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Forums - Sales Discussion - A new top ten list.

UPDATE: (28th December) Wii sports AND Nintendogs are in the top ten list at numbers 9 and 10.... I believe Nitendogs just managed to pass The Sims before Wii sports passed them both at once. (I will post a table of the million sellers list as a new post)
I am no longer sure whether Pokemon will make it to number 10, Wii sports and Nintendogs are sure to pass SMB3 (currently No8) which means for Pokemon to get to No10 it needs to sell 17.28 million.... I may be being pessimistic on Pokemons legs due to the GBA efforts, but perhaps Ruby/Sapphire only managed 15 million because of the GBAs short life.

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UPDATE: (19th November) Nintendogs now at the number 10 postion.

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UPDATE: (20th October) I decided to bump this thread in light of the new thread where people keep trying to discount pack-in games from the "Top Ten list of purchased games".
Whether they wanted to buy the game or not has nothing to do with this list...... So, taking that into account, feel free to read (or read again) my reasoning behind which games have the possibility of reaching the top ten list from this generation.
(i didn't include a chart in this as i didn't know how then, but as it cut off the sales numbers in the other thread i won't bother adding one...just go to the World-->Software tab to see the list.
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looking at the worldwide software charts i have become interested in the imminent change, and the near future (this generation) changes we will be seeing to the top ten best selling games of all time.

For instance there are a number of current generation games still climbing the ladder with the potential to make the top ten, that being more than the 15.18 million sales of Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire.

  • The first to cross that mark i would think is obvious (as it is currently No11 and still selling quite well) should be Nintendogs, although not doing so well in Japan anymore in comparison it still often makes the top 20 for the US, and i assume is selling more than that in 'others'.... with only 260,000 to go it should manage it before christmas, probably before December when sales increase in November.
  • PS2s San Andreas i would think is still selling at least in Europe, whether it can pass the 15.18M mark i'm not sure, but it certainly won't do it in time to make the top ten.
  • Next is New Super Mario on the DS still selling 30k per week in Japan and America, it could pass the 15.18M mark but it has a long way to go (over 4.5 million) so again i don't think it will make it in time to be in the top ten.
  • Wii Sports follows and should pass 15M before the end of the year (largely due to the bundling but also the tremendous attach rate in Jp) and probably early next year, or possibly still this year will overtake Nintendogs pushing it back out of the top ten shortly after it entered. (pretty sure this is what will happen... Nintendogs currently No10 will get pushed out by Wii Sports, but will be back in the top ten 3/4 weeks after
  • Next is Pokemon Diamond/Pearl for DS which i am quite sure will pass the sales of Ruby/Sapphire, and probably the current number 9 which is The Sims (PC- 16.08M)....but i am unsure as to whether it will be this, or Nintendogs that passes The Sims first as i am not sure on the trend of Pokemons Legs outside of Japan, and don't know the weekly 'others' sales numbers for it....my Guess would be Nintendogs gets there first (meaning it's second appearance at the top.

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So those are the Top 5 games that are still selling decent numbers, 2 of them (Nintendogs/Wiisports) are definately going to be in the top ten, and a third (Pokemon) i am not sure about but if it can surpass Super Mario Bros 3 at 17.28M then it is definate, though it may not hold it for long due to...

Wii play which will also likely make the Top 10 (for All 4 above to make it they have to sell more than Super Mario Land (GB) at 18.14 million) (i am not so sure about this anymore, as i think it may get to the top ten before Pokemon)

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other games that could pass 15.18million but will not make it in time;

Brain Training

Animal Crossing:WW

Mario Kart DS

More Brain Training

Halo3? (i am doubtful but some think it could)

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Games that could make the top 10 but are not yet released.

Wii Fit

Mario Galaxy

Super Smash Bros: Brawl

Mario Kart Wii

Grand Turismo 5 (unlikely in my opinion, even if doubles GT4 it would only be 17M)

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Thoughts anyone?



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Is there no way to change a threads title once posted? i clicked edit but it only showed the post content.



GT sold 26,580,000 units last gen, Nothing but GTA comes close to the greatness that is this game.



interesting post



Gran Turismo didn't sell 26.5 million copies last gen, or do you mean both of them combined, or is that simply a typo?



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

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dtewi said:
Gran Turismo didn't sell 26.5 million copies last gen, or do you mean both of them combined, or is that simply a typo?

 I was talking about all the games in the series for the PS2.



Well considering Gran Turismo 3 sold 14 million copies and 4 only sold 8 and the PS3's userbase is small and Gran Turismo 3 couldn't make it into the top ten while releasing on a console with an extremly large userbase, I doubt GT5 will get into the top ten.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

GranTurismo you name suggests you are a fan of the game, and i would agree it is a great franchise with excellent games, but combining GT3, GT4, GT4prologue and the concept thing which was basically GT3prologue doesn't mean it is one game.
GT3 itself has sold slightly over half of your number, that is the maximum number a GT game has sold, and by the sales of GT4 i would guess peoples interest is waning.

GT5 in my opinion, (dependant on how the PS3s userbase grows and how good it is in the consumers opinion) will sell between 6 million and 18 million....the 6 is because the PS3s userbase is small and GT4 hasn't sold spectacularly and the 18 because it should continue selling from release (summer/autumn 08 ?) for at least a year and a half, and because even i still think the PS3 has a chance at selling over 60Million in it's life, so a 30% attach rate seems possible.

 

 and again IMO, my personal thoughts for where it could come in that range (6-18M) would be about 9M, because i think it will be about as successful as GT4 despite the huge differences in userbase. (although fans of the game would follow the system so strict %ages can't be used (ie 8M on a 100M userbase doesnt mean 800k on a 10M userbase).... i think roughly 3/4 of people who owned GT4 on PS2 will end up with a PS3 and GT5



does anyone know how to change a thread title?

 

oh yes, and i agree dtewi, i probably should have left out GT5....or possibly move it to the list of "could get more than 15.18 million but wont get to top 10" list, though i doubt it will get past 10M it has potential.



^oh, thanks
'tis unfortunate, i just thought i should have put something about "top ten best selling games" because the current title is a little non-specific.

Or maybe somehting akin to John Lucas like "The Wii and DS will totally overhaul the total software list" ....might have got the thread a bit more notice.