrible idea. But the idea of getting a redesigned MS console that doesn't go all Red Ringy on us is just too enticing to completely disregard!

I guess I'd expect that the next XboX to be 100% backward compatible with the 360.  I could see this scenario rolling out if they are able to simple use a new iteration of the GPU, and a souped up, but similar processor (ala PC development withe x86 artitecture).  The next box contains the winner of the HD/Blu-Ray format.

 Microsoft could roll at that point.  With similar GPU/CPU, backwards compatibility should be a synch.  If the next box is viewed more as a new iteration, and allows a seamless move for the developers....

It is a lot of if's though...

Pat E 

I think this theory doesn't work. If MS launched a new console in 09, no one would buy it. They would get pissed that MS released a new one so early. Plus, developers are already investing and losing loads of money meeting this gen's graphical standards. There's no way they're going to even think about ramping it up 2x so soon.

Most people are still playing PS2. XBOX 3 simply isn't going to happen until post-2010, more like 2012

The best MS could do anytime soon is release a completely redesigned 360 - possibly with a Wiimote type controller.

The key element here, is that it *must* have the same technical specs as the existing 360 - can't have new software developed which doesn't work on existing units.

They could add a new Wiimote type controller, half the size of the console, consolidate the chips - and drop the price to $199 (or lower), and just make it look tight, small and sexy.

The 360 is just starting to build nicely, and take off. There is no "power" advantage for the PS3 - so increased specs wouldn't help MS sell more units. A lower price point however would help.

...

Its going to be really fascinating to see how all console makers respond this generation, and to see what they come up with next. You also have to wonder if Apple, Google or someone else will consider jumping in with a "low-price" solution. It wouldn't surprise me. 

not happening. Microsoft won't ever make money off the Xbox if they keep releasing consoles every four years. Theirs and Sonys strategies requires a slow lifecycle for them to get profitability. Only Nintendo's "profit from the beginning" strategy allows them to have a short lifecycle, but being the winning console currently they have nothing to gain by bringing out their successor early. Expect all three consoles' successors to appear later than usual

Unlikely to happen, too soon, too much money to get back...

Is like Nintendo with the Wii2... or WiiHD...

Throwing away 11 or 12 millions of users??? not to mention the developers (You know what, we made a new console, buy us the new dev-kits)...

Non-sense...

 they will be disruptive only to themselves...

if you want something to dream,

you can dream about a psp2 vs x-little-box vs gameboynext/ds2!!!!