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The third time´s the charm?Microsoft to win next generation?

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - The third time´s the charm?Microsoft to win next generation?

ctk495 said:

They haven´t lost a generation yet.Sony has,Nintendo has but Microsoft has never lost.They have mantain a steady pace keeping themselfs second and  I think they could have the right balance.Just by seeing how last year´s E3 you could see

Nintendo=Casuals

Sony=Hardcore

Microsoft=Both

I see them going in the right track they already have to solid main franchises Gears and Halo and probably more to come.

Let's examine this logic.

Nintendo had two winning consoles, then a second place console, then a third place console, then a winning console.

Sony had two winning consoles, then a second/third place console.

Microsoft has had a second place console, and a second/third place console, and you think they have the momentum to win a generation?

Notice that Nintendo's worst selling console (GameCube) was the one that innovated least. And the best selling console (will have) innovated most.

Neither of Sony's winning consoles innovated a great deal, but they took Nintendo's innovations and improved them. When Nintendo failed to innovate with the GC, momentum from the PS1 carried on to the PS2, like momentum from the NES had carried onto the SNES. And, like every generation, the market grew.

The seventh gen saw Nintendo innovating like they've never innovated before, kicking them right back into first place.

What about the PS1? My theory is that Sony tapped into an entirely new market (Europe), and of course was far wealthier than Sega or Nintendo. This combination allowed them to shoot into first place, with a massive lead of 70 million consoles over second. Microsoft had the money, yes, but they were going against the quality of the PS2, and that was something they just couldn't beat.

So Microsoft had basically no chance of winning this gen, unless they innovated like Nintendo had, and even then, it's doubtful. Sony had a shot. If they had, again, built on Nintendo's innovations, they would have been in first.

But hang on. They had nothing to build on. As I mentioned, the GameCube wasn't really innovative at all.

So on an entirely different topic, I think part of the reason the PS3 is in last is because of the GameCube...

Going back to the topic at hand, Microsoft is in a similar situation. They have the money, but they are against Nintendo's innovation...and Sony. Wait a minute, remember how the PS2 and to a certain extent PS1 won? Building on Nintendo's innovations. Which is precisely what Sony can do next gen. Microsoft is in no position to come in anything better than second, unless they manage to build on these innovations better than Sony, something they've never done before.

People say the Wii 2, or Wii HD, or whatever, is "a sequel to Wii, so it'll be in first!" Not really. The Wii got where it was with innovation. Chucking in a feature that your competitors had seven years ago is not innovation. So to be honest *raises flameshield*, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this "Wii 2" was in third. Assuming of course that they add nothing new.

So my predictions for next generation?

1) Sony

2) Microsoft

3) Nintendo.

As things stand right now. Of course, they could change, and there are a lot of possible unforeseen factors at play. Such as the possible introduction of a fourth console.



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S.T.A.G.E. said:
Squilliam said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Microsoft will have America firmly in their grasp by next year and most likely they'll have hardware that doesn't break down upon launch. I think they will have a far greater chance of winning next gen than any other gen. The more Microsoft seems to learn, the more dangerous they become. I say they and Nintendo will be neck and neck since they both have found their strong points.

I wonder about how Nintendo and Microsoft are going to compete really. The thing is with the Wii, its really got hardware from circa 2002, by 2011 thats almost two whole generations of visual improvements and if a console comes out in say 2011 like the Wii but far far more powerful the graphical improvements would be enough to impress people.

1. Well, the good thing about Nintendo is the depth of their games is all that matters. The graphics really is a non-factor because Nintendos gameplay always shines through (even when they have few games). They know they cannot depend on third parties and their graphics hungry games (thanks to Sony), so lets just hope for a good HD Wii. I think Nintendo gets it that the majority of the casuals will not graduate to the multiple button controller like Sony and MS have said. All they need to do is stay close enough to what the Wii was built on, with a couple of improvements and a love price and you have a winner.

Microsoft does have the strength of Xbox Live, its a community which should give them quite a significant captive audience who will only upgrade to a next generation Xbox console barring unforseen circumstances like it sucking balls. Theres 10-20M people right there who may eventually get an Xbox Evolution. Thats a pretty good base to build off, especially as neither PSN or Wii online has the same community feeling and probably not the same level of loyalty.

2. Microsoft might not get enough of the casuals, however, they can bag the hardcore base which are still hungry for an HD system today (Which are probably the majority of the PS2 fanbase). They've already got America and Xbox Live has over 17 Million users. All Microsoft has to do now is make affordable hardware that is undisputed quality, which no one can argue with. After this gen is over Microsoft will be solidified as a true competitor because it will have multitple quality first party titles, much like Sony and Nintendo. They will have a very good run next gen.

Microsoft does have quite a few options up its sleeve. They have the option of turning the Xbox Evolution into a computer, they have Windows for example. They have some pretty cool interface technologies as well. What they don't have is a reliable 1st party stable to develop cutting edge innovative software for their Nextbox. To mitigate that weakness they have to release early and get developers working on their platform and releasing games before other platforms to give them early momentum. So ideally they will want to release at least one year, preferrably 18m-2years before Nintendo to give themselves and third parties a chance to create some really compelling software.

3. I have an eerie feeling Sony is going to be the weak link next gen, despite the fact that Blu Ray prices will fall. Everyone who cares enough about gaming knows Sony has lost its only connection with gamers, which was primarly gathering all of the third party games with a shovel. Now that Microsoft is playing the same game, they want to act like they are high and moral. Their world will never be the same. Once Digital downloads become big with consoles instead of hard formats, Sony will be forced to leave. Sony will do well next gen, but I believe they will still be in third.

 


1. Well, the good thing about Nintendo is the depth of their games is all that matters. The graphics really is a non-factor because Nintendos gameplay always shines through (even when they have few games). They know they cannot depend on third parties and their graphics hungry games (thanks to Sony), so lets just hope for a good HD Wii. I think Nintendo gets it that the majority of the casuals will not graduate to the multiple button controller like Sony and MS have said. All they need to do is stay close enough to what the Wii was built on, with a couple of improvements and a love price and you have a winner.

Nintendos biggest vulnerability IMO is the fact that they can be blindsided by 3rd party brilliance. Fortunately for them, much of the HD software released this gen didn't have the magic which saw then pummelled by the PS1. They are only one company, and doing it alone against a horde of different competitors is difficult even for the best. The other issue they have is that their Wii owners may not graduate from the Wii. Wii Fit is brilliant, but for someone who owns the Wii for just that program, they have very little reason to upgrade the way I see it.

2. Microsoft might not get enough of the casuals, however, they can bag the hardcore base which are still hungry for an HD system today (Which are probably the majority of the PS2 fanbase). They've already got America and Xbox Live has over 17 Million users. All Microsoft has to do now is make affordable hardware that is undisputed quality, which no one can argue with. After this gen is over Microsoft will be solidified as a true competitor because it will have multitple quality first party titles, much like Sony and Nintendo. They will have a very good run next gen.

If they release first they have a chance to excite the market. This is as much a game of momentum as anything else and once they have that they have the chance to lock in key sections of the market with their Live network and build from there. This is pretty much a similar strategy to Nintendo, its the network effect of multiplayer. If they get a commanding lead here, it won't matter if they don't have the coolest games because people will buy the console their friends have just to play, chat or whatever. People will even advocate their console of choice to a friend just to get them to play online with them.

3. I have an eerie feeling Sony is going to be the weak link next gen, despite the fact that Blu Ray prices will fall. Everyone who cares enough about gaming knows Sony has lost its only connection with gamers, which was primarly gathering all of the third party games with a shovel. Now that Microsoft is playing the same game, they want to act like they are high and moral. Their world will never be the same. Once Digital downloads become big with consoles instead of hard formats, Sony will be forced to leave. Sony will do well next gen, but I believe they will still be in third.

If you look at the games Sony has released thus far, say for the PS2 you can see that really they haven't got a clue as to how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. On a console of over 100 million, the sheer lack of huge selling games is a testament to how badly they have done thus far in making or finding these games. Their performance this generation leaves me wondering if beyond the hardcore gamer they actually know how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. Granted, Microsoft is only a little better here except they make up for it with their wallet.

As far as digital downloads go, I think you're overstating what you perceive as a weakness when infact there is none. Their greatest weakness in transitioning to digital downloads is that with Blu Ray now they cannot offer reasonable download sizes next generation for current generation games. Microsoft on the other hand is perfectly positioned to take advantage of downloadable games on the other hand. I don't think they will be forced to leave, unless they get whipped again. However their greatest challenge is overcoming Xbox Live with the fact that its sucking up the core and hardcore gamers they've set their business up to target.

 

 



Tease.

The_God_of_War said:
They lost last gen, you either win or lose. I don't see them winning next gen because Nintendo could just release the "Wii 2" and Sony will learn from their mistakes. And there's the 3rd console curse as well. I could be wrong though.

think about sega..



anyway...i think that Nintendo maybe will have a harder time next generation than they had this... you know all the "wii fit, my fitness coach" gamers will probably not come back, for them wii is just another half-hearted try to get slim...- 10 000 000 sold consoles just there....then we have the children's who wanted wii as a toy to play wii sport and then bought games like "Big Beach Party" and "Game party" and they will probably not come back to Nintendo... and i think they are like 10 miljons to...

i dont say nintendo cant win without these...but i think the race will be much closer and be more based on who has the "good games" next generation. I think Next generation will have less crap games, less sold consoles and less casual things.

