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Erik rants. Today: "The PS3 is not the N64!"

Forums - Sales Discussion - Erik rants. Today: "The PS3 is not the N64!"

Diomedes1976 said: But do you REALLY believe the X360 will beat the PS3 in Europe ?
Its a possibility ... The GDP per Capita (adjusted for cost of living) is much lower in most european countries than it is in North America ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita ) which means that on average Europeans make far less money than people in North America ... This should translate into lower sales for the PS3 (as compared to the US) because of how expensive it is ...



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Diomedes1976 said: TheSource said: One more thing that shows PS3 is not the N64...PS3 will not be the 3rd place console in Japan. However, PS3 is likely to be lower than 2nd place in at least two markets due to its price and timing of launch (North America - 4 million behind 360 and growing, Japan - 1 million behind Wii and growing ). Really, it is well behind in Europe as well, but that is unfair since it has not launched there yet. But do you REALLY believe the X360 will beat the PS3 in Europe ?
I didn't think the PS3 would be doing so poorly right now in Japan. You can never assume anything in the gaming industry....well except for poor X-box console sales in Japan



Darc Requiem said: Diomedes1976 said: TheSource said: One more thing that shows PS3 is not the N64...PS3 will not be the 3rd place console in Japan. However, PS3 is likely to be lower than 2nd place in at least two markets due to its price and timing of launch (North America - 4 million behind 360 and growing, Japan - 1 million behind Wii and growing ). Really, it is well behind in Europe as well, but that is unfair since it has not launched there yet. But do you REALLY believe the X360 will beat the PS3 in Europe ? I didn't think the PS3 would be doing so poorly right now in Japan. You can never assume anything in the gaming industry....well except for poor X-box console sales in Japan
poor X-box console sales in Japan Sad but true



 

  

 

"But even more than that, here’s the key: Nintendo alienated developers, Sony is alienating customers." You said it all, Erik.



Darc Requiem said: Diomedes1976 said: TheSource said: One more thing that shows PS3 is not the N64...PS3 will not be the 3rd place console in Japan. However, PS3 is likely to be lower than 2nd place in at least two markets due to its price and timing of launch (North America - 4 million behind 360 and growing, Japan - 1 million behind Wii and growing ). Really, it is well behind in Europe as well, but that is unfair since it has not launched there yet. But do you REALLY believe the X360 will beat the PS3 in Europe ? I didn't think the PS3 would be doing so poorly right now in Japan. You can never assume anything in the gaming industry....well except for poor X-box console sales in Japan
Well ,I also expected the PS3 to do better in Japan .I was expecting some 45-50K all the weeks .But things can improve ,as Gundam Mussou shows once the software starts rolling it will do well . But ,just to put the European data in perspective ..... Microsoft announced that they had sold 1.3 million consoles in Europe end september 2006 ,and 1.7 end november .Sony will launch with at least one million on launch day ,probably more ...and it will sell everything in days if its not in the same launching day .PS3 surpassing the X360 isnt a question of years but months .To add some nuances you have to consider the european market in two differente parts ;UK and continental Europe .Uk makes for some 35% of the European market as it is the older and more developed videogame market with the most hardcore gamers ,early adopters and also casual gamers .In UK the X360 is doing quite well ,not overwhelming anyone but managing good numbers ...still its sales for 2006 were below the PS2 ,the DS and the PSP ....so it was four out of four for the year .In continental Europa things are much worse ,with the X360 struggling in most markets and in some with ridicule numbers .In continental Europe the X360 has been selling like crap consistently .In the Christmas period Gears of War and an aggresive marketing campaign by Microsoft ,plus the delay of the PS3 and the Wii shortages ,did a lot in X360 favour and it improved its numbers ...but it still ranked below the DS ,PS2 ,PSP and Wii in that order being 5 out of 5 consoles competing .In Uk the X360 can keep its position for some months from the PS3 ,but in continental Europe it will be a question of one or two months until the PS3 displaces the X360 .The Xbox brand just hasnt got a good reputation here;Microsoft is seeing as some monopolistic company condemned by our justice several times ,and the machine is seen as some PC by many and even the gamers consider its technical problems ,lack of retrocompatibility and the failure of the Xbox (good numbers but surpassed by a great margin by the PS2 and only 3 years in the market here ) as reasons not to buy the machine .



