June 29th, 2009 - "The Wii is already past its prime days", analyst Sebastian Kramer from market research firm NTH* told us, following the news about first estimates of Wii Sports Resort sales in Japan. "Its sales numbers are very disappointing for such a high profile game and the modest increase in hardware sales seems to indicate that the Wii has already peaked. People just aren't as interested in the Wii anymore as they were a year before when sales across the globe were in a much healthier condition."

"Nintendo probably expected a bigger impact of its flagship title for the new Wii Motion Plus accessory, but it looks like most people are already holding out for Sony's and Microsoft's technologically superior motion control devices that are going to be launched next year.", he continued. Nintendo is indeed facing a big problem. If they are going to lose the grip on the casual market, they would have to compete directly on the hardcore front and that's going to be an uphill battle for them as Mr. Kramer confirmed to us.

"Sony and Microsoft have complete control over this segment of the market with many upcoming blockbusters this fall, while on the other hand it isn't even known how the Wii audience would react to games with more substance. Our data has shown that Wii owners are actually only buying games that they want, instead of doing their bit to bring more hardcore games to the Wii. This doesn't bode well for the recently released The Conduit."

Historically Nintendo consoles always had problems to move third party software and the Wii isn't an exception to this rule. "People buy Nintendo systems to play Nintendo games and the few successful third party games are usually casual offerings. The demographics of the Wii are sending a clear message to the publishers that they don't want complex games on the system. It's no surprise that real gamers see the Wii as kind of an amateur console."

So what can and will Nintendo do? "They are probably already working on the WiiHD to get it ready for launch as soon as possible. Nintendo did bet on the wrong horse when they decided to aim for the casual market and abandoned the more profitable hardcore gamers. It may have worked for them in the short term, but casuals have no sense for loyality. Now Nintendo is in a situation where they have to play catch up in order to survive."

What do you think, dear readers? Has the Wii already peaked and is Nintendo doomed? Leave comments in the space below.

*NTH (Now that's hardcore) is a fictive market research firm that collects its data primarily from internet message boards.