We usually talk about what's going on in the micro on these boards... how sales are doing this month, this week, what game is going to be released today... but what about the grand scheme of things? Console gaming has been an evolution. It just hit me today that this is the first generation in a long time where the basic playing field stayed unchanged: some things have changed, but you still have Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft duking it out for market-share. The last time this happened was the transition from NES and SMS to SNES and Genesis, and I honestly don't remember how viable a system the SMS was. Actually, if you throw in the Turbografx 16, even that transition had an inconsistency. Has the industry stablized? We now have two machines backed by an electronics and software giant, respectively, and a third machine backed by the single biggest constant in console games. Even if the PS3 fails, it won't be a Saturn-esque failure. I'd be completely and utterly surprized if it was as low as an N64-esque failure, and Nintendo managed to pull through that one. The 360 is going to at *least* reach the original X-box's market share in your very worst-case scenario. Nintendo... heck, they're probably going to end up with world-wide GameCube numbers in Japan alone. Unless Apple gets moving I don't see any future additions to the hardware industry, and it looks like the market can happily sustain 3 consoles. Are we now entering a "Silver Age" in the games industry? Has the market achieved a basic equilibrium that won't be changed, barring some insane catasrophe like an earthquake in Redmond that takes out both the NOA and Microsoft HQ's? If you're starting after the gaming crash of the 80's, we've gone from NES basically standing alone, to Genesis going toe-to-toe with SNES, to the PS1 annihilating the Saturn and pushing the N64 into a corner, to the PS2 gloating over the shattered corpse of the Dreamcast as GameCube licked Nintendo's wounds and X-box struggled to find a foothold for its successor. It took all of that to get to where we are today: three machines that may very well split the market 33% each, regardless of how much us fanboys cry and scream that our console will come out on top. What a rich heritage our little gaming obsession has.

I've been wondering about it too. As for a silver age of three console stability. At the very least, I can promise you that there will be other's entering the market. Don't know who, doubt they'll be too successful. But my large corporation saw that there was enough room for everybody, I'd probably be saying "me too". Of course, it's also possible that we'll see huge upsets as technology trends continue. What if the tech can become compact enough that one system can be both a handheld, and a console (ala Sega Nomad), What if the phone/ipod gaming trend continues. What if digital distribution renders the disk obsolete, allowing Bell, Virgin, Rogers or anybody else to get into satellite gaming or digital cable gaming. It seems fairly certain that the current three will all throw their hats in the ring again, but who knows who else will.

Well, hardware-wise, I think Nokia's a pretty good indication of how well outside companies are going to fare. Sony got in on Nintendo's launchpad, and Microsoft was successful because of the experience they have with software(and the willingness to create a "throwaway" console in order to establish themselves). I don't think even a company as eclectic as Virgin can keep up a competetive video game branch. A self-sustaining one, quite possibly, but it would probably be more as a compliment for some other venture than a real addition to the industry. I really think that if you're looking for new major hardware players, you're going to have to look at people who already do something similar to video games. All three companies are moving into digital distribution too fast to really let anyone jump the gun on them, even if it is theoretically possible.

One possible argument for a changing landscape is that this gen has already showed that consoles can take a divergent path. The Differences between the Wii and the ps3/360 are stark, and it might entice others to take different approaches. Once again, doubt they'll be very successful, but it might happen.