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Erik Aston said: In this thread, I’m going to rant. Today, I’m going to rant about why… The PS3 is not the N64! One thing I see people say—both Ninty zealots and neutral observers—is that the PS3 is Sony’s N64. Um… I have to disagree… But maybe not for the reasons you think… Sony today and Ninty 10 years ago may have gotten themselves into similar situations. But they did not get to this point in the same way. In fact, it was basically the exact opposite. Nintendo was focusing on out-dated technology—tradition—Sony is focusing on pushing the envelope. The N64 was cheap, and PS3 is expensive. N64 was a “games only” machine, PS3 is a multi-media beast. N64 was a leader in controller innovation, PS3 is a follower. Basically, the whole theory and ideology behind the two consoles are totally different. But even more than that, here’s the key: Nintendo alienated developers, Sony is alienating customers. You don’t have to look past N64 launch sales, or N64’s top games vs. PS1’s top games, to know that customers were still enamored with Nintendo as the generation started. A $200 console with $50-60 games, which would produce well under 1,000 games during its cycle—no one knew that a better cost:value relationship could exist in the home console market, and there were tens of millions who were fine with it. It was developers, led by Square, who said “good riddance” to Nintendo. Nintendo’s policies towards third parties were atrocious, and were halting the growth of the industry. To developers and publishers looking at their bottom lines, this was as obvious and as angering as the PS3’s sticker price is to the public today. Today, by and large, developers don’t want to see Sony fail. They’ve prospered under the rule of PlayStation. Sony has repeatedly helped up-and-coming devs establish themselves (LittleBigWorld’s and flOw’s devs most recently), and invested heavily in tools for devs (most recently EDGE). The bulk of the perceived hate of Sony from devs is really them hoping for more parity in the home console business, not a Sony collapse. It’s the customers who are pissed at Sony, because the cost:value relationship they’ve come to expect is out the window. The days of buying one console for $300, getting games at $50 (without worrying about micro-transactions afterwards) and having a game library of 2,500 which includes “everything but the Nintendo games and Halo” are over. And your average Sony defender today? They're sold on Blu-Ray, or in other words, the new cost:value relationship works for them. The comparisons which do exist—both companies are arrogant, both are likely to shed a ton of marketshare… They’re surface observations which probably could be made between thousands of products. The scary thing for Sony is… They don’t understand what’s going on. A recent blog post by IGN’s Hilary Goldstein (Hil-IGN)… “Tonight, Sony held a meeting of the minds between some popular bloggers and a half-dozen high fallutin' PlayStation folks. For some reason Sony invited me… We sat at a table of about 20 people…On Sony's side were Phil Harrison and a handful of others who cooled themselves under the shade he provided. Everyone was very nice to each other, even when Harrison and the Sony crew were grilled about the negativity slung constantly at PS3. Unlike most interviews or press briefings, Harrison and crew were fairly candid. Though a few bits of marketing speak slipped into the conversation, Sony more or less conceded they have no idea why people are shitting all over them. It was Dylan Jobe, game director for Warhawk, who turned the tables and asked the bloggers (and me, for some reason) why people were so angry with Sony. /rant ~Erik.
I will point out a few things. At the time of the N64's release "NO ONE" considered it cheap. I was there first day. The cost of the games and the add-ons made that baby quite pricey. Second of all, you call them consumers but the majority of these loud and boisterous complainers can be considered anti-sony to begin with or fence sitters who need justification of price. Under the guise of being a concerned consumer their tru intentions start to become more visible the more features and games are announced for the PS3. Home....great but ain't worth $600. Blu ray player....great but ain't worth $600. Virtua fighter 5....great but ain't worth $600. Resistance....great but ain't worth $600. Motorstorm....great but ain't worth $600. Well what about all those things together? The coming of final fantasy, mgs4, dmc4 and many others. This griping over $600 crap is getting old and it is really the only thing people have to complain about. For those who wanted rumble, it is announced as returning. The line up of exclusives is quite large and pretty much all of them look promising. BC is at 50% and climbing for europe , if anyone remembers about the BC issues with the PS2 they will know that sony did not stop until 100% for each region was achieved. here is an interview excerpt, "GamesIndustry.biz: Do you accept that Sony has had a bit of an image problem with PlayStation 3 in recent months? Phil Harrison: No, I don't accept it. I've been doing my best to make sure that the world sees PlayStation 3 for what it is. I can't deny that we've had some challenges, but I think those are all behind us. It's all about software now, it's not about hardware. It's all about services, it's all about the way that the industry is changing and the way that we hope to be taking a leadership position in that change. I think you saw that yesterday and Tuesday night - we're taking some pretty giant steps forward. Following the showing of Home and LittleBigPlanet, do you think this is the tipping point - both in terms of realising the power of the hardware but also changing the public's perception of the machine? It's hard to describe something as a tipping point when you're in the middle of it. It's only something you can do with the benefit of hindsight. But I think the keynote here at GDC was a very significant moment for the evolution of PlayStation 3. It's something that we knew all along was coming, so it's perhaps not so much a surprise for me because I've obviously been working with these products and services for a long time. Also internally, we've been evangelising them, so there's a lot of work that we've been doing amongst ourselves - with some confidence that we're doing the right thing. We thought we knew we were on to something very strong with both of those opportunities, but there's no substitute for sharing it with the world and reading people's unedited reaction. We've been hearing lots of positive things from lots of people, and the response on the blogs and the websites and the forum seems to be almost universally fantastic - so I'm delighted." Pretty much what is happening are attacks and if you really think about it the attacks are malicious because it is aimed to smear image. The PS3 has been under attack (loudly) since before it is launched. The system is out in 2 regions and only for 4 months and everyone is proclaiming its demise. Bloggers and critics alike assume Sony has put all thier cards on the table and half assed what they are bringing to the system. The simple and plain truth is everyone that I know who has owned and enjoyed a PS2 wants to purchase a PS3 but the have not done so yet because of the price but are working towards it. Every friend that I have that is a critic of the PS3 or the average vocal critic on the street admit they are not a fan of the PS2 then proceed with the how "one" item is not worth $600 rant. Misinformation is also the key weapon here. People telling me what the PS3 and PSP cannot do. Or what it doesn't have makes it even more obvious that they have no idea what they are talking about. This console war that it's on the internet and blogs are feuled by personal opinions and fanboyism and has no real basis on what Sony should do in the future.



