They haven´t lost a generation yet.Sony has,Nintendo has but Microsoft has never lost.They have mantain a steady pace keeping themselfs second and I think they could have the right balance.Just by seeing how last year´s E3 you could see
I see them going in the right track they already have to solid main franchises Gears and Halo and probably more to come.
Let's examine this logic.
Nintendo had two winning consoles, then a second place console, then a third place console, then a winning console.
Sony had two winning consoles, then a second/third place console.
Microsoft has had a second place console, and a second/third place console, and you think they have the momentum to win a generation?
Notice that Nintendo's worst selling console (GameCube) was the one that innovated least. And the best selling console (will have) innovated most.
Neither of Sony's winning consoles innovated a great deal, but they took Nintendo's innovations and improved them. When Nintendo failed to innovate with the GC, momentum from the PS1 carried on to the PS2, like momentum from the NES had carried onto the SNES. And, like every generation, the market grew.
The seventh gen saw Nintendo innovating like they've never innovated before, kicking them right back into first place.
What about the PS1? My theory is that Sony tapped into an entirely new market (Europe), and of course was far wealthier than Sega or Nintendo. This combination allowed them to shoot into first place, with a massive lead of 70 million consoles over second. Microsoft had the money, yes, but they were going against the quality of the PS2, and that was something they just couldn't beat.
So Microsoft had basically no chance of winning this gen, unless they innovated like Nintendo had, and even then, it's doubtful. Sony had a shot. If they had, again, built on Nintendo's innovations, they would have been in first.
But hang on. They had nothing to build on. As I mentioned, the GameCube wasn't really innovative at all.
So on an entirely different topic, I think part of the reason the PS3 is in last is because of the GameCube...
Going back to the topic at hand, Microsoft is in a similar situation. They have the money, but they are against Nintendo's innovation...and Sony. Wait a minute, remember how the PS2 and to a certain extent PS1 won? Building on Nintendo's innovations. Which is precisely what Sony can do next gen. Microsoft is in no position to come in anything better than second, unless they manage to build on these innovations better than Sony, something they've never done before.
People say the Wii 2, or Wii HD, or whatever, is "a sequel to Wii, so it'll be in first!" Not really. The Wii got where it was with innovation. Chucking in a feature that your competitors had seven years ago is not innovation. So to be honest *raises flameshield*, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this "Wii 2" was in third. Assuming of course that they add nothing new.
So my predictions for next generation?
As things stand right now. Of course, they could change, and there are a lot of possible unforeseen factors at play. Such as the possible introduction of a fourth console.