I'm seing right now the charts comparing the launches:
X360 Nov 05 357,250 357,250
X360 Dec 05 303,500 660,750
X360 Jan 06 269,000 929,750
X360 Feb 06 187,250 1,117,000
PS3 Nov 06 222,250 222,250
PS3 Dec 06 537,750 760,000
PS3 Jan 07 275,500 1,035,500
If you forget about december and the problems MS had the numbers are oddly very similar. You have to count a % of growth for the industry. And strangely enough if we follow the predictions february is going to be probably in a 190k range for the PS3.
But then again we have to count that to close the gap the other has to do it worse than you, and MS is already stablished (we can discuss if they needed more time than Sony with the PS3, but the PS3 already is experiencing its birth within a next generation on its peak). That is irrelevant, at the end what matters is if you can sell more than your competitor. MS had the guts to deliver one year prior to Sony so they have that advantage.
I'm looking through future realease dates on IGN and I'm not seeing games on PS3 that are going to drive sales over the 360 (I can't see multiplatform as a fact in favor of PS3, the contrary even. The 360 is less expensive). And in March the 360 has C&C, then goes Forza2, then Bioshock, Blue Dragon (a sure bet), Mass Effect, Too Human, Halo 3, Lost Oddysey... it seems as if MS had taken advantage of that 1 year and planned all his releases in 2007 to weaken the PS3 sales in. And they even force games to be delayed till 2008 like Alan Wake or Halo Wars.
NA seems MS territory for me.
Forza2 is scheduled for May, Bioshock says "Spring 2007" Blue Dragon is in August, Mass Effect is not coming out in May. These games are being pushed back a lot.
I don't see many system sellers for PS3, Motorstorm should sell systems in March. But they do have good titles coming out in Oblivion, F.E.A.R., Armored Core 4, Enchanted Arms, MLB the Show 2007, Spiderman 3, Singstar, Ninja Guidan Sigma, Hot Shots Golf, Stuntman, Coded Arms Assualt, MGS4, DMC4, Killzone, Winning Eleven, Guitar Hero PS3, Heavenly Sword, White Knight Story, Lair, GT5, FFXIII, FFXIII VS.
I see plenty of good titles and some good exclusives.
If you ignore the multiplatform games of that list and the games that are going to release in 2008... that pretty much changes the equation.
I can't see the PS3 closing the gap within this year, I see the 360 opening the gap in NA and the more momentum they gain the more difficult it's going to be for Sony to catch up. Add to that strategy a possible price cut on the right moment and you have a very powerful system...
And by the way, I forgot about Project Gotham 4 or Shadowrun, two more 1st party titles for this year.