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The OFFICIAL Feb 2007 NPD Thread

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how long is that for bunkum?



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Top 30 by platform: 360 1. CRACKDOWN - 427,361 2. GEARS OF WAR - 119,232 3. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 - 113,447 4. LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION - 110,628 5. NBA STREET HOMECOURT - 101,710 6. TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS - 91,356 7. FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 3 - 61,398 8. BATTLESTATIONS: MIDWAY - 50,310 9. NBA 2K7 - 46,093 10. CALL OF DUTY 3 - 40,259 11. ELDER SCROLLS IV: OBLIVION - 37,060 12. T. CLANCYS GHOST RECON: ADVANCED W - 35,014 13. MADDEN NFL 07 - 31,946 14. NCAA MARCH MADNESS 07 - 30,209 15. TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 07 - 28,232 16. FUZION FRENZY 2 - 27,751 17. WINNING ELEVEN: PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2007 - 27,684 18. SAINTS ROW - 25,568 19. NBA LIVE 07 - 24,905 20. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 24,363 21. WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW 2007 - 23,249 22. FIFA SOCCER 07 - 19,340 23. VIVA PINATA - 18,428 24. F.E.A.R. - 18,166 25. MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE - 18,163 26. DEAD RISING - 18,136 27. DDR UNIVERSE BUNDLE - 17,621 28. TONY HAWK'S PROJECT 8 - 16,983 29. NHL 07 - 15,606 30. BURNOUT REVENGE - 15,521 PS3 1. RESISTANCE: FALL OF MAN - 70,505 2. VIRTUA FIGHTER 5 - 53,219 3. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 - 32,181 4. MADDEN NFL 07 - 30,931 5. SONIC THE HEDGEHOG - 30,711 6. FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 3 - 26,670 7. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 23,303 8. CALL OF DUTY 3 - 22,744 9. NBA 2K7 - 20,411 10. TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 07 - 18,254 11. MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE - 17,692 12. FORMULA ONE CHAMPIONSHIP EDITION - 17,612 13. NBA 07 - 16,510 14. BLAZING ANGELS: SQUADRONS OF WWII - 16,412 15. RIDGE RACER 7 - 10,754 16. TONY HAWK'S PROJECT 8 - 10,648 17. FULL AUTO 2: BATTLELINES - 10,021 18. UNTOLD LEGENDS: DARK KINGDOM - 8,165 19. GENJI 2: DAYS OF THE BLADE - 7,814 20. NHL 2K7 - 7,345 21. MOBILE SUITE GUNDAM: CROSSFIRE - 3,154 WII 1. PLAY W/ REMOTE - 370,592 2. LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - 130,063 3. WARIOWARE: SMOOTH MOVES - 108,888 4. SONIC AND THE SECRET RINGS - 83,430 5. RAYMAN RAVING RABBIDS - 60,450 6. MADDEN NFL 07 - 31,749 7. RED STEEL - 25,853 8. CALL OF DUTY 3 - 24,789 9. SUPER MONKEY BALL: BANANA BLITZ - 23,878 10. EXCITE TRUCK - 22,427 11. RAPALA TROPHIES: PRO TOURNAMENT FISHING - 22,418 12. MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE - 19,475 13. SSX BLUR - 18,687 14. TRAUMA CENTER: SECOND OPINION - 17,944 15. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 16,563 16. TONY HAWK'S DOWNHILL JAM - 13,593 17. DRAGON BALL Z: BUDOKAI TENKAICHI 2 - 12,799 18. ELEBITS - 12,695 19. RAMPAGE: TOTAL DESTRUCTION - 12,583 20. GT PRO SERIES - 11,202 21. MONSTER 4X4: WORLD CIRCUIT - 10,776 22. SUPER SWING GOLF - 9,943 23. METAL SLUG ANTHOLOGY - 8,592 24. CARS - 7,552 25. TOM CLANCY'S SPLINTER CELL: DOUBLE AGENT - 6,950 26. AVATAR: THE LAST AIRBENDER - 5,309 27. SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS: CREATURE FROM THE - 5,251 28. FAR CRY: VENGEANCE - 5,028 29. HAPPY FEET - 4,353 30. WORLD SERIES OF POKER : TOURNAMENT OF CH - 3,713 31. ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN - 3,514 32. OPEN SEASON - 3,415 33. BARNYARD - 2,561 34. DISNEY'S CHICKEN LITTLE: ACE IN ACTION - 2,380 35. ANT BULLY - 2,157 36. THE GRIM ADVENTURES OF BILLY & MANDY - 2,156 NDS 1. DIDDY KONG RACING - 262,031 2. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS - 93,948 3. MARIO KART - 71,428 4. BRAIN AGE: TRAIN YOUR BRAIN IN MINUTES A - 64,165 5. KIRBY SQUEAK SQUAD - 59,610 6. NINTENDOGS: DALMATIAN & FRIENDS - 48,635 7. YOSHI'S ISLAND 2 - 46,752 8. ANIMAL CROSSING: WILD WORLD - 38,243 9. BIG BRAIN ACADEMY - 37,357 10. NINTENDOGS: DACHSHUND & FRIENDS - 37,322 11. MARIO HOOPS 3 ON 3 - 35,134 12. COOKING MAMA - 33,487 13. NINTENDOGS: LABRADOR & FRIENDS - 33,053 14. POKEMON RANGER - 31,964 15. MARIO VS DONKEY KONG 2: MARCH OF THE MIN - 31,232 16. SUPER MARIO 64 DS - 30,556 17. FINAL FANTASY III - 30,417 18. HANNAH MONTANA - 30,403 19. PAWS & CLAWS PET VET - 30,239 20. NINTENDOGS: CHIHUAHUA & FRIENDS - 26,847 21. THE SIMS 2: PETS - 25,230 22. HORSEZ - 23,192 23. POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: BLUE RESCUE TEA - 22,838 24. CATZ - 22,796 25. LUNAR KNIGHTS - 22,109 26. SONIC RUSH - 21,717 27. ZOO TYCOON - 20,704 28. YU-GI-OH! GX SPIRIT CALLER - 19,337 29. LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY - 18,178 30. DOGZ - 16,219 GBA 1. FINAL FANTASY VI ADVANCE - 64,459 2. POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP - 42,512 3. SUPER MARIO ADVANCE 2 - 38,305 4. MARIO KART: CIRCUIT - 37,045 5. POKEMON LEAFGRN W/ADP - 36,513 6. SUPER MARIO ADVANCE - 29,520 7. POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: RED RESCUE TEAM - 24,790 8. POKEMON EMERALD - 24,574 9. CARS - 16,669 10. SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS: CREATURE FROM THE - 16,428 11. CRASH/SPYRO SUPERPACK - 16,322 12. MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 - 15,529 13. MY LITTLE PONY: CRYSTAL PRINCESS RUNAWAY - 15,080 14. LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY - 14,359 15. DISNEY PRINCESS - 11,972 16. HOT WHEELS STUNT CHALLENGE/WORLD RACE - 11,702 17. DISNEY'S KIM POSSIBLE 3 - 11,470 18. SONIC THE HEDGEHOG - 11,014 19. SW: FLIGHT OF FALCON - 10,706 20. SCOOBY-DOO 2:MONSTERS - 10,138 21. THE SIMS 2: PETS - 10,096 22. FASHION DOGZ - 9,421 23. PAC-MAN COLLECTION - 9,149 24. HELLO KITTY: HAPPY PARTY PA - 9,115 25. NICKTOONS: BATTLE FOR VOLCANO ISLAND - 9,019 26. THE SUITE LIFE OF ZACK & CODY: TIPTON TR - 8,704 27. ZELDA: LINK TO PAST - 8,412 28. HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN - 8,172 29. HAPPY FEET - 7,985 30. TOP GUN:FIRESTORM ADV - 7,942 PSP 1. RATCHET & CLANK: SIZE MATTERS - 55,163 2. GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY STORIES - 43,251 3. MADDEN NFL 07 - 36,124 4. GTA: LIBERTY CITY STORIES - 33,793 5. NBA LIVE 07 - 30,499 6. NEED SPEED: MOST WANTED - 25,755 7. MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB EDITION - 22,490 8. GHOST RIDER - 22,285 9. MEDAL OF HONOR: HEROES - 22,076 10. SOCOM: U.S. NAVY SEALS FIRETEAM BRAVO 2 - 21,822 11. THE WARRIORS - 18,912 12. METAL GEAR SOLID: PORTABLE OPS - 18,748 13. NEED FOR SPEED CARBON: OWN THE CITY - 17,799 14. MLB '07: THE SHOW - 17,640 15. SONIC RIVALS - 16,108 16. TONY HAWK'S PROJECT 8 - 15,426 17. WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007 - 15,010 18. FIFA SOCCER 07 - 14,317 19. FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 3 - 13,884 20. STAR WARS: BATTLEFRONT II - 13,841 21. BURNOUT LEGENDS - 13,046 22. WWE SMACKDOWN! VS RAW 2006 - 12,855 23. MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE - 11,168 24. MORTAL KOMBAT: UNCHAINED - 10,780 25. SOCOM: FIRETEAM BRAVO - 10,232 26. NBA 07 - 9,997 27. