That article is almost convincing, however, with NATAL and all the great exclusives. Even with a pricecut, the PS3 will not catch up. They will come darn close, but I think it's too late for Sony, unless they drop some bombshell between now and then.

Not commenting on this article specifically, but I really have to wonder who pays these "analysts" and why. Most of the time, it seems they pull analysis out of their ass, sometimes with seemingly little basis in reality.

Did any analyst predict the Wii would "win" back in 2006? If so, he'd actually be worth his pay. All the analysts that have consistently predicted the imminent death of the Wii since 2006 are not. Nor would those analysts that from 1996-now have been constantly predicting the imminent death of Apple (though that seems to have mostly stopped.)

Seriously though, I'd love to see a single market analyst that predicted the rise of the Wii. About the only people I think that did were Nintendo fanboys, and most of them probably didn't either (I know I didn't see it coming).

Well, the demographics this gen are very different from last gen, the Wii has proven that. It's harder to predict something when the demographics are changing.

Lol @ Pachter. XD

Pachter dont have a clue..japan is going hand held crazy.
home conmsole sales are way down in japan. and the ps3 and 360 sell's
over in japan dont even make a dent in wide world sales.
and the installed base of the 360 in north america is allmost
as big as sonys world wide installed base

Now that he's pro ps3 he's right.

I figure he is correct because we all know that no one that wants GT5 has purchased a PS3 yet. So figure a 10 million boost when GT5 releases. Figure by mid 2010 the PS3 will be ahead of the 360 because of GT5.

I don't think its gonna happen, but anything is possible i guess.

A little voice told me not post here, but I'm doing it anyway.

I personally feel that there are far too many intangibles to know for sure what's going to happen, but this is Pachter's prediction and the man has the job he does for a reason. I disagree, though. Let's see how things play out THIS holiday first, because next year the motion controls are a coming and we have no idea how people are going to react (even Wii owners).

The man is crazy. The platforms have both been on the market for over two and a half years now (32 months). In that span, the 360 has continued to get further and further ahead. There is no empirical evidence to suggest that the PS3 is ever going to make up the gap between the two. 360 and PS3 will always share 90% of the same gaming library, and 360 will always be cheaper. As a result, it's likely going to sell better.

I don't own either system, and don't particularly care which one sells more, but Pachter's logic is simply baffling.