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TW 07 -- System Seller?

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Sorry I was probably a little harsh on SMG, MP3 not so much. MP3 will probably be a million seller, and SMG I also agree will probably go above 2 million. But a huge number of these sales will come from the current install base. I don't think Gears or TP are anomalies, so yes perhaps I should give SMG a little bit more credit... I just don't know if the planets and the different gravity and small worlds is going to be a huge as people think... I don't know if it's too complicated for most people that are dissuaded by complicated games. What do I think will push Wii into the stratusphere for system sales? Is a high def (480p is enough) sprite based (they can be 3D sprites if they need be) 2D Mario game. They should call it 'NEW' Super Mario World with awesome (even pre-rendered would be acceptable) backgrounds. Paper Mario doesn't count.



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sieanr said: John Lucas, you're posts are some of the best here. Just thought you should know. Oh, and you're awesome
Thank you sieanr. It's nice when your words are appreciated. John Lucas



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OriGin said: Sorry I was probably a little harsh on SMG, MP3 not so much. MP3 will probably be a million seller, and SMG I also agree will probably go above 2 million. But a huge number of these sales will come from the current install base. I don't think Gears or TP are anomalies, so yes perhaps I should give SMG a little bit more credit... I just don't know if the planets and the different gravity and small worlds is going to be a huge as people think... I don't know if it's too complicated for most people that are dissuaded by complicated games. What do I think will push Wii into the stratusphere for system sales? Is a high def (480p is enough) sprite based (they can be 3D sprites if they need be) 2D Mario game. They should call it 'NEW' Super Mario World with awesome (even pre-rendered would be acceptable) backgrounds. Paper Mario doesn't count.
You're being REALLY harsh on SMG. Super Mario 64 sold 11.89 Million world wide. Even Sunshine sold 5.89 Mil world wide. So far, Wii is kicking both their asses in terms of sales*. As for the game itself, the videos show that there are large worlds in the game. There's even swimming levels. So far we've only seen a small taste of what the game has to offer. The only thing we know is that each glimpse we get is more amazing than the last. As for MP. the first one sold 2.77 ww and the second game 1.24. Once again, the Wii is going to leave the Cube in the dumpster. But also, Prime 3 has really gotten attention as a major Wiimote FPS. It's going to get the attention and focus that the others didn't. I think it'll easily break a mil in NA and in Europe. So... ya. * technically the Wii is 23,000 behind the 64 at this point in the game. But the 64 released earlier in the year, able to get stock up and sell over 800,000 in December. If you compare their first Jan and feb sales, you'll notice how the supply constrained Wii is blowing the in stock 64 out of the water.



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Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

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Well, the fact that SMG and MP3 will have a bigger audience and in turn more sales due to more system sales doesn't really make their case as system sellers beyond their predecessors, now does it? SMG will be a killer app though. I don't know if it will do 10 million in sales, but its certainly possible. SMB, SMB2 (US and Jap combined), SMB3, SML, SML2, SMW, SM64 and soon NSMB all made it to 8 digits. SMS is the only main series Mario game to miss that mark.



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Getting back on topic to Tiger Woods '07 Wii version.... http://www.gamevideos.com/video/id/10055



