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Forums - Sales Discussion - Betting Time: Week 1 for MH3, WSR, DQIX & HW Boosts in Japan

SaviorX on 25 July 2009
TheSource said:

It looks like 500,000 to 600,000 week one. Preorders should get to 350,000-400,000 and then it will probably do 50% more week one.

The real trick is going to be predicting Wii hardware as there is a bundle. I guess 18k Wii is the new baseline, so 18,000, then you have probably a 10k rise from the game itself, after that the bundle. Probably isn't even worth bundling a game for a limited time if you don't sell 20k, 30k. This bundle also includes a new Wii color - Black....

I'm thinking Wii will jump to 40,000 to 70,000 for the week but its too early to narrow it down much beyond that.

Dragon Quest IX did 2.35m week one, and the red DSi was launched alongside it, DS jumped from 55k to 141k - an 86,000 spike. Monster Hunter 3 should have 1/4 the debut alongside a new color, so maybe a 21k jump would be in order (especially since Monster Hunter G, with 135k or whatever week one accompanied a 5k bump). Then you throw in the bundle of MH3 + Wii...I'd say 50,000 or 55,000 is fairly likely.

Wii HW- 46k on MH3 week Bundle and title boost

 

476k first week for MH3, with a 142k second week.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

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trestres on 25 July 2009

One thing I've just noticed, the Black Wii is not just bundled, it is a permanent new Wii SKUso now I think it may have some effect after all, I thought it was a special deal like the FFXIII Demo bundles or the Yakuza bundles. Still, the bundle effect will be limited anyways, until bundles run out.



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tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
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Fullfilled Prophecies

kopstudent89 on 27 July 2009

My initial prediction of 580k FW seems reasonable. But i also predicter a hardware boost to 100k. I think i might adjust it to about 60-70k. Though i have a feeling its more like 50k, cuz wii sales are really poor and it's hard to see hardware boosted alot.

I just hope the Wii gets games week in week out to help stabalize wii levels, its unbelievable that its still leading right now without any noticable games really. None of the franchises have come to the wii yet, so MH3 would be a really good start!



johnsobas on 27 July 2009

Looks like MH3 has a 2 day first week



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

kopstudent89 on 29 July 2009

Initial shipment is around 1 million according to Capcom! that\s a whole lot, can we expect more than 500-600 FW sales?



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TheSource on 29 July 2009

I'm expecting 600,000 week one in sellthrough now, based on preorders through July 28. Capcom I think wants to make sure they have enough to meet demand for what should be a strong week two. Its similar to how Square-Enix shipped 3 million DQIXs by Day 3 when sell through was maybe 2.45m.

Unless preorders go up dramatically more than expected tonight (I'll get data through July 29 in about three hours), and then go up alot on July 30-July 31 its gonna be tough for it to do more than 650k.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource on 29 July 2009

Yeah, I'm gonna go on a limb and say 625,000 looks pretty good for week one right now.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Arius Dion on 29 July 2009

Week 1 just being Sat and Sun? So 1m looks like an inevitability with this title, in Japan?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

kopstudent89 on 01 August 2009

You know what, i take that back. 100k wii hardware first week... Hopefully :P



GianCarmen on 02 August 2009

Hey TheSource any early numbers yet for Monster Hunter 3?