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Why Sony Can't Sell the Most Hardware this Generation

Forums - Sales Discussion - Why Sony Can't Sell the Most Hardware this Generation

it`s all peace of shit. 1) you can`t judge about sales of ps3 and wii, because they only 4 month and are not very avalaible in some place/countries. 2) you don`t know how people reacted after GDC showing Home and LTB. 3) you don`t know how will be ps3 selling in europe. 4) you don`t know how many people will buy xbox360 premium after price drop to 300$ and new zephyr 120GB with HDMI release for 400$. 5) you don`t know how many people cares about HDMI. 6) you don`t know how many Kill`ap`s will be released this year on ps3. 7) you don`t know how many people will still buy wii, even though till fall there are no much hardcore games. 8) you don`t know how many people will buy wii after price drop. 9) you don`t know will sony drop price for ps3 in europe/usa this year or not. 10) you dfon`t know how many people will buy ps3/xbxo360 just to play one of those games GTA4, MGS4 or Killzone2.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Crazzy, yeah I am basically guessing by looking at trends. But here is how I'd address your questions. 1) 4 months is not much time. But look at this way: Wii is meeting Nintendo's expectations for sales, PS3 is not meeting Sony's. 2) Reaction was largely positive among the hardcore. But casuals don't know about it yet, and I don't think many will care. 3) 1 million preorders is what I saw. I don't think Sony can ship that many to the various countries of the PAL region by the end of March, which is why I have sales strong through April. 4) Don't think this has a big effect on Sony's pricing strategy. 5) Isn't that part of the problem? Sony and Microsoft don't know either. 6) Isn't that part of the problem? Customers don't know either, if they did... 7) Wii has Super Paper Mario, and at least one of the trio of Galaxy, Brawl, Prime will be out by fall 8) Well it won't be less... 9) That is true. But the system is new enough that dropping the price this year gives off an air of desperation. It would help investors, 3rd parties, but piss off early adopter gamers. 10) Halo 3 and GTA 4 for 360 will be bigger than anything in the USA by Nintendo or Sony



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said: Crazzy, yeah I am basically guessing by looking at trends. But here is how I'd address your questions. 3) 1 million preorders is what I saw. I don't think Sony can ship that many to the various countries of the PAL region by the end of March, which is why I have sales strong through April.
I have a hard time beleiving that since Sony has had so-so sales thus far.



1) Well atm i would say the only console with "killer apps" is the 360 with gears of war and such, its been out a long time so of course it will have more than the other 2. Wii and ps3 have some on there way so id wait and see what they do to console sales around the world before making any comment on that. 2) Ps3 has not been released in europe so no one has any idea how well it will sell over here NO ONE! And with us(europe) having a much stronger launch line-up than the rest of the world it might be very sucessful - but who knows. 3) Price Drops!! Whatever order/date/amount these come in they will have a much bigger effect on the ps3 than the 360 or the Wii - People arent complaining about the price of a wii or 360 but they are with the ps3 and alot of people are holding back on the ps3 waiting for a price drop...are people doing that for the other two? It will have an effect on all consoles and sales will rise for all but not the same amount, but i guess we will have to wait and see how it happens. But then again who cares at this point??? Wii and ps3 havent even been out for half a year yet - and ps3 still isnt for sale in alot of the world. And all consoles are still at an early stage So posts like these are fun to read and reply to but....would make more sense to post them in about year or two



Short term the Wii and 360 won't just lead, they'll dominate, but long term, assuming the PS3 has the longerst lifespan and is the only system that will continue selling well into the next generation than I think the PS3 will win. I'm not suaded by February numbers at all. I knew for a while that the PS3 would not have a great 2007. The thing that has to happen is steady improvement over time. I don't know why Sony isn't more out front that they expect this to be a long term investment that won't pay off any time soon. Enough with all the stupid spin. When the system is $300, has lots of great amazing looking games, and Blue Ray is more in demand it will be doing great. Maybe it will be dominating monthly sales by then. Right now it's not that pretty, but in five years the PS3 may be the only one of the three that's still selling well.



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Kwaad said: I think alot of the j-games companies, are going to go next gen. And becuase of the PS3's power over the 360 in japan, I think alot of those will go with the PS3 over the 360. And becuase of that trend right there, is why I think the PS3 will continue to get great support.
Problem is allot of those companies are small and medium sized developers who don't have the money and resources to make an expensive, HD PS3 title.



Leo-j said: If a dvd for a pc game holds what? Crysis at 3000p or something, why in the world cant a blu-ray disc do the same?

ssj12 said: Player specific decoders are nothing more than specialized GPUs. Gran Turismo is the trust driving simulator of them all. 