Games make me happy! PSN ID: Staticneuron Gamertag: Staticneuron Wii Code: Static Wii - 3055 0871 5802 1723

Diomedes1976 said: Well ,I also expected the PS3 to do better in Japan .I was expecting some 45-50K all the weeks .But things can improve ,as Gundam Mussou shows once the software starts rolling it will do well . But ,just to put the European data in perspective ..... Microsoft announced that they had sold 1.3 million consoles in Europe end september 2006 ,and 1.7 end november .Sony will launch with at least one million on launch day ,probably more ...and it will sell everything in days if its not in the same launching day .PS3 surpassing the X360 isnt a question of years but months .To add some nuances you have to consider the european market in two differente parts ;UK and continental Europe .Uk makes for some 35% of the European market as it is the older and more developed videogame market with the most hardcore gamers ,early adopters and also casual gamers .In UK the X360 is doing quite well ,not overwhelming anyone but managing good numbers ...still its sales for 2006 were below the PS2 ,the DS and the PSP ....so it was four out of four for the year .In continental Europa things are much worse ,with the X360 struggling in most markets and in some with ridicule numbers .In continental Europe the X360 has been selling like crap consistently .In the Christmas period Gears of War and an aggresive marketing campaign by Microsoft ,plus the delay of the PS3 and the Wii shortages ,did a lot in X360 favour and it improved its numbers ...but it still ranked below the DS ,PS2 ,PSP and Wii in that order being 5 out of 5 consoles competing .In Uk the X360 can keep its position for some months from the PS3 ,but in continental Europe it will be a question of one or two months until the PS3 displaces the X360 .The Xbox brand just hasnt got a good reputation here;Microsoft is seeing as some monopolistic company condemned by our justice several times ,and the machine is seen as some PC by many and even the gamers consider its technical problems ,lack of retrocompatibility and the failure of the Xbox (good numbers but surpassed by a great margin by the PS2 and only 3 years in the market here ) as reasons not to buy the machine .
Well, I think it is a little early to say that "Gundam Mussou shows once the software starts rolling it will do well" being that Gundam Mussou did not perform all that well and we don't know what long term effects the game had (if any). Now, one question is whether the XBox 360 has been performing poorly in Europe because Europeans dislike Microsoft and the XBox or whether the higher price has kept many consumers away ... Remember the XBox initially launched at 479€ and (after massive outrage) dropped its price to 299€ because of how few people bought the system immediately. The PS3 will be launched at €599.