The gamers who bought wii for first time with games like Mario Kart, Guitar Hero and Lego Star Wars will probably come back to gaming because they have had a good experience off it. So Nintendo will probably stay biggest...but it will be a much closer run...



ctk495 said:

They haven´t lost a generation yet.Sony has,Nintendo has but Microsoft has never lost.They have mantain a steady pace keeping themselfs second and  I think they could have the right balance.Just by seeing how last year´s E3 you could see

Nintendo=Casuals

Sony=Hardcore

Microsoft=Both

I see them going in the right track they already have to solid main franchises Gears and Halo and probably more to come.

 

LOL, depends on how you define "win". Is selling the most consoles winning???

MS are over 9 billion $ in the hole. The made a tiny profit last year, but again they're taking losses because they dropped the price to $199 to save themselves the embarasement of being outsold weekly by PS3 which was $120 MORE EXPENSIVE.

It's pretty common to sell a console at a loss at launch, but to be selling at a loss 3.5 years later is not good at all.

The problem MS has is that they either have to lose the console war or lose a shitload of money. They simply cannot fight fair with Sony and Nintendo and expect to win. There's simply more talent in those companies.



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mztazmz said:
ctk495 said:

They haven´t lost a generation yet.Sony has,Nintendo has but Microsoft has never lost.They have mantain a steady pace keeping themselfs second and  I think they could have the right balance.Just by seeing how last year´s E3 you could see

Nintendo=Casuals

Sony=Hardcore

Microsoft=Both

I see them going in the right track they already have to solid main franchises Gears and Halo and probably more to come.

 

LOL, depends on how you define "win". Is selling the most consoles winning???

MS are over 9 billion $ in the hole. The made a tiny profit last year, but again they're taking losses because they dropped the price to $199 to save themselves the embarasement of being outsold weekly by PS3 which was $120 MORE EXPENSIVE.

It's pretty common to sell a console at a loss at launch, but to be selling at a loss 3.5 years later is not good at all.

The problem MS has is that they either have to lose the console war or lose a shitload of money. They simply cannot fight fair with Sony and Nintendo and expect to win. There's simply more talent in those companies.

Actually considering that the average price of Xbox 360s sold in the U.S.A. is $290 you're full of it.

 



Tease.

ALL I'm going to say is, that this generation isn't over yet not for about 3-4 years, so to say that microsoft hasn't lost half way through a generation is stupid



if you consider losing as last place, nintendo has never lost... last gen the DC lost.

oh yeah they lost the GBA era... they were alone ^^

anyways this game is about earning money so you win when you do and you lose when you don't...



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Squilliam said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Squilliam said:

 



 

If you look at the games Sony has released thus far, say for the PS2 you can see that really they haven't got a clue as to how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. On a console of over 100 million, the sheer lack of huge selling games is a testament to how badly they have done thus far in making or finding these games. Their performance this generation leaves me wondering if beyond the hardcore gamer they actually know how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. Granted, Microsoft is only a little better here except they make up for it with their wallet.

 

Yeah, because every PS2 game released to a user base of over 100 million.

Seriously, when a console sells as much as the PS1 or PS2, it's quite hard to make a game that appeals to every gamer(or even close to it) because those gamers are of so many different demographics. Even with the DS and the Wii, their best selling, non-bundled titles will have only sold to 10-20% of their respective user bases.

Microsoft is better? Please. What game on a Microsoft console, first or third party, has ever sold more than ten million? Granted, games like Halo and Gears Of War had high attach rates, but that's because the Xbox and Xbox 360 install bases consist almost entirely of core and hardcore gamers and don't have the mass appeal of the PS1/PS2/Wii/DS, so if you make a core or hardcore game, it's obviously going to sell to a large chunk of the install base.

 

 

 



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

I doubt it unless there is an underlying change in global purchasing or MS changes tack for their next console. So far as I see MS is locked into having a console that has high specs, required to deliver ever better graphical versions of Halo, Gears, Fable, etc.

Every generation seems to be won by a console that is not at the edge graphically/specs but captures the middle ground and general purchasers (something both Sony and Nintendo have done, and I believe could do again).

For two generations MS has shown growth, but has shown no real ability to capture the general consumer. I see no evidence to believe they stand a better chance than Nintendo or Sony of doing so next gen.

If MS really wants to win the next gen I think its going to really have to consider the specification/cost of the console vs the level Nintendo (and I suspect Sony) too are likely to aim for after seeing how this gen is playing out.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...