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHE - 9,992 28. KILLZONE: LIBERATION - 9,789 29. ACE COMBAT X: SKIES OF DECEPTION - 9,771 30. SID MEIER'S PIRATES! - 9,687 PS2 1. GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - 129,735 2. MLB '07: THE SHOW - 70,209 3. MADDEN NFL 07 - 66,273 4. GOD OF WAR - 65,572 5. MORTAL KOMBAT: ARMAGEDDON - 62,628 6. FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 3 - 61,269 7. NCAA MARCH MADNESS 07 - 57,007 8. GHOST RIDER - 56,727 9. GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS - 56,486 10. NBA 2K7 - 55,737 11. NBA LIVE 07 - 52,516 12. MVP 07 NCAA BASEBALL - 46,431 13. GUITAR HERO - 45,817 14. WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW 2007 - 42,373 15. FIFA SOCCER 07 - 41,732 16. LEGO STAR WARS - 38,990 17. ROGUE GALAXY - 38,955 18. MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB ED REMIX - 37,039 19. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 36,145 20. BLACK - 35,797 21. STAR WARS: BATTLEFRONT II - 35,615 22. KARAOKE REVOLUTION AMERICAN IDOL W/ MICR - 35,281 23. GUITAR HERO 2 - 35,131 24. RESIDENT EVIL 4 - 34,145 25. TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 07 - 33,542 26. FINAL FANTASY XII - 32,588 27. NEED SPEED: MOST WANTED - 31,537 28. DDR SUPER NOVA BUNDLE - 31,306 29. NASCAR 07 - 30,928 30. LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY - 30,723 GCN 1. LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - 59,250 2. LEGO STAR WARS - 27,787 3. SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE - 21,077 4. NARUTO: CLASH OF NINJA 2 - 20,389 5. MARIO KART: DOUBLE - 20,316 6. PAPER MARIO: THOUSAND - 18,454 7. SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE - 16,910 8. HAPPY FEET - 13,750 9. CARS - 13,167 10. SUPER MARIO STRIKERS - 12,614 11. LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY - 12,588 12. SONIC RIDERS - 12,128 13. SHREK: SMASH N' CRASH RACING - 11,734 14. RAMPAGE: TOTAL DESTRUCTION - 11,517 15. MADDEN NFL 07 - 11,133 16. MARIO SUPERSTAR BASEBALL - 10,579 17. SPONGEBOB: LIGHTS CAMERA - 10,101 18. DK: JUNGLE W/BONGOS - 10,089 19. OVER THE HEDGE - 10,054 20. SHADOW THE HEDGEHOG - 9,500 21. BATTALION WARS - 9,034 22. NICKTOONS: BATTLE FOR VOLCANO ISLAND - 8,750 23. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 8,621 24. NEED SPEED: MOST WANTED - 8,440 25. ANIMAL CROSSING - 8,184 26. STAR FOX: ASSAULT - 7,842 27. SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS: CREATURE FROM THE - 7,799 28. FLUSHED AWAY - 7,329 29. NARUTO: CLASH OF NINJA - 7,309 30. LEGEND OF SPYRO: A NEW BEGINNING - 7,305 XBX 1. HALO 2 - 49,774 2. MORTAL KOMBAT: ARMAGEDDON - 22,069 3. MADDEN NFL 07 - 16,768 4. NBA LIVE 07 - 13,922 5. LEGO STAR WARS - 13,284 6. NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON - 12,352 7. GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS - 11,158 8. HALO - 10,648 9. BLACK - 10,576 10. FABLE - 10,538 11. TRUE CRIME: NEW YORK CITY - 10,441 12. SCARFACE: THE WORLD IS YOURS - 10,082 13. CALL OF DUTY 3 - 9,001 14. STAR WARS: BATTLEFRONT II - 8,472 15. FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 3 - 8,182 16. NEED SPEED: MOST WANTED - 7,593 17. TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 07 - 7,574 18. FIFA SOCCER 07 - 7,410 19. LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY - 7,088 20. KING KONG: PETER JACKSON'S - 7,059 21. NBA 2K7 - 6,862 22. CARS - 6,837 23. MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE - 6,271 24. THE GODFATHER: THE GAME - 6,249 25. NASCAR 07 - 6,106 26. THRILLVILLE - 5,907 27. T.CLANCYS RAINBOW SIX:LCKDWN - 5,838 28. HALF-LIFE 2 - 5,818 29. CALL OF DUTY 2: BIG RED ONE - 5,700 30. 50 CENT: BULLETPROOF - 5,662