I think it's silly to call the PS3 Sony's N64. The only similarity I see is they're both systems being released after the respective companies dominated the previous two generations of gaming. You can't compare Nintendo's decision to stick with cartriges, maybe the biggest error in judgement over a major console ever, to Sony's decision to make their PS3 a very expensive machine with incredibly advanced technology. The fact is the PS3 will do far better in Europe and in Japan than the N64 did. The PS3 is not going to shun third parties like the N64 did. The PS3 is a system ahead of its time, while the N64 was a system behind it's time. We really aren't going to be able to begin to predict Sony's long term succees with the PS3 for at least few years, but I think it's safe to say it'll eclipse the 33 million the N64 sold world wide long before the system loses steam.



staticneuron said: Erik Aston said: In this thread, I’m going to rant. Today, I’m going to rant about why… The PS3 is not the N64! One thing I see people say—both Ninty zealots and neutral observers—is that the PS3 is Sony’s N64. Um… I have to disagree… But maybe not for the reasons you think… Sony today and Ninty 10 years ago may have gotten themselves into similar situations. But they did not get to this point in the same way. In fact, it was basically the exact opposite. Nintendo was focusing on out-dated technology—tradition—Sony is focusing on pushing the envelope. The N64 was cheap, and PS3 is expensive. N64 was a “games only” machine, PS3 is a multi-media beast. N64 was a leader in controller innovation, PS3 is a follower. Basically, the whole theory and ideology behind the two consoles are totally different. But even more than that, here’s the key: Nintendo alienated developers, Sony is alienating customers. You don’t have to look past N64 launch sales, or N64’s top games vs. PS1’s top games, to know that customers were still enamored with Nintendo as the generation started. A $200 console with $50-60 games, which would produce well under 1,000 games during its cycle—no one knew that a better cost:value relationship could exist in the home console market, and there were tens of millions who were fine with it. It was developers, led by Square, who said “good riddance” to Nintendo. Nintendo’s policies towards third parties were atrocious, and were halting the growth of the industry. To developers and publishers looking at their bottom lines, this was as obvious and as angering as the PS3’s sticker price is to the public today. Today, by and large, developers don’t want to see Sony fail. They’ve prospered under the rule of PlayStation. Sony has repeatedly helped up-and-coming devs establish themselves (LittleBigWorld’s and flOw’s devs most recently), and invested heavily in tools for devs (most recently EDGE). The bulk of the perceived hate of Sony from devs is really them hoping for more parity in the home console business, not a Sony collapse. It’s the customers who are pissed at Sony, because the cost:value relationship they’ve come to expect is out the window. The days of buying one console for $300, getting games at $50 (without worrying about micro-transactions afterwards) and having a game library of 2,500 which includes “everything but the Nintendo games and Halo” are over. And your average Sony defender today? They're sold on Blu-Ray, or in other words, the new cost:value relationship works for them. The comparisons which do exist—both companies are arrogant, both are likely to shed a ton of marketshare… They’re surface observations which probably could be made between thousands of products. The scary thing for Sony is… They don’t understand what’s going on. A recent blog post by IGN’s Hilary Goldstein (Hil-IGN)… “Tonight, Sony held a meeting of the minds between some popular bloggers and a half-dozen high fallutin' PlayStation folks. For some reason Sony invited me… We sat at a table of about 20 people…On Sony's side were Phil Harrison and a handful of others who cooled themselves under the shade he provided. Everyone was very nice to each other, even when Harrison and the Sony crew were grilled about the negativity slung constantly at PS3. Unlike most interviews or press briefings, Harrison and crew were fairly candid. Though a few bits of marketing speak slipped into the conversation, Sony more or less conceded they have no idea why people are shitting all over them. It was Dylan Jobe, game director for Warhawk, who turned the tables and asked the bloggers (and me, for some reason) why people were so angry with Sony. /rant ~Erik. I will point out a few things. At the time of the N64's release "NO ONE" considered it cheap. I was there first day. The cost of the games and the add-ons made that baby quite pricey. Second of all, you call them consumers but the majority of these loud and boisterous complainers can be considered anti-sony to begin with or fence sitters who need justification of price. Under the guise of being a concerned consumer their tru intentions start to become more visible the more features and games are announced for the PS3. Home....great but ain't worth $600. Blu ray player....great but ain't worth $600. Virtua fighter 5....great but ain't worth $600. Resistance....great but ain't worth $600. Motorstorm....great but ain't worth $600. Well what about all those things together? The coming of final fantasy, mgs4, dmc4 and many others. This griping over $600 crap is getting old and it is