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Wedbush Morgan: Wii to lead Feb. sales, PS3 stabilizing (NA)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wedbush Morgan: Wii to lead Feb. sales, PS3 stabilizing (NA)

Kwaad said: Why? Why does no-one rember White Knight Story?
Well, it's one of the only titles on my PS3-Games-To-Watch list. :)



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

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StarcraftManiac said: Agree... March will be the foundation of a trend, Wii or PS3... If Ps3 doesn't pick up in sales we'll have to wait untill some BIG AAA Killer aps coming end 07 or 08. But with Big Wii games coming out in March/Apr like Paper mario The godfather (also on PS3) SSX blur Prince of persia and no more heroes coming in Juli, its going to be hard for PS3 to gain momentum and take no 1. Selling spot worldwide. Im guessing Wií will have advantage... Ending on top 07 unless Halo 3 makes a BIG BIG SPLASH ( Mario galaxy and metroid and SSB': Brawl will too btw...) And setting a trend for lower PS3 sales with moderate to slightly high sales when a killer app releases with a lower userbase... (i think im going to create a thread about that one...)
If Halo 3 comes out by years end it won't. Have the overall advantage, I think it could be likely the Wii may still be outselling the 360 and PS3, but as I've always said, I see those numbers tapering off as it enters its life cycle. (Personally I think it may become like the DS Lite, Wii might see another version, hahahah nice pun I crack me up) March may be an up month for PS3 as Motorstorm and Formula 1 both came out (F-1 on February 27th). I've heard a lot of people liking motorstorm and it is a great looking game. The only seller I see on that list is Paper Mario. The Godfather was a horrible game on 360. It was supposed to be (GTA huge) but it barely did anything. It's not a good game, and I wouldn't want to see a port if I was a big Wii fan. I think SSX could be pretty unique, except, will you be able to jump? That would be cool, maybe they will come out with a pad (which is what they should do, just like dance dance revolution and then use it on games for jumping along with the Wii mote) The Prince of Persia series has gone down hill for a while now. I don't even like the series any more, just my opinion. Unfortunately on PS3 all the games that were supposed to be coming out right about now are not. Heavenly Sword and Lair were both originally scheduled for this month. I know devs push back all the time, but still, it would have been nice to see those games. I don't know what diomedes is talking about because niether Lair nor Heavenly Sword have been confirmed yet. Lair right now says "May" but it feels like it will be later, and Heavenly sword last I heard was Q3 2007. But that's not to say it doesn't have Killer Apps coming, Killzone, FFXIII, MGS4, DMC4, and RE5 all supposed to be out this year. (RE5 of course is not exclusive) Something that strikes me is how Sony could not make Spidey 3 exclusive, it's based on the movie, Sony has the exclusive rights to the movie distribution because it's from Sony pictures. And the game is being released for the movie....makes no sense why they didn't lock that down.