Thanks.



It really does seems like the 360 can only sell one massive title a month, while the rest languish. When adjusted for marketshare cross-platform games actually seem to be doing better on the Wii!



The PS3 seems to be following the footsteps of the PSP - except that it is doing even worse. Look at the software sales figures for both machines. Without a "true" software differentiator (i.e. being able to do something unique, cool & different), there just isn't enough reason to buy the "more" expensive piece of hardware. And when its the cheaper hardware that does "more"... you can guess the result. Imagine what the sales chart would look like if Nintendo was able to ship 2-3x as many DS/Wii units...



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Based on what I see for the software: - Software sells best on 360, worst on PS3, Wii in the middle in terms of raw data. - Adjusted for USA userbase though (rounded to nearest .25 million), Wii software sells better. Look at what I call 5% level hits - games that appeal to 1/20 people who own the console, it is a good way to assess buying patterns regardless of userbase. For Wii, 5% of 2 million = 100,000 level hits - Wii has 3 in February. 5% of 5 million = 250,000 level hits - 360 has 1 in Febraury. PS3 - 5% of 1 million = 50,000 level hits, PS3 has 2 in February. With Wii having the most rapidly growing software and hardware, it seems developers will have no choice to support it in the future, as they make other games for 360 and PS3 (because 360 sells more raw software right now, but when PS3's userbase gets higher, software may sell better on PS3 then on 360). My theory is one 5% level game per month is necessary to keep hardware sales steady. To improve hardware you a 10% game (hit), 20% game (huge hit), 50%+ game (generation defining hit). The aforementioned categories are for when a system is still under 20 million units sold. No game ever really sells to 50% of the userbase (anymore). By 50 million the level drops to 30% at best for exceptional games. For 100 million the level drops to about 17% (1/6). In March PS3 will have Motorstorm, which will sell over 50,000 to keep hardware about the same. Wii will have 3-6 of the following sell over 100,000 to keep hardware about the same - Tiger Woods, SSX Blur, Sonic, Wario Ware, Zelda, Wii Play, TMNT, Godfather. I would guess Tiger Woods, Wii Play, Zelda and Wario Ware. 360 will have 1-2 of the following sell over 250,000 - Crackdown, Def Jam, MLB 2K7. The games with 10% potential this year are: Super Paper Mario Heavenly Sword Big Brain Academy Devil May Cry 4 (360) Assassin's Creed Lost Odyessey Project Gotham Racing 4 Bio Shock Blue Dragon Dragon Quest Swords Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles (Wii) Games with 20% potential this year: Metroid Prime 3 Mass Effect DDR Wii Metal Gear Solid 4 My Sims Forza 2 Guitar Hero 2 Madden Wii Health Wii Music Games with 50% potential this year Halo 3 GTA IV Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said: Based on what I see for the software: The games with 10% potential this year are: Super Paper Mario Heavenly Sword Big Brain Academy Devil May Cry 4 (360) Assassin's Creed Lost Odyessey Project Gotham Racing 4 Bio Shock Blue Dragon Dragon Quest Swords (has this even been confirmed for NA localization?) Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles (Wii) (once this is made public, your estimates will rise I assure you) Games with 20% potential this year: Metroid Prime 3 Mass Effect DDR Wii Metal Gear Solid 4 My Sims Forza 2 Guitar Hero 2 Madden Wii Health Wii Music Games with 50% potential this year Halo 3 GTA IV Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl
Other than what I have boldfaced, (as I believe these titles will exceed your estimations) I agree with your assesments & formula. With the additional exception of TW'07 Wii making it into the 10% bracket. Your 50% potential is spot-on.



"The things we touch have no permanence."