No I think you are playing it to save.
100 Million given even without natal. I dont think someone really doubts that. I looked on the numbers and I guess there will be atleast a 250% Bumb after Natal. If we count in that the boost goest atleast twice as long as the Nintendo Hype we will see different numbers here.
Just look:
First 4 years aprroximatly 43 Million.
Then comes Natal (250%)
Such a highly succesful console will atleast double the lifespan of the PS2.
So lets say atleast another 12 high selling years. With the current pace it would be 3*43= 129 Million*2,5 (natal factor)= 323 Million (after Natal) Plus the current Number 38.5 Million= 361.5 Million LTD for Xbox360.
It will not only crush the PS3 easily (through move it wont be as bad but still it will hurt)
But also wipe the floor with the Wii. After Xbox360 shows its real strength in this christmas and triples Wiis best both companys will surrender in the first 12 Month.
After all is said and done Sony will meet with Nintendo and both CEOS will fly to america and apologize to MS for not surrendering when MS entered the market.