Stromprophet said: StarcraftManiac said: Agree... March will be the foundation of a trend, Wii or PS3... If Ps3 doesn't pick up in sales we'll have to wait untill some BIG AAA Killer aps coming end 07 or 08. But with Big Wii games coming out in March/Apr like Paper mario The godfather (also on PS3) SSX blur Prince of persia and no more heroes coming in Juli, its going to be hard for PS3 to gain momentum and take no 1. Selling spot worldwide. Im guessing Wií will have advantage... Ending on top 07 unless Halo 3 makes a BIG BIG SPLASH ( Mario galaxy and metroid and SSB': Brawl will too btw...) And setting a trend for lower PS3 sales with moderate to slightly high sales when a killer app releases with a lower userbase... (i think im going to create a thread about that one...) If Halo 3 comes out by years end it won't. Have the overall advantage, I think it could be likely the Wii may still be outselling the 360 and PS3, but as I've always said, I see those numbers tapering off as it enters its life cycle. (Personally I think it may become like the DS Lite, Wii might see another version, hahahah nice pun I crack me up) March may be an up month for PS3 as Motorstorm and Formula 1 both came out (F-1 on February 27th). I've heard a lot of people liking motorstorm and it is a great looking game. The only seller I see on that list is Paper Mario. The Godfather was a horrible game on 360. It was supposed to be (GTA huge) but it barely did anything. It's not a good game, and I wouldn't want to see a port if I was a big Wii fan. I think SSX could be pretty unique, except, will you be able to jump? That would be cool, maybe they will come out with a pad (which is what they should do, just like dance dance revolution and then use it on games for jumping along with the Wii mote) The Prince of Persia series has gone down hill for a while now. I don't even like the series any more, just my opinion. Unfortunately on PS3 all the games that were supposed to be coming out right about now are not. Heavenly Sword and Lair were both originally scheduled for this month. I know devs push back all the time, but still, it would have been nice to see those games. I don't know what diomedes is talking about because niether Lair nor Heavenly Sword have been confirmed yet. Lair right now says "May" but it feels like it will be later, and Heavenly sword last I heard was Q3 2007. But that's not to say it doesn't have Killer Apps coming, Killzone, FFXIII, MGS4, DMC4, and RE5 all supposed to be out this year. (RE5 of course is not exclusive) Something that strikes me is how Sony could not make Spidey 3 exclusive, it's based on the movie, Sony has the exclusive rights to the movie distribution because it's from Sony pictures. And the game is being released for the movie....makes no sense why they didn't lock that down.
FFXIII, MGS4, DMC4 and RE5 are most likely not going to be 2007 releases, only RE5 could make it... but i still doubt it. And the Wii has: Super Mario Galaxy, FF:CC The Crystal Bearers, SSBB, MP3, Pokemon Battle Revolution, Batallion Wars II (BWii), No More Heroes and Disaster Day of Crisis.




Stromprophet said: Something that strikes me is how Sony could not make Spidey 3 exclusive, it's based on the movie, Sony has the exclusive rights to the movie distribution because it's from Sony pictures. And the game is being released for the movie....makes no sense why they didn't lock that down.
Activision paid a crapload of money to aquire the Spiderman licence in the late 90's to create videogames based on the IP and I assume that Sony aquired the Spiderman licence in 2000 or 2001 to create the movie. Sony has no right to the Spiderman licence when it comes to videogames and (likely) decided to play nice and let Activision produce "Spiderman 3: The Movie (The Videogame)". Hypothetically speaking, Sony could probably prevent Activision from making a game based on the storyline in Spiderman 3, but couldn't prevent Spiderman games from being created. If they tried to force Activision to make the game exclusive Activision could have refused and made a generic Spiderman game to be released along side the movie that was not available on the PSP or PS3.