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OriGin said: *sigh* Unfortunately only a handful of people on here understand what the hell is going on in this market right now. SMG and MP3 aren't huge system sellers... no way hosei. SS:BB perhaps yes... but not as much as you consider, the market has changed so drastically in the last couple of years. These kind of games are only going to serve to cater for the hardcore market, but most likely won't be purchased by a lot of the casuals as they are too complicated. Impossible to make a lot of hardcore gamers understand this because all they see is the opinion of JUST their peers on internet forums and blogs.
I know exactly what you mean here OriGin. I think what's happening is when you're saying Metroid Prime 3 & Super Mario Galaxy won't be huge system sellers they think that you're saying those games will bomb on the market. That they won't sell any units. I think that's where the confusion is coming from. No these games will sell big no doubt but OriGin is talking about these games being able to persuade the newer incoming audience to want to buy and in that case he is correct. The audience that exists will buy Metroid Prime 3 & Super Mario Galaxy. We're already in the club so to speak. They know how to push our buttons. Zelda: Twlight Princess alone shows us OriGin's point. Look at the Japanese sales charts from week to week on Zelda often considered the #2, the left to Mario's right of Nintendo's franchises: Zelda: TW — Week to Week (Japan) It has only sold 435,250 units! And it's been out since launch there at December the 2nd last year! It is #46 on the charts at current standings of week ending March 11, 2007. It only moved 6,000 units this week & 7,000 units the week before that & 9,250 units the week before that. On the Americas charts it has sold a total of 1,419,250 by end of February 2007. 4 months on the charts. Zelda TW- Americas chart (check for February 2007) Zelda sells to those who have been entrenched in gaming world for years and years like us but it DOESN'T sell to those who would be coming in fresh to gaming. The people that are gonna REALLY make the sales are the NEW audience. Wii Sports & Wii Play move units to the "new breed". In one months time on the Americas charts Wii Play is close to selling 1/4 of what what Zelda sold in 4 months time. And people are surprised by this. They shouldn't be. The game has changed. You are in the midst of Nintendo's Revolution. A Revolution is a whole scale change on how things are done. I'm guilty of it myself. My idea of system sellers revolve around the IPs I grew up with and which were famous in years past for being the lynchpin of systems. Mario & Link will never die of course but the REAL system sellers are products that are unpredictable to our eyes. To us Tiger Woods 07 on Wii just seems like another EA cashcow capitalizing on a famous celebrity's product endorsement. And it WAS BEFORE. But that's before the Wiimote got involved. With the Wiimote things have changed. The Wiimote actually made me interested in Madden & I don't even like football much less most realistic sports games (baseball is the only one I dig). If the interface isn't too complicated Tiger Woods will be a smash on Wii. Wii Sports introduces the newcomers to the other titles. Do you understand that Bowling sims are now system sellers? Do you understand that Boxing sims will have a whole new power thanks to the Wii? Do you know that Pool games, Billiards are about to be monster sellers thanks to the Billiards game in Wii Play? Golf sims as well. What about Bassmaster Tournament Wii? Deer Hunter Wii? I don't quite agree with OriGin that Super Mario Galaxy won't be a system seller. It WILL make an impact on moving Wiis. It sells to the traditional buyers and may just interest the newer buyers though not on the level that Wii Sports did. But Metroid Prime 3 does not appeal to anyone but us. They will be high-quality as always but as for lasting system sellers its time is limited. What I think OriGin is talking about is LASTING system sellers on the level of Nintendogs & Brain Training not flash-in-the-pan system sellers that start explosively big like Monster Hunter Freedom 2 on PSP then fizzle out in the coming weeks. Games that don't sell systems in a burst but more rather in a slow burn. Thinking back on it I can't say he's totally off on Super Mario Galaxy not being on this level. Super Mario Galaxy will sell big and will move many units but for how long? I DO think much longer than any ol' school title we've seen. He may have a point there now that I think about it. Our idea of system sellers has to expand. We have games that are big monsters and will definitely make a big splash but what we REALLY need to look at are those games that will consistently encourage people to buy a game console over long periods of time. And these games may not be as obvious to point out. A system with traditional blockbusters and sleeper hits with sure & steady modest sellers makes a recipe for a console domination. What are people gonna say when Bob Ross Painting comes out on the Wii? (they gotta make this happen!) Will Animal Crossing Wii outdo its Nintendo icon siblings? What unforeseen title will become the new icon? Keep your eyes peeled & your mind open. This gameworld is changing & we need to be aware of where it's heading. John Lucas



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oh no if that happends i know my co worker has been holding off on getting a wii till a good golf game has come out and if this game comes out then that is a seller



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Sweet video. Some observations. 1. "Wii are in the game!". It really was a good naming move, as the slogans keep on coming. 2. EA is really pushing this one, and their Wii ventures as a whole. I don't see them giving as much push to their other console offerings 3. I think this game really is going to be a system seller. Just in a different way. It'll be the kind of game that a lot of people will consider an essential part of their Wii game library. Over time, as the console becomes available, people who aren't sure whether or not to get it will probably look at the games, and this is one of those games that'll help push people in to the "buy" category. 4. Tiger Woods played Zelda. That's awesome.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

Stay on topic people, I just checked and GoW2 is ranked #1 not TW or Wii.



