I have been keeping track of the roughly every 10 day increases in front page data. Recently, Wii has been closing in on 360 at about 180,000/10 days. If that rate were to continue, it would take 21.22 10-day cycles for Wii to catch 360. Assuming the data is within 5% or so of current userbases through the 12th of March, that would mean Wii would catch 360 in 212.22 days...or in 7.07 months (using a 30 day month). This would put the tie at October 15, 2007 around 9 am... If I am remembering the front page updates wrong, then it the tie-date is moved up much earlier...to August 10. I don't believe the updates are weekly though, or that the rates will remain constant. Anything before Sept 1 is impractical I think. But October 15 is awfully close to my expectations of within a few weeks of Nov 6, 2007.

I tend to think PS3 will kill 360 momentum a bit in the west, while Wii faces little competition throughout the year in Japan. So even if Wii loses momentum in Europe/N.A., I say 360 and PS3 cancel each other out a bit, negating Wii loss in momentum.

Yeah. But I still have Wii in first through the end of the year, once it takes over 1st. 2008 and beyond I say is anybody's game (though I wouldn't place my bets on the 360 selling the most worldwide). I can see each console in 1st, 2nd, 3rd at some point this gen.

It seems, however, every time NPD numbers are out, the 360 gets a pretty decent boost, and the Wii stays a little more stagant - then reverses the rest of the month in between NPD numbers. The issue is that in most countries, Summer will provide a lull for every console, slowing the rate of which the Wii over-takes the 360 at. I disagree about the PS3 taking away the 360's momentumn - if anything, the opposite. I'd consider the price tag helping the 360 out, expecially when the 360/PS3 multiports are released, as the casuals that won't include the wii in their buying strategy, will pick up the 360s more often. Better yet, the lack of Wii availability might help both - 360 to a much higher degree.

I don't think Wii will ever be in last, price counts for a lot (look at how the PS2 is selling right now). But I can't rule it out. * Change in position ** Change in position from PS2-Xbox-GC gen 2005 - 360** What I see as likely is: 2006 - Worldwide: 360** - Wii** - PS3** Japan: **Wii-**PS3-360* Americas: **360-**Wii-**PS3 Europe: **360-**Wii Jan 1, 2007 - Nov 6 2007 Worldwide: **360-**Wii - PS3** Japan: Wii**-PS3**-360** Americas: 360**-Wii**-PS3** Europe: 360**-Wii**-PS3** **Nov 6 2007 - March 31 2008 Worldwide: *Wii-*360-PS3 Japan: Wii-PS3-360 Americas: 360-Wii-PS3 Europe: 360-Wii-PS3 **March 31, 2008 - Nov 30, 2008 Worldwide: Wii-360-PS3 Japan: Wii-PS3-360 Americas: 360-Wii-PS3 Europe: *Wii-*PS3-*360 Dec 1, 2008 - **End Generation Worldwide: Wii-*PS3-360 Japan: Wii-PS3-360 Americas: 360-Wii-PS3 Europe: Wii-PS3-360

Source, You never see the Wii pulling ahead of the 360 in America why is that?

The data on the frontpage is not very reliable .I mean ,the X360 difference for NA start to approach dangerously the 1 million consoles compared to NPD data .The Wii is always overestimated (altough not by much ) .The only reliable data there is the PS3 and handhelds .