gamingdevil said: Stromprophet said: StarcraftManiac said: Agree... March will be the foundation of a trend, Wii or PS3... If Ps3 doesn't pick up in sales we'll have to wait untill some BIG AAA Killer aps coming end 07 or 08. But with Big Wii games coming out in March/Apr like Paper mario The godfather (also on PS3) SSX blur Prince of persia and no more heroes coming in Juli, its going to be hard for PS3 to gain momentum and take no 1. Selling spot worldwide. Im guessing Wií will have advantage... Ending on top 07 unless Halo 3 makes a BIG BIG SPLASH ( Mario galaxy and metroid and SSB': Brawl will too btw...) And setting a trend for lower PS3 sales with moderate to slightly high sales when a killer app releases with a lower userbase... (i think im going to create a thread about that one...) If Halo 3 comes out by years end it won't. Have the overall advantage, I think it could be likely the Wii may still be outselling the 360 and PS3, but as I've always said, I see those numbers tapering off as it enters its life cycle. (Personally I think it may become like the DS Lite, Wii might see another version, hahahah nice pun I crack me up) March may be an up month for PS3 as Motorstorm and Formula 1 both came out (F-1 on February 27th). I've heard a lot of people liking motorstorm and it is a great looking game. The only seller I see on that list is Paper Mario. The Godfather was a horrible game on 360. It was supposed to be (GTA huge) but it barely did anything. It's not a good game, and I wouldn't want to see a port if I was a big Wii fan. I think SSX could be pretty unique, except, will you be able to jump? That would be cool, maybe they will come out with a pad (which is what they should do, just like dance dance revolution and then use it on games for jumping along with the Wii mote) The Prince of Persia series has gone down hill for a while now. I don't even like the series any more, just my opinion. Unfortunately on PS3 all the games that were supposed to be coming out right about now are not. Heavenly Sword and Lair were both originally scheduled for this month. I know devs push back all the time, but still, it would have been nice to see those games. I don't know what diomedes is talking about because niether Lair nor Heavenly Sword have been confirmed yet. Lair right now says "May" but it feels like it will be later, and Heavenly sword last I heard was Q3 2007. But that's not to say it doesn't have Killer Apps coming, Killzone, FFXIII, MGS4, DMC4, and RE5 all supposed to be out this year. (RE5 of course is not exclusive) Something that strikes me is how Sony could not make Spidey 3 exclusive, it's based on the movie, Sony has the exclusive rights to the movie distribution because it's from Sony pictures. And the game is being released for the movie....makes no sense why they didn't lock that down. FFXIII, MGS4, DMC4 and RE5 are most likely not going to be 2007 releases, only RE5 could make it... but i still doubt it. And the Wii has: Super Mario Galaxy, FF:CC The Crystal Bearers, SSBB, MP3, Pokemon Battle Revolution, Batallion Wars II (BWii), No More Heroes and Disaster Day of Crisis.
Mmm ...FF:CC ,Pokemon Battle Revolution ,Batallion Wars ,Mario ...all those were on the Cube and that wasnt enough even to put up a good fight .Maybe Wii sells by hype alone and in a Tamagotchi-impulse-buying ,but on the software front alone it hasnt got anything to do .PS3 at least will have this year Unreal 3 ,Haze ,Assasins Creed ,Devil May Cry 4 ,Heavenly Sword ,Lair ,Singstar ,Killzone 2 and some other top notch games .



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The big questions for Febuary (providing the estimates are near true): 1. How "low" can Sony go? Supposedly, the supply/demand is stabilizing. However, by all accounts, it was still somewhat sold out in early Feb. March will be a 4 week month. Can it stay above 200k with the software? If so, it should do mediocre business the rest of the year, and give Sony a fighting chance during the holidays and '08. If not, there are some semi-dark days ahead until major titles ship and a pricedrop happens. 2. How quickly can the Wii max out on demand (if ever?) 350k is great for the Wii, however, the real question will be if it can keep shipping 80k+ a week and selling out in March. It seems that supply is coming a little bit easier to find. Maybe a slowdown in March? 3. Will the 360 keep up with January, and sell just at 20% below, or slightly more due to games like MLB2k7/Crackdown? It seems that 360 software is still #1 in the next gen - but by how much? 4. What will the new software attach ratios be? Can the Wii and/or PS3 sell near 1m software units each (not including Wii Sports)? 2.4 is an improvement for the PS3, and 2.4 for the Wii is staying the same. If trends like that continue, the PS3 could improve it's ratio past the Wii in software - a good sign for the PS3, and a bad sign for the Wii as it seems that it'd be getting the 'casual' effect the DS has got and have lower-than-normal tier ratios. If that's the case, then devs might not flock as quickly as some think they will.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Those numbers all seem sensible, and quite reasonable to me. At 350k the Wii is selling out (about half the global, monthly production levels - and we know about 300k sold in Japan for the month). No idea how much PS3 is producing, but if Sony's shipment figures are to be believed, it should be selling higher than this. As said, March is the critical month for it. I expect Wii Play *at least* to break 100,000 units - easily. It may even top the month. Not so sure about Sonic (was it a late Feb release?) or WarioWare - could also do 100k. The challenge is really out to the 360 - plenty of software, plenty of hardware available. Can it keep outselling the PS3? Can new software lead it to #1 for the month? Also curious to see if PSP sales picked (with the big Jan releases), and if DS sales recover after a resupply.



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kber81 said: We don't care about mario 54 because we are a bit more mature.
I hope that's a joke.