I can't see Wii Fit being a big opening weekend kind of game, I just can't imagine the target casual market pre-ordering and queuing.

Not to mention this is a hardware based game, will Nintendo be able to ramp up production and get those hardware units out there? Historically, the answer is no.

I have no doubt it will be a huge seller, but not a "big bang quick sell" one.

Not only is it a new ip..

Why even bother...

Why even bother typing that Leo-J :P J/K

Lucas usually I respect your predictions as somewhat insane but fairly well thought out, this one is just a publicity stunt =

Hey John, Can you clarify 1 thing...

Do you mean, Wii Fit Life time sales in Japan vs Halo 3 Launch?

or

Wii Fit Launch Week in Japan vs Halo 3 Launch week WW???

If it's the latter, then no way... between 400 - 600K at most... However, if it's the first option then yes, I agree with you. Wii Fit Lifetime Japan will trounce Halo 3 launch week WW.

Just Wow I think you will fail on this one Jonh bacause there is no way Nintendo can supply that many wii boards but I think you will be close. As normal

Wii Fit launch week vs. Halo 3 launch week.

Little do you all know but my feelings on Wii Fit influence my predictions on the AT LEAST 20 million worldwide Wii end year sales total and my AT LEAST 240,000,000 worldwide Wii lifetime sales total.

It's a no-brainer that Wii Fit will outsell Halo 3 in the long run. There's no danger in saying that. But I see Wii Fit being a huge deal most especially in Japan where Nintendo has shown they understand that market best of all. The whole Wii/DS project was concentrated on winning over Japan first and foremost then going out to the rest of the world. Notice how DS does there Vs. here and how slowly but surely the rest of the world is beginning to match how DS is in Japan.

I need to clarify that post because it can interpreted in too many ways.

I submit that Wii Fit's 1st week in Japan will match and surpass Halo 3 1st week worldwide (there's no question about Wii Fit beating Japan's Halo 3 total).

And for further confirmation I submit that when all 1st week regional launches of Wii Fit are tallied up WITH the 1st week Japan figure that it will underline the trumping of Halo 3 saleswise.

I really wanted to say Wii Fit 1st week worldwide beats Halo 3 1st week worldwide but the launch dates are staggered. In all truth this is my source statement only adjusted to reflect the realities of the staggered launch.

There's a reason Japan is getting a headstart on this and that is because they know it will be gangbusters there. People don't think Nintendo can make enough but I bet people will be surprised with the amount of Wiis and Wii Fit packages that will be available. They are not going to leave all this money on the table.

They want people to incorporate this into their morning routine and want Wii Fit to be legitimately seen as an aid in exercise. They want it known that it CAN help you lose weight and get in shape. THAT is the biggest selling point of this package. And once that message takes root starting with Japan it will create a frenzy worldwide making Wii Fit an utter Giga Bowserian behemoth on the sales charts for the rest of the generation.

Once Wii Fit is seen as a legit exercise aid USA, Europe and all the rest of the world will EAT. THIS. *UP*

I guarantee you. But it all starts in Japan first.

I could have talked about Brawl which will also be tremendous but even Brawl is gonna be a poor shadow saleswise in comparison to the future monster known as Wii Fit.

Too much money on the table in holiday 2007. Nintendo's like the Mario and Wario Bros. No coin is left unturned. They will be ready for the Christmas season, trust me.

John Lucas

Holy shit, you really are insane. o_O

In a good way of course. I had faith in your Wii vs 360 prediction, and your MGS4 prediction makes total sense, although Konami seems to be too stupid to see where the money is. All that being said, I don't see this happening. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl was massive in the Japan, and it only sold half of what you're saying Wii Fit will do. Even if it had the amount of hype Pokeyman does, the evidence we have points to casual games have smallish launches, but proceed to sell strongly for obscenely long amounts of time.

I can definitely see Wii Fit outselling Halo 3 in the long run, though. Imagine if Nintendogs was only being released now, and someone came to tell us that it'll sell over 15 million copies over the years. Heck, he'd be treated pretty much like you're being treated right now.

Hmm...

You know what? Forget everything I just said, and consider me a supporter of your latest prediction. Someone who's as awesome as you just has to be right, and crow tastes best when you share it with someone anyway. =P

Japan opening week will be larger for Wii fit that Halo 3. There are not enough Wiis in Japan for Japan alone to be larger than Halo 3 World Wide, especially no way Nintendo will be able to make enough for launch week...

One year after they are both released in all territories, Wii fit will likely exceed Halo 3.


Didn't wii fit used to be available on Amazon for preorder? I was going to check it's ranking, and although it's still there, the preorder option isn't available anymore...  They ussually only take those options off if they get too many preorderes.

I'll put it this way:

If Nintendo happened to ship 10m units of WiiFit + bundled with enough Wiis in Japan (for whatever reasonable price) - in the first week - I think it would have a good chance of beating Halo.

But they simply won't ship enough units. Imagine if there was an "adjustment" needed in the hardware. Nintendo would not ship a ridiculous number of units first week, in the (unlikely?) event that this occurred.

If there is anywhere in the world that would love WiiFit - it could almost become a national obsession - it would be Japan. I also expect it to push the online connectivity rate through the roof.