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Betting Time: Week 1 for MH3, WSR, DQIX & HW Boosts in Japan

Forums - Sales Discussion - Betting Time: Week 1 for MH3, WSR, DQIX & HW Boosts in Japan

darthdevidem01 said:
@zucas

ROFL, FF8 has the best opening in japan....
_____________

anyway

DQ 9 -- 2.5 Million opening............200K DS Hardware

MH3 -- 750K Opening................... 100K wii Hardware

WSR -- 500K Opening................. 40K Wii Hardware

Yes which is why I said FFVIII.  ROMAN NUMERAL READING FAIL... didn't think they were still that common.



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@Zucas

no I meant ROFL as in, how did that game manage to get the largest opening in Japan ever, it doesn't deserve it



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:
@Zucas

no I meant ROFL as in, how did that game manage to get the largest opening in Japan ever, it doesn't deserve it

Oh haha.  Well that's quite an easy one.  Success of FF7 pushed the brand to glorious heights meaning numerous others were willing to pick the game up on day 1.  Same thing that happened between Halo 1 to Halo 2 in America.



@zucas

yeah that makes good sense actually



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

I don't know, Wii is the most unpredictable machine ver made when it comes to SW and HW. I can't properly make a good guess because there's nothing to base myself on.

If I had to take a wild guess, then:

DQIX
FW 2.2 million/160k HW
LT 4.1 million

WSR
FW 495k/50k HW
LT 2.5 million

MH3
FW 450k/75k HW
LT 1 million


But it could go either way and we might see the Wii games sell so poorly that it could be unimaginable right now, or it could go the other way and we might see monstruous sales that exceed everyone's expectations. I believe final numbers might be lower that what I predict, but we will have to wait a long time before we can check these estimates.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

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Thats why its stickied son



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Good, didn't realize. The other threads like this one fail to succeed in the way the OP expected, because after 2 days no one ever comes back to them.

Either ways I wasn't complaining, but an observation, you seem too optimistic for anything Wii related, even when having early preorders, expecting 5 million for Punch Out was just insane no matter how high preorders were.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

Capcom forecast 2m units of Monster Hunter 3 for the year ending March 2010. Going 500k week one isn't optimistic.

WSR I have at 250k week one. Thats pretty realistic.

DQIX we know is huge.

I never gave lifetime estimates, just week one estimates for this.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

Capcom forecast 2m units of Monster Hunter 3 for the year ending March 2010. Going 500k week one isn't optimistic.

WSR I have at 250k week one. Thats pretty realistic.

DQIX we know is huge.

I never gave lifetime estimates, just week one estimates for this.

Publisher forecasts don't mean anything though. Capcom estimated 500k for Dead Rising on Wi. It looks like it won't even break 200k.



Monster Hunter 3 isn't a dumbed down port of an HD game though, its an improved version of a franchise mostly on PS2/PSP which has a large Japanese following. It won't be as big as the PSP titles, but it should be able to zoom past 700k at least in sell through, as a bare minimum.

I would also like to point out to everyone that Wii Sports Resort has Blue Wii-Mote Controllers releasing alongside it.

Also, I just checked my archive sheet for Preliminary Japanese data...I've been previewing game sales based on the store each Sunday for over two years now. Generally speaking, % of games sold in the store out of total software sold in Japan goes as follows, ranked by where the store has the biggest % of the total:

PS2

PSP

PS3/360

DS

Wii

 

By raw values (i.e. before extrapolating for the store's market share), across all platforms, Dragon Quest IX preorders are higher than any week one total except for one debut in the last 26 months - Monster Hunter Portable 2G on PSP. However, since the store has more PSP market share for software than DS market share for software, I checked the highest DS week one totals. There are only two week one raw totals (again, before extrapolation) over the last 26 months on DS that have reached even half the level of Dragon Quest IX preorders.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu