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Forums - Sales Discussion - So Where The Recent Adjustments Wrong?

Hyruken on 16 April 2009

So were the 360 adjustments wrong then or were they right? Finding it all a bit confusing!



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TWRoO on 16 April 2009

My bet is ioi will wait until the shipment figures (probably a couple of weeks away) then we shall see if any adjustments are made.



TWRoO on 16 April 2009
Brett said:

Not as confusing as I do!

As I've explained many times - we get data, we extrapolate it, check it with other data then post it up on the site. I expect some differences with other tracking services - it's inevitable - but month after month I'm shocked with how the data NPD releases makes no sense and seems to yo-yo. Some months it is way higher than ours, other months way lower, and for no real reason!

I am at a loss as to why NPD thinks the videogame market has almost crashed in the last 5 weeks.

Wii:
Jan -  170k per week
Feb - 188k per week
Mar - 120k per week (36% drop)

PS3:
Jan -  50k per week
Feb - 69k per week
Mar - 43k per week (38% drop)

360:
Jan - 77k per week
Feb - 97k per week
Mar - 66k per week (32% drop)

What the hell?

Oh, and PS2:
Jan - 25k per week
Feb - 33k per week
Mar - 22k per week (33% drop. And that includes the price cut as well doesn't it?... or am I mistaken)


And DS:
Jan - 128k
Feb - 147k
Mar - 113k (23% drop.... Pokemon slowing it's drop I guess)

PSP:
Jan - 43k
Feb - 50k
Mar - 34k (32% drop)



Zucas on 16 April 2009
Brett said:

Not as confusing as I do!

As I've explained many times - we get data, we extrapolate it, check it with other data then post it up on the site. I expect some differences with other tracking services - it's inevitable - but month after month I'm shocked with how the data NPD releases makes no sense and seems to yo-yo. Some months it is way higher than ours, other months way lower, and for no logical explanation!

Sure, no Easter this March, but that maybe has a 5-10% boost at best for the month. And with Halo Wars, Killzone 2, RE5, Pokemon Platinum etc hardware sales just nosedived? We see drops in our data Feb - March, as is normal, but not drops this big.

Yes it has been quite weird but NPD is not the gospel of course.  Shipment numbers before have shown them to be way off so yea. 

I think we are in a close enough range to them to be quite satisfied and even some of our numbers making more logic.  Of course I must remind everyone that tracking sales is the science of predicting human buying habits.  You just might get a yo-yo effect every now and then so it is hard to tell.  However, trends over time have shown there to be more method to the madness.  But most of that method can really be seen in the later months of the year towards holidays.  So it's quite possible these yo-yo things will happen but more than likely they will level themselves off to where it follows the normal trend.

 



Seece on 16 April 2009

Sony fanboys are going to cling to this thread like glue.

At the end of the day it comes down to whats more credible .... NPD or VGChartz ...



 

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Carl on 16 April 2009

Im super confused by the numbers after seeing everyone elses complaints

What i dont get is... with the amount of big name SW released, how could numbers for all systems be so low?



                            

Picko on 16 April 2009
TWRoO said:
Brett said:

Not as confusing as I do!

As I've explained many times - we get data, we extrapolate it, check it with other data then post it up on the site. I expect some differences with other tracking services - it's inevitable - but month after month I'm shocked with how the data NPD releases makes no sense and seems to yo-yo. Some months it is way higher than ours, other months way lower, and for no real reason!

I am at a loss as to why NPD thinks the videogame market has almost crashed in the last 5 weeks.

Wii:
Jan -  170k per week
Feb - 188k per week
Mar - 120k per week (36% drop)

PS3:
Jan -  50k per week
Feb - 69k per week
Mar - 43k per week (38% drop)

360:
Jan - 77k per week
Feb - 97k per week
Mar - 66k per week (32% drop)

What the hell?

Oh, and PS2:
Jan - 25k per week
Feb - 33k per week
Mar - 22k per week (33% drop. And that includes the price cut as well doesn't it?... or am I mistaken)


And DS:
Jan - 128k
Feb - 147k
Mar - 113k (23% drop.... Pokemon slowing it's drop I guess)

PSP:
Jan - 43k
Feb - 50k
Mar - 34k (32% drop)

 

 Are you sure you can't think of a single reason? There appears to be a pretty obvious one.



 
Debating with fanboys, its not
all that dissimilar to banging ones
head against a wall 
Egghead on 16 April 2009
Zucas said:
Brett said:

Not as confusing as I do!

As I've explained many times - we get data, we extrapolate it, check it with other data then post it up on the site. I expect some differences with other tracking services - it's inevitable - but month after month I'm shocked with how the data NPD releases makes no sense and seems to yo-yo. Some months it is way higher than ours, other months way lower, and for no logical explanation!

Sure, no Easter this March, but that maybe has a 5-10% boost at best for the month. And with Halo Wars, Killzone 2, RE5, Pokemon Platinum etc hardware sales just nosedived? We see drops in our data Feb - March, as is normal, but not drops this big.

Yes it has been quite weird but NPD is not the gospel of course.  Shipment numbers before have shown them to be way off so yea. 

I think we are in a close enough range to them to be quite satisfied and even some of our numbers making more logic.  Of course I must remind everyone that tracking sales is the science of predicting human buying habits.  You just might get a yo-yo effect every now and then so it is hard to tell.  However, trends over time have shown there to be more method to the madness.  But most of that method can really be seen in the later months of the year towards holidays.  So it's quite possible these yo-yo things will happen but more than likely they will level themselves off to where it follows the normal trend.

 

Yes and theres also something called overshipping =S

 



TWRoO on 16 April 2009
Picko said:

 Are you sure you can't think of a single reason? There appears to be a pretty obvious one.

Go on... enlighten me. Is Easter a holiday people wait to buy things in for America?

It can't be a recession thing, it didn't just suddenly happen on the 1st week of March.

 



slowmo on 16 April 2009
TWRoO said:
Brett said:

Not as confusing as I do!

As I've explained many times - we get data, we extrapolate it, check it with other data then post it up on the site. I expect some differences with other tracking services - it's inevitable - but month after month I'm shocked with how the data NPD releases makes no sense and seems to yo-yo. Some months it is way higher than ours, other months way lower, and for no real reason!

I am at a loss as to why NPD thinks the videogame market has almost crashed in the last 5 weeks.

Wii:
Jan -  170k per week
Feb - 188k per week
Mar - 120k per week (36% drop)

PS3:
Jan -  50k per week
Feb - 69k per week
Mar - 43k per week (38% drop)

360:
Jan - 77k per week
Feb - 97k per week
Mar - 66k per week (32% drop)

What the hell?

Oh, and PS2:
Jan - 25k per week
Feb - 33k per week
Mar - 22k per week (33% drop. And that includes the price cut as well doesn't it?... or am I mistaken)


And DS:
Jan - 128k
Feb - 147k
Mar - 113k (23% drop.... Pokemon slowing it's drop I guess)

PSP:
Jan - 43k
Feb - 50k
Mar - 34k (32% drop)

It does pose the question though as why the PS3 hasn't declined at the same rate the 360 and Wii has on the VGChartz data.  Even if they got the actual totals too low I doubt their market share is wrong (unless someone wants to make me look a complete fool showing them get it badly wrong recently).  This is what has confused many recently is the PS3 has been bucking a downward trend the other consoles haven't.