Right, so these same people always buy the latest hip stuff? Are they the ones that made the PS2 so hip then?  What other products have they made massively popular that I'm missing? 

If you honestly want to fall for that PR line about 10 year life cycles, enjoy the future dissapointment.   You'll see a new PS and Xbox system after 5-6 years on the market just like all standard console cycles.

I'm waiting for the DS and iPod fad to wear off. That way I can figure out how long the Wii fad is going to last.

 this is exactly why...

 nobody should even expect analysts to tell you what they really think.  fund managers are much better indicators, and plenty of analysts work for those guys and nobody will ever know what those analysts concluded.

dtewi report yourself for being a whiinnny biatch.

NO ONE expected the Wii to catch on like it did = a FAD that caught fire. when the Wii has to rely on its true hardcore Nintendo fanbase & very few good games from 3rd parties it will be back in the GC area

can anyone find some documented forcasts that predicted a 11/10/4.5 million split (Wii/360/PS3)heading into the '07 Christmas season...

He's not trolling. He has a valid argument, not one I agree with, but valid none the less.

This gen *is* far from over. Wii could not garner any 2008 support and die off. People will go where the games are, if PS3/360 buy all the exclusives and Wii only has Nintendo 1st party, there is a very good change it would fall off at the 25-30m mark.

This would mean the other 100m+ gamers out there would jump on PS3/360 and Wii would be a distant third.

I personally don't see that happening as from all that I have read there are plenty of games coming for Wii and every 3rd party pub I has stated they are bringing games and many times exclusives to Wii. So, in the end I still see Wii as a strong favored leader this gen.

Also, the PS3 won't last 9-10 years if it is not the gen leader. That is just a historical fact. Only the Generational leader lasts more than 6 or 7 years.

I think we've got a couple of good points here - one is that the analysts have their own agendas, I think the other is that a lot of them are just crunching pure numbers and going the "safe" route. Really, only Nintendo Fanboys and a handful of inspired nuts saw the Wii as a huge success prior to E3 2006, and even then most of us were skeptical.

Very long read. Describes how analysts have been doubting Nintendo/will continue to doubt Nintendo.

http://malstrom.50webs.com/risingcontinent.htm

If you are interested.

@dgm6780,

Iwata did.

Sorry then dgm6780, but this seems pretty illogical "Only so many grandma's, physical therapy clinics, soccer moms, and people who just got to have the latest fad will be buying Wii's"

^Ignorance.

so you think the Wii will be hot with grandma's and soccer moms (buying for themselves) in'08? '09??