Sales-wise this generation is already over. Nintendo can at anytime repeat Sony's speech during E3 2002: 'The console wars is over and Sony won', this time switching Sony for Nintendo. The war now is for third-party support and gaming quality.

Egg-zactly.

A post I made on another forum:

I think it's funny how so many journalists expect Nintendo to feel threatened by Sony and Microsoft's motion controllers. As if Nintendo wasn't way ahead of the game with successfully deployed products and full software support while Sony and Microsoft scramble to catch up.

Why would Nintendo break a sweat? They've been running the race for three years while Sony and Microsoft are just now warming up at the starting line.

Obviously, Nintendo can counter them by releasing more and more games compatible with WM+ before the Natal is born (pun intended)!

Let's say Natal launches at the end of next year. In terms of raw numbers, what will the install bases be?
More importantly, what will the price of Natal and launch line up be? For all the buzz now, come Q4 2010, Microsoft could be up against a Nintendo Wii install base sailing passed 90 million, perhaps even 100 million. Combine that with the Motion Plus install base, and the possibility of Zelda Wii launching around the time of Natal. Of course, this is all very speculative, but imagine if Natal's line up comes up against WM+ Zelda. If there is a response from Nintendo, that's the response I'd expect. As well as a new, unforeseen project aimed at whatever other blue ocean Nintendo believes exists.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying Zelda Wii will launch next year or that it will completely nulify Natal. I'm just saying the scenario could take place. Natal launches with a bunch of promising, flawed games and some garbage-like all new products. Nintendo launch Zelda Wii, which almost perfectly utilises 1:1 motion control in a genuinely classic game (if any game does this, I think it will be Zelda Wii).How impressive will Natal look then, especially if it launches with a Wii Sports or Wii Fit clone?

Best to bear in mind this could all be rubbish!

Well, Natal is addressing the issue of motion control, not the issue of games like Wii Sports and Wii Plays that are extremely popular. It's also not addressing the issue of the bathroom scales that are likely to oversell the PS3 and they are not addressing the plethora of successful Nintendo titles. Oh yeah, they are not addressing the fact that the mainstream have no idea about the Xbox 360, let alone Natal. Also, those that know about it still have the perception that "video games = for kids" that the Wii shattered.

Nothing. The Wii will start having negative sales as consumers rush to exchange the wiis for xboxes.

Well, if it was Sony and Microsoft PR in May 2006, then that means the disruption that occurred was expected. 

We've already seen the mainstream Western media hyping natal like no other comparable product in history. And almost all of the western videogame press says Microsoft won E3 despite the loack of new high quality exclusive software at Microsoft's show and largely because of Natal. If shows like CBS Evening News, Oprah, or Ellen start saying Natal is the best thing ever, that's sure to have some kind of effect.

Interesting point of fact: six hours after the announcement, my local jazz station (only jazz station in Ontario, don'tcha know) was talking about the Wii Vitality Sensor in its news segment.

That was kind of bizarre.

It raises the expectations. If Microsoft delivers on most of their promises, it will help drive adoption. If MS doesn't, Natal will be joked about for years.