really the only thing people have to complain about. For those who wanted rumble, it is announced as returning. The line up of exclusives is quite large and pretty much all of them look promising. BC is at 50% and climbing for europe , if anyone remembers about the BC issues with the PS2 they will know that sony did not stop until 100% for each region was achieved. here is an interview excerpt, "GamesIndustry.biz: Do you accept that Sony has had a bit of an image problem with PlayStation 3 in recent months? Phil Harrison: No, I don't accept it. I've been doing my best to make sure that the world sees PlayStation 3 for what it is. I can't deny that we've had some challenges, but I think those are all behind us. It's all about software now, it's not about hardware. It's all about services, it's all about the way that the industry is changing and the way that we hope to be taking a leadership position in that change. I think you saw that yesterday and Tuesday night - we're taking some pretty giant steps forward. Following the showing of Home and LittleBigPlanet, do you think this is the tipping point - both in terms of realising the power of the hardware but also changing the public's perception of the machine? It's hard to describe something as a tipping point when you're in the middle of it. It's only something you can do with the benefit of hindsight. But I think the keynote here at GDC was a very significant moment for the evolution of PlayStation 3. It's something that we knew all along was coming, so it's perhaps not so much a surprise for me because I've obviously been working with these products and services for a long time. Also internally, we've been evangelising them, so there's a lot of work that we've been doing amongst ourselves - with some confidence that we're doing the right thing. We thought we knew we were on to something very strong with both of those opportunities, but there's no substitute for sharing it with the world and reading people's unedited reaction. We've been hearing lots of positive things from lots of people, and the response on the blogs and the websites and the forum seems to be almost universally fantastic - so I'm delighted." Pretty much what is happening are attacks and if you really think about it the attacks are malicious because it is aimed to smear image. The PS3 has been under attack (loudly) since before it is launched. The system is out in 2 regions and only for 4 months and everyone is proclaiming its demise. Bloggers and critics alike assume Sony has put all thier cards on the table and half assed what they are bringing to the system. The simple and plain truth is everyone that I know who has owned and enjoyed a PS2 wants to purchase a PS3 but the have not done so yet because of the price but are working towards it. Every friend that I have that is a critic of the PS3 or the average vocal critic on the street admit they are not a fan of the PS2 then proceed with the how "one" item is not worth $600 rant. Misinformation is also the key weapon here. People telling me what the PS3 and PSP cannot do. Or what it doesn't have makes it even more obvious that they have no idea what they are talking about. This console war that it's on the internet and blogs are feuled by personal opinions and fanboyism and has no real basis on what Sony should do in the future.
Perfect post . Just to add my two cent ;most of the PS3 bashers were as well PS2 bashers and just arent Sony customer .PS2 may have sold 110 million consoles ,but you still have some 21 million Cube owners and 25 million Xbox owners that just hate Sony because of their success .Well , at least potential haters ....I do own both the Cube and the Xbox and dont hate Sony ,they do some things wrong others right as everybody .Having some millions of people out there wanting to put you down and having voice because the internet and the anonymous shield it gives you is helping a lot all this Sony-bashing phenomenon .We have been hearing mad rumours as not being able to hire games ,games costing 90 dollars ,the Cell being impossible to produce ,the arquitechture of the console being broken and slow ,the Cell or the RSX being downgraded at the last minute ....and so on .Nearly everything bullshit .This console has one big problem ,its price ,but all the other is just awesome .Reliability ,power ,design ,multimedia capabilities ,audiovisual output ,retrocompatibility (at least on Japan and US in Europe we will see ) ,Playstation Home ,free online gaming ,a killer lineup of future games ,already 20 games quite good out there ....well each of these is answered with a "yes but it is not worth 600" or "Sony liars " or "Sony copied Nintendo " .Pleeease ,it seems we are dealing with small children . Just to add something more ,its very curious how everybody seems to jump on what PSP or PS3 cant do instead on the helluva of things they can do ......that reminded me of this link about the FUD strategy used by IBM and Microsoft since the 80s ... http://www.cavcomp.demon.co.uk/halloween/fuddef.html And ,in a somewhat more humoristic note ,this could also be happening to explain so much hate for the PS3 and so biased commentaries on the console wars : http://www.linux-watch.com/news/NS4598924090.html



I hate to point out the obvious fact ... Most people who bought an XBox and Gamecube also owned a PS2 ... and if you look at the sales it becomes that most people agree with the statement "Its nice but not worth $600"