Perhaps the blue ocean Nintendo waded into this generation with the Wii isn't so deep and so wide as we first believed. Thats what it seems like at present. We have the Xbox 360 exceeding the Wii in weekly sales in the U.K, the PS3 exceeding the Wii in weekly sales earlier this year in Japan and overall sales down 20% when the Wii itself is just as affordable the day its released. With the Wii always being sold out for the first two years of its life perhaps the limitations of its sales potential could not become apparant. We know the audience is capable of rapid adoption, the real question is about whether theres enough audience for sustained rapid adoption of the console.

There are plenty of people out there who have been interested by the Wii but haven't yet adopted the console, theres absolutely no disputing that. Those sales will continue to trickle in unabated. However beyond cleaning up the last of their core fanbase and people who had been interested in but hadn't yet aquired the Wii as the features/benefits exist now, I don't see anything on the near roadmap which isn't just going to simply speed people who are already interested in the console into making a purchase. Perhaps at this point we're seeing the effect of a lack of certain third/first party type games coming into play and Nintendo could be losing some of the existing gamer demographics.

Could the 50M sales the Wii has now be essentially the same as the well understood 3rd year peak only coming one year sooner? The Nintendo Wii sold rapidly, but that sustained rise may have only sped up the point of noticeable saturation and declining sales. The internet and media have changed since the earlier generations and people found out about it quicker and the unique selling proposition of the console got them into the stores faster. So perhaps in the end the idea that the Wii will get >50% market share or outsell the PS2 have to be put under deep scrutiny.

Or it could simply be the relative failure of Wii Music and Animal Crossing, coupled with the delay in the launch of WM+ (and therefore WSR) meaning that the Wii has gone a long time without any huge games. Luckily, we have WSR, MH3, Wii Fit +, NSMB:Wii all coming before Christmas.

The Wii is fine, get over it

silly soriku. It's a rectangular prism. It's the PS3 that is domed.

With WSR the Wii is still lower than any point in 2008 in Japan and its still significantly down YOY when compared to the same point last year. Why would Wii Fit+ which is even less of an improvement and more like an expansion pack for the title do much better? MH3 is big just inside Japan and NSMB caters specifically to the Nintendo audience that are already big fans of Mario, why would that have a significant effect? Tell me, why any game aside from MH3 alone improve Wii sales significantly when they are directly applicable to mainly people who already have the console?

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&start=39264&end=39999

Theres Japan for a years weekly sales.

I have always questioned the Wii's longevity and been shot down for it on most occasions. I guess we'll see, this years holiday season will be telltale of which peaks have been reached and not.
There is still lots to be done by way of price cuts etc but the Wii was very cheap to begin with and doesn't have the same leeway in that it is pretty much already at mass market price (which has surely contributed a lot to the staggering sales thus far).

Time is the only prophet in this but I do believe OP is on to something at the very least.

For the love of god not another one.....

The Wii cant sell like hotcakes forever. Get over it.

You're picking some random events and numbers that seem to be backing your claim, yet they are completely unrelated.
So the 360 outsold the Wii for some months in UK, so what? UK is just a fraction of the PAL market, and if you check the weekly European charts, the Wii is comfortably leading all the time.
PS3 outsold Wii for some weeks in Japan, but that's over again, and seemed to be due to a Wii software draught. And don't forget that ALL consoles were/are doing pretty bad in Japan currently. 10000 PS3 units (current Japanese preview) are not quite reason to rejoice either.

Well, MH3 will boost Wii in Japan, as you said - wasn't PS3 beating Wii in the Japanese market one of your two 'indicators'?

Look at the sales of NSMB DS, it's obviously one of the key titles to make people buy the platform. I don't even get what you're trying to say here... so NSMB Wii cannot boost Wii sales, because... only people who already know Mario are going to buy the game? EVERYBODY knows Mario, and the prospect of an Old School, 2D, easy to pick up, multiplayer Mario game is going to mobilize millions of people who haven't bought a Wii yet.

Im not just picking a few numbers, here check it out. Wii market share has fallen every year, the Wiis overall sales are down 20% YOY also. The idea of Wii invulnerability is starting to crack. Sure theres noone at this point who can argue successfully that it hasn't performed well. However the idea that the Wii is untouchable is something that cannot be reconciled with recent sales.

Hardware sales were not boosted much (ie only about doubled) by WSR in Japan because there is an upcoming hardware bundle with MH3 and new colour for the Wii. This is not true worldwide so WSR should have more of an effect when it releases in the West

MH3, black wii and hardware bundle will be huge in Japan

WF+ will indeed not have too much impact on hardware, but it can't be discounted either

NSMB:Wii will have a huge hardware boost, especially in Japan. Compare sales of Galaxy to NSMB:DS. It is not true to say that this is mainly for people who own the Wii

Also, the Wii has still not had a price cut. Once it hits the so called magical $200 price point, sales will dramatically increase.