"Why do they call it the xbox 360? Because when you see it, you'll turn 360 degrees and walk away" 

Christopher_G2 said: Short term the Wii and 360 won't just lead, they'll dominate, but long term, assuming the PS3 has the longerst lifespan and is the only system that will continue selling well into the next generation than I think the PS3 will win. I'm not suaded by February numbers at all. I knew for a while that the PS3 would not have a great 2007. The thing that has to happen is steady improvement over time. I don't know why Sony isn't more out front that they expect this to be a long term investment that won't pay off any time soon. Enough with all the stupid spin. When the system is $300, has lots of great amazing looking games, and Blue Ray is more in demand it will be doing great. Maybe it will be dominating monthly sales by then. Right now it's not that pretty, but in five years the PS3 may be the only one of the three that's still selling well.
How will the PS3 sell well in 5 years if it doesn't have any games? Sega , Activision, EA, Namco and Take-Two have all published quite a few games for the PS3 and been rewarded with poor sales (roughly 20% of the sales a similar game would have recieved on the PS2); if sales like this continue they will not be supporting the PS3 very heavily in 2008 ... Sony has to sell more PS3 systems in order for third parties to continue to make games for the PS3 so that it can exist in a few years ... Processing power and disc capacity are not what gives a platform a long life ...



What keeps a console alive into the next generation isn't good tech, it's profitability. Genesis and SNES were pretty much equals as far as hardware power is concerned, but the SNES ended up surviving a good couple years longer than Genesis. The PS2 was the least powerful of last-gen's systems. In fact, the first of the major last-gen consoles to die (DC is excluded... sadly was not "major" enough) was the one that was closest to current-gen tech. X-box's online system and internal hard drive make it the only console of its generation whose specs come close to what's expected today. The PS3 isn't going to be able to ride on its hardware... if it doesn't start eating up market share within, let's say 10 months (right after holiday season '07), it may very well be the first of this generation to stop production.



i want to add some of my thoughts to... first of all i would say that the worldwide console war couldn't be more open. but i think nintendo almost can't be beaten in japan anymore, mainly because of the success of the ds and the nintendo hype there at the moment. the other two markets are still very open, it is also possible that all consoles win one market (wii-japan, xbox-america, ps3-europe.) but the aces of sony that the pro-ps3 guys in here mentioned all aren't counting much for me. first thing is the blue-ray-player: this may be a reason for people to buy ps3 in japan and america, but in europe it surely won't be. most of the people here don't know about blue-ray and i have no idea were i could buy blue-ray films, i don't think that they are sold in switzerland already. this means that it will take a very long time to establish in europe and it will be too late to sell consoles. that leads me to the second point, your idea that ps3 could win in the long run. has somebody of you ever seen that happening before? it sure won't be the case, because after about two years in a console-lifecycle good third party games are only published for consoles with big userbases, and that means that a slow starting console just will get more and more problems later on in its lifecycle. the third point some of you mentioned is the price drop. you said that there aren't people holding back getting a wii until the price drops, but there are a lot that are doing this with ps3. this may be true, but if the wii-price drops, its price is on a level were you don't really think about it before you decide. i mean, most of the people that are buying a wii at the moment have the idea sometimes, then think about it and then go into a store to buy it. after a price drop, people will go to stores occasionally, see somebody playing wii sports and then buying the console because it is so cheap. on friday, i saw a couple in a store that acted almost like that. they were looking at ps2 games, but then they saw a wii and started talking with the shop assistant about it. after a couple of minutes they wanted one, but they were not sure if they want to spend so much money in that moment. i left at this moment, so i don't know if they finally bought it or not, but i am sure they would if wii had a price drop, and i am sure that you can observe similar scenes all over europe and america. so i would say that wii profits at least as much from a price drop as ps3 would. but even if those three points aren't factors to help the ps3, i still expect it to have a very strong launch in europe and may even win the console war, but for that, sony has to do quite a lot of things right in the next time.



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

In case you didn't know, you can check the video game prediction market for the current prediction on how many units each console will sell at http://www.thesimexchange.com All predictions are global over lifetime of the machine: The Nintendo DS is predicted to sell 68.31 million units PS3 to sell 46.40 million units PSP to sell 34.72 million units Wii to sell 62.93 million units Xbox 360 to sell 50.54 million units This only provides you an aggregated quantitative forecast indicating Sony will not sell the most hardware this generation, but doesn't provide you qualitative reasons why it won't. I am personally long PlayStation 3 shares. I think the picture for the PS3 is looking better as Sony attempts to remedy the biggest complaints with the PS3 (such as lack of rumble, lack of DVD upscaling). Although Sony has lost a number of exclusives (and the media has jumped on this), I have read that there are still more third party exclusives in the works for the PS3 than the Wii and Xbox 360 (whether these exclusives are worthwhile is another question).