I think Super Paper Mario will be to New Super Mario Bros. what Big Brain Academy (DS) was to Brain Training 2. Respectable, certainly a million-seller, but not an incredible runaway success.

It will sell 2 million in America. It's the first big exclusive Wii game so it will get a lot of recognition that it normally wouldn't if it launched later in the systems life. Being a platformer it will also be easier to play than the other two Paper Mario games.

Good analogy. Nintendo may have even put themselves in a position where traditional Nintendo titles do not sell well. Japan seems to be focused on the non-Mario Wii Sports and Wii Play titles. There's no other game that comes close to those million plus sellers at the moment. In the US, it's Wii Sports (as a pack-in), Wii Play, and Zelda. So at least NoA can claim that they're capturing some of their regular fans and some new ones. I'm not familiar with the situation in Europe, but I would expect it to be a mix between the US and Japan since Nintendo hasn't placed very well there in the past couple of console generations. But back to my point, with a much smaller user base than the DS and one who's focused on Wii Sports, game sales of 'traditional' games may be much lower on the Wii. Edit: The game will do best in the US, will do fine (couple of million total), and will not sell Wiis... but they're hard enough to get as it is.

I think people might be setting expectations too high for this game. Neither of the previous Paper Mario games sold even 2 million, and they were released on systems with much larger install bases. The game may be a platformer, but its a very odd platformer without the immediate and broad appeal of a NSMB. And who said Wii Sports/Play? You mean it can match those for a single month? Maybe. But just a single month.

I think people didn't get what the game was all about in the first one....I'm pretty sure a vast majority of those who bought it absolutely loved it though. And I sold my Cube before the second game came out...a lot of people I know sold their Cubes before that game came out, or they hadn't even heard of it...my sister loved the first game, and never heard about the second. I think it has potential to sell a few million.

I agree with vanguardian1 and Erik, I expect this paper mario to do better then the other ones, but it won't go much further than 2.5M worldwide for its lifetime. I the only reason i think it can do pretty good is that there is nothing special out there for the wii, since i think this game is much more niche than casual even being a mario game.

I'd expect it to sell at least 2 million. It comes early in the Wii's cycle of life (unlike the previous two games, which both came out when their respective systems were either losing steam or close to death), it comes out at a time when Wii-owners are starting to look seriously for a new game and it is increasingly being hyped as the Wii's next big killer-app. And while the Paper Mario franchise in itself seemed healthy enough (the GameCube sequel outsold the N64 original), this new emphasis on 2D platforming should attract a whole new group of consumers, who loved the Mario Brothers 2D games, but who didn't know what to make of the Mario RPGs.

BTW is it a direct port of DS's Mario (it looks like)? Or you can find some graphical improvements in this highly anticipated title? Actually I do know that music stayed at C64's Giana Sisters level.

Please find a screenshot of this game you're talking about that is available for the DS ...

It has nothing to do with any DS Mario game. People should entertain the idea that the RPG elements will scare off people looking for a platformer, and the focus on platforming and loss of turn-based fighting will disenfranchise the Paper Mario fanbase, btw, if they're going to say the mix could attract both audiences. Explaining that its a crossbred 2D-platformer/3D-platformer/RPG may not suck in that huge NSMB audience, but just confuse them.