Let's imagine the PS3 and 360 end up selling 100 million combined . For the Wii to have 60% market share, it would have to sell 150 million. It's possible.

there are some who feel that 240-260mil this gen is possible so it will be intresting to see.

Actually with consoles like the PS3, expect the audience to continue to broaden as it sells more units at cheaper price points, much like the PS2 did.

As much as I hate to say it, when reduced budget games become more common place (development costs drop), and the hardware prices become more mass market friendly, is when real market expansion takes place for any console that's managed to stay competitively in the game.

I don't want to use the Xbox as a model for the future of the 360 as the 360 has already succeeded where the Xbox failed in terms of library and hardware sales, but MS is clearly trying to expand markets as well from both a broader market appeal from both a software variety angle (broad appeal/"casual" games) and mass market friendly hardware prices.

There's no reason to believe either console will remain with the core and "semi-core" demographics. Barring any early exits/replacements, the trend will only move in the opposite direction towards broader market appeal.

@greenmedic

you make very good points what make it more interesting is that if all consoles keep expanding their demographics this could easily become a much longer gen than most think.

That's actually what all three companies would prefer to see rather than the typical 5 year plan (less when performing below expectations) everyone has come to expect.

It's extremely expensive to launch a new platform after all.

We'll likely see incremental hardware changes across all three consoles including a repackaged ver. 1.5 before the 8th generation actually arrives.

there's no doubt that while the consoles are selling very well the console makers and the dev's will be happy to see this gen continue profit it what any and all these companys want while market share plays it part it's not the only thing.

Umm, yeah, of course it will happen, let me put it to you guys clearly, Wii has sold more than the PS2 and even the DS did by this point in their lifespan, yet by this point both the PS2 and the DS had price drops and/or new colors, Wii has yet to have any of that stuff, and yet its still dominating. Heck Wii probably wont see its first price drop until sometime next year at the earliest. Wii will have a very long lifespan.

dont think it will i also doubt 50% is reachable

yes you also make very good points the interesting thing this gen is that the wii could hit and even pass 60% and the other consoles pass combined 100-120mil.

About 9 months ago, I said if it doesn't reach 50% by early 09, it's not likely to ever (short of 360 or PS3 being obsoleted with newer models). Not saying it's impossible, but the more 360+PS3s out there, the harder each .1% is going to be to make up...  Maybe by the end of June, sales of wii will pick up with some of the new releases coming.