Onyxmeth said:
I'm going to comment on the main portion of your argument. It's not that Sony or Microsoft can't expand the market. I'm sure if the right executives were working for them, and the right talent was pushing out exciting ideas, they surely could. I'm basing this on their PR statements, their interviews, etc. They just don't say "market expansion". They all read to me "Hey look! We don't get it!". Natal and dildo wand are just another "I don't get it" products, as I believe you said yourself earlier in different words. If I see their executives speaking the way Iwata was back in 2004, which laid out Nintendo's future mentality in advance, then I will change my opinion of them. So no I can't predict the future. I can only look at trends and make my best guesses based on them. There is no current trend in my eyes that shows Sony or Microsoft in the midst of understanding the Blue Ocean strategy and possibly capitalizing on it. Their new projects, and the silly demos that went along with them, screamed "me too", and you know it. If one or the both of them are just being foolish and really have grander plans going on behind the scenes then good for them. I don't do empty speculation, so without any forthcoming warning from them, I'd rather not wager at the moment that the tide is going to turn. If in fact I get wind of some rumblings from one of the HD camps that they're beginning to get it, I'll be the first to change my tune and say "watch out for this one". |
I just want to augment your point ...
A large portion of Nintendo's success can be attributed to them having developed a very focused strategy on attracting a more "Casual" demographic of gamers than the "Hardcore" demographic, and executing the strategy very well. They were so committed to their strategy that their motion controls were (really) the only reason to upgrade to a Wii being that multimedia functionality and increases in processing power (above the Gamecube) were very modest.
Now I could be wrong, but I suspect that it is easier to maintain the interest of a demographic then it is to capture one away from someone else; unless they are putting little/no effort towards keeping them. I don't have expectations that Sony or Microsoft are willing to commit to a viable strategy to steal these gamers away from Nintendo to the extent that would be necessary, or that Nintendo would make a critical mistake in the next generation which would make them easy to take away.