Alright fellas, lets get some bets going before the big releases.

Wii Sports Resort: June 25, 2009 in Japan (Wii)***

Dragon Quest IX: July 11, 2009 in Japan (DS)**

Monster Hunter 3: August 1, 2009 in Japan (Wii)*

*has three skus - Black Wii + MH3, White Classic Controller + MH3, MH3 itself

** Edit: No HW bundle, but a new color DSiThere is a HW bundle, note that 290k KH 358/2 week one moved ~35,000 DS systems

*** Blue Wii-Motes and other controllers launch with Wii Sports Resort, and the game includes Motion Plus

Notes:

Wii tends to sell 15k/week in Japan lately

DS tends to sell 35k-40k/week in Japan lately

Dragon Quest games are the most reliable games in Japan. Dragon Quest VII, way back on the PS1 came out when the PS1 had its sixth birthday in late 2000. It sold over 4 million copies in Japan. Dragon Quest VIII on PS2 did 3.7m units after launching on PS2 in 2004, when the system was about 4 and a half years old. The PS1 game sold less week one and more life time than the PS2 game and I think there is consensus that DQVII was better than DQVIII. Preorders for Dragon Quest IX imply an opening at least at 1.6m, and up to 2.3m but its hard for me to narrow that range down as people still have time to preorder it, so I'm just going by where DQV was a month out from release.

Right, so here are my estimates. They will change undoubtedly as we get closer to release for the titles, especially Monster Hunter 3

Wii Sports Resort week one: 250,000.  Wii HW WSR Launch : 55k (much improved, fleshed out sequel to a game with a huge following)

Dragon Quest IX week one: 2,000,000.  DS HW DQIX Launch: 185k (alot of people in Japan only play DQ on game systems)

Monster Hunter 3 week one: 500,000. Wii HW MH3 Launch: 90k (~35k or more baseline from WSR, 20k bundles, 35k game boost)

As one final note, Capcom forecast 2.0m units shipped for MH3 in the year ending March 2010 and that includes a western launch in March 2010 supposedly. So I figure they expect ~1.5m shipped in Japan. To me that means they expect either a huge launch or the title to have legs. Can't see a MHP2G like launch, so I'm going with legs. 500k, 180k, 120k, 80k etc type legs for the game so thats still selling well for when Wii Fit Plus/NSMB Wii/Dec-Jan roll around to further push Wii HW and hold or lift key older titles.

So those are my projections. What are yours?

FYI

Famitsu Estimates: First Shipment/Total Forecast

[NDS] Dragon Quest 9 (Square Enix) FS 2.3M-2.8M / TF 4.0M-5.0M (DQ8 FW 2.24M / LTD 3.56M)
[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) FS 500K / TF 2.5M-3.0M (WS FW 180K / LTD 3.51M)
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) FS 500K-700K / TF 600K-800K (MH2 FW 370K / LTD 570K)
[PS3] Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6 (Konami) FS 80K-100K / TF 120K-180K (PYS5 FW 50k / LTD 100k)

All I can say is Japan is about to get interesting with those big releases coming out over the next 2 months.

But going off things you say I would think sales like this:

Wii Sports Resorts
SW- 300,000
HW- 50,000

Dragon Quest IX
SW- 2.25 million
HW- 200,000

Monster Hunter 3
SW- 650,000
HW- 100,000

I think WSR should have a pretty good following considering how well the first one sold. Should raise hardware a good bit as well as it becomes a new marketing campaign. Monster Hunter 3 should really pump out a good first week number as it's going to be a huge core release for the Wii. Not to mention with the HW bundle, should put in a great week for Wii. WSR will more than likely have better legs, but MH3 may end up being tacked on as one of those "get with the console" kinda things because the series has become so big over there. Similar to what Wii Fit and MK Wii have done recently in the market.

Dragon Quest IX will just be collosal though. It could set the record for the biggest opener in Japanese gaming history which is currently held by Final Fantasy VIII with 2.5 million I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that has been the largest first week. Either way this will push a ton of DS's and really just cloud anything else that releases. Will be quite a week when this comes out.

That one is weird.

Mine:

DQIX: FW= 2.2 million, LT= 4.4 million, HW on launch= 100k

MH3: FW= 450k, LT= 1 million, HW on launch= 80k

WSR: FW= 300k, LT= 2.5 million, HW on launch= 40k

First Week / Lifetime / HW First Week

WSR - 400k 4.0m 90k
MH3 - 800k 3.5m 200k
DQIX - 2.3m 4.5m 120k

I'm personally gonna guess:

DQIX FW = 2.3 million
DQIX LTD = 5.0 million
DS HW FW = 250k

MH3 FW = 750k
MH3 LTD = 1.8 million
Wii HW FW = 160k

WSR FW = 600k
WSR LTD = 3.0 million
Wii HW FW = 70k

Can you link the Famitsu forecasts? I believe you but I'd like to see when they were issued, as the legs of the titles are dependent to some degree on future releases. In other words if they knew Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii, Tales of Grace etc were 2009 releases as the post E3 gaming world does, they may have gone higher (or lower)

WSR: FW= 300K, LT= 2.2 million, HW on launch= 45K

DQIX: FW= 2.2 million, LT= 4.75 million, HW on launch= 150K

DQ9 would be the first game to break 3 millions in two weeks.

MH3: FW= 425K, LT= 1.15 million, HW on launch= 90k

MH3:
FW= 580k
LT=1.8 mil
HW= 100k

DQIX:
FW=2.4 mil
LT=4.4 mil
HW=175k

WSR:
FW=250k
LT=2.5 mil
HW= 35k(i think hardware will be more sustained than just having one big push)

I think people are overestimating MH3 in Japan. I really don't think it will break a million in Japan alone.

My predictions:
MH3: 450k 1st week, 850k total.
Wii Sports: 200k 1st week, 3 million total.
DQIX: 1.9 million 1st week, 4 million total.