Looking at the Japan charts, Nintendo DS is kicking ass and taking names in the hardware and software charts. At 15.7M, it clearly has its sights on GBA, which has 16.6. At current rate, it should be in the next 7-8 weeks. Which makes it around week 127,

Don't underestimate Dragon Quest IX on the DS...I say the time frame is Dec 2007 to Feb 08. DS will still have huge sales in the holiday months...PS2 will go up, but not by nearly as much

I suppose the real prize would be to top PS2 worldwide. If any system can ever do that. Considering its sales more than 6 years from initial release I see that being very hard to do. DS may get close I think. But it given it's only to 40 million thus far, and now finished 3 years of life cycle, 3 more years...sales increasing? staying the same? I don't see them getting to 120 million.

DS is nowhere near the PS2 in the USA though...I think it could be the best selling videogame system (of any kind) in Japan eventually, but worldwide sales of over 80 million strike me as highly unlikely. Still, anything over 30 or 40 million is a successful hardware system to me.

DS passing PS2 is unlikely in North America, but it looks like it will take a shot at it. DS Lite's are almost as hard to find as Wii's, they've started selling very well overall here late last year, we're just behind Japan's interest in the system, that's all. ;)

Hmmm....I thought the DS had already passed the GBA in Japan. Well either way its a formality. With DQIX hitting DS this year, I think the DS will pass the PS2 in Japan by the end of the year.

I think it's the urban vs suburban difference between US and Japan. WW PS2 is 115M, with 22 in Japan, 33 in Europe, 44 in US and 16M ROW. WW DS is 15.7 in Japan, 10.4 in US and 10.9 in Europe. Let's take ROW out of the equation for now (because lack of comparative data). PS2 WW is 99M DS WW is 37 and is 62M behind. I can see that DS will hit 85M WW in 3 years (Feb 2010) with 29 in Japan, 28 in Europe and 28 in US. I think that the main shortfall will be in the US because of the PSP. In Week 27 of the GBA chart, the difference between GBA sales and DS sales is exactly 7.6M, pretty much exactly the sales of the PSP. So, in the US, Sony has effectively divided the market. Because of this divide, DS will always trail the GBA and hence the PS2. Hence, I focused on Japan instead of WW