Monster Hunter 3 isn't a dumbed down port of an HD game though, its an improved version of a franchise mostly on PS2/PSP which has a large Japanese following. It won't be as big as the PSP titles, but it should be able to zoom past 700k at least in sell through, as a bare minimum.
I would also like to point out to everyone that Wii Sports Resort has Blue Wii-Mote Controllers releasing alongside it.
Also, I just checked my archive sheet for Preliminary Japanese data...I've been previewing game sales based on the store each Sunday for over two years now. Generally speaking, % of games sold in the store out of total software sold in Japan goes as follows, ranked by where the store has the biggest % of the total:
By raw values (i.e. before extrapolating for the store's market share), across all platforms, Dragon Quest IX preorders are higher than any week one total except for one debut in the last 26 months - Monster Hunter Portable 2G on PSP. However, since the store has more PSP market share for software than DS market share for software, I checked the highest DS week one totals. There are only two week one raw totals (again, before extrapolation) over the last 26 months on DS that have reached even half the level of Dragon Quest IX preorders.