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Diomedes1976 said: johnlucas said: Lingyis said: I checked Tiger Woods 07 on Amazon and as of Mar 14 2:35 Pacific Time it's ranked at #6. The Wii is ranked #1, but a few days back it was at #5. The lowest price of the console has also gone up from around $325 (if I remember correctly) to $375. On eBay the price is closer to $320 (albeit shipping at a ripoff $30), but it's the difference that's interesting. This is scant data, but it does make you wonder if TW 07 actually moves systems. Amazon has not restocked Wii in the last few days, so discount that as a factor. For comparison's sake, #2 Wii Play, #3 GoW2, #7 PS2, #9 Ghost Recon. I don't know, but TW 07 at #6 is rather surprising to me. Also surprising is that Wii Play is still outselling GoW2--but GoW2 should certainly both Wii the console and Wii Play, probably only because the way ranking is done that hasn't been reflected yet. We'll see in a few days. You shouldn't be surprised. People have become insulated as to what makes a system seller. Tunnel-vision. We've played certain types of games so long that we think we know what moves the systems. Check out an article from this guy named Sean Malstrom from TheWiikly.com Theory of Cycles He explains all the gaming generations and their views on a higher plane than just mere age. I find his theory to be correct because one who identifies with a particular era of gaming can't understand when a new era emerges. Pac-Man was once seen as a non-game as well just like Super Mario Bros. I'm not surprised Wii Play is outselling God of War 2 in the least. Wii Play appeals to broader groups than God of War 2 ever will. You should read that guy's stuff. You may not like the partisan nature of the site he writes on but he's telling you knowledgeable stuff based on a historical perspective that even precedes Nintendo's entry into the business. Tabletop Cycle Arcade Cycle Cinema Cycle and this emerging Social/Interface Cycle The movie-styled games as the preeminent in gaming are fading. That's what that article is saying. I was born in 1976 & first saw my first videogame Pac-Man in the arcades in 1980 when I was 4. My home generation fits inside the Arcade Cycle & games before this cycle were not as enjoyable to me as the ones FROM this cycle. Text-based computer gaming would never appeal to me in the same way as Donkey Kong did in the arcades. The same with the Playstation generation not being able to appreciate games without a story and cutscenes. Games with hard challenges & reliance on reflexes like those of the arcade era. Those who grew up in the 1990's & early 2000's look at games from my era as old hat. Soon the emerging audiences will see the movie-styled long-involved cutscene type of games as old hat just the same. People myself included sometimes don't have time to play games for long periods of time. We got full-time jobs & responsibilities now. Shorter briefer quick-to-get-into-and-out-of type of games are gonna become more the norm. Also games that rely heavily on the social interaction aspect. Accessibility & Brevity are the key words now. This is one reason why the HD argument will never pan out. It's the relic of the Cinema Era. Nobody of substantial numbers cares about that. I've witnessed 43-year old & 52-year old male cousins and 49-year old male co-workers and 40-year old & 49-year old female friends of mine express desire or interest in getting a Wii. None of these people EVER cared about videogames before but all of a sudden they want this system. And the type of games that interest them are Wii Sports & Wii Play and stuff of that ilk not God of War 2 and Resistance: Fall of Man and Halo 3 and Gears of War and Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Metroid Prime 3. You can write these audiences off as "casual" (whatever that means) if you wanna. This is the future of where this industry is going. Games of older cycles may still sell and will be made but they won't be the preeminent for much longer. They said Revolution and that's exactly what they meant. And I don't think people have really wrapped their heads around this yet. The industry & its rules are changing right before your very eyes and Nintendo is leading the way all the while collecting bank. John Lucas AS tou put it this "revolution " spells doom for games with deep storytelling ,great artistic values and complex gameplay ....so it means doom for our beloved industry as we have know it .
the industry didnt die wiht the original nintendo did it? it had lots of short easy games at the beginning. look at duck hunt it sold for many many years and was a classic.



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