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Forums - Sales Discussion - How did the industry Analysts get it so wrong!!!

nofosu on 12 September 2007


As of the last couple of days, I have been doing some research into, the predictions the analysts were making for the seventh generation of consoles. The buzz was that the Playstation 3 would come in first with the Wii in distant third. Here are a few of my favourite quotes

“The company sees the Nintendo Wii as almost a non-factor with only 23.3 million units sold through 2012.”

Oh this has got to be the best by the Yankee group

“The group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.”


I could be here quoting every thing the analysts said, but we will be here all night long. The truth is, these analysts have caused more harm than good, a lot of companies and investors paid them for their analysis of the industry, and were all giving wrong predictions. Many third parties took their word as gold, and rushed into producing software for these two behemoth HD machines, with out giving the Wii so much as glance, simply because they thought it would fail. The analysts defend their schmuck  analysis by saying

“No body could predict this success, not even Nintendo”

I call bull on that one, Nintendo knew it was going to happen, that’s the whole point of disruption. It is to become number one. 

“Finally, Iwata spoke on the Revolution's unique interface and if it would alienate third-party developers. 

"Well, of course, the idea is that the Revolution will sell and sell and sell so it becomes the standard in the industry," Iwata mused. "However, at least for the launch period, we designed the controller so it can play any of the different conventional styles. After all, we are talking about it playing games from our past machines (i.e. the virtual console). So don't worry." 
 
Here is a link to the full interveiw 
 

I would like to know what you guys think. Please this is not an issue with which console is better than the other, but is more about these so called industry analysts, like I said they have done a lot of damage, which unfortunately will lead to some developers/publishers coming close to being bankrupt.





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BrainBoxLtd on 12 September 2007

I'm going to take a wild guess and say these particular analysts merely looked at final tally from the 6th Generation and just predicted the same thing would happpen all over again.

 



Neos on 12 September 2007

you know God always does things people don't expect

Guess who is God.



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

azzer100 on 12 September 2007

The sad thing is that these people get paid to do this.

Who'd have thought the ps1 would win over the N64?

Who'd have thought the DS would be kicking the PSP's ass?

Some things you just cant predict, lifes more fun that way! :)



call me Aaronbunny!

Wii code: 6993 4542 2457 6182. plz add me Im a wiily gd friend

twesterm on 12 September 2007

Nintendo caught everyone with their pants down. They took a huge risk that could have really hurt them or got them where they are today. At first glance, it was the obvious choice to say anyone who takes a step back graphic power wise in a graphic driven industry would obviously spell doom but Nintendo knew exactly what they were doing and it's showing.



 

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Caey on 12 September 2007

I think no-one expected that Nintendo would do so great AND Sony would do so bad.

Oh well at least the PS3 will be out there for 400$ by the end of the year. In the long run Sony's failure (or huge miscalculation) will bring overall prices down. So it's always nice to have some competition, how easy they may be.



HappySqurriel on 12 September 2007

As an analyst (this includes armchair analysts) the best approach is to look at the past, gain perspective, and use history as a guide to predict the future.

The problem is that most analysts did not gain perspective on what had happened in the past and thus could not accurately predict the future. They saw the Playstation and PS2 as being popular because it had the Sony brand associated with it, and that they had large optical disc drives for their time and assumed that since the PS3 had these things it would be successful. The reality is that the Playstation and PS2 were so successful because they beat their main competition to market by a solid 18 months, only faced weak competition from Sega platforms and previous generation hardware, were affordable, and were targeted towards the more casual consumer rather than the dedicated gamer.

 



d21lewis on 12 September 2007

I think Nintendo's mistake of sticking with cartridges during the N64 era, and the "Purple Lunchbox" Gamecube image made the industry analists think that Nintendo didn't know what gamers wanted anymore. They seemed to forget that Nintendo was the company thay created the controller, standardised the analog stick, and force feedback in home consoles. The guys have been in the buisness for decades. They knew what they were doing.

At the same time, they forgot that the PSX & PS2 launched with abysmal marketing and no real competition or that Microsoft hasn't made nearly as many fans in the 5 year XBOX lifetime that Sony has made in their 10+ years of gaming, or Nintendo's 30+ years of experience. Long story short, nobody knew that nintendo was prepared to win a marathon, and not a sprint.



FishyJoe on 12 September 2007

One has to keep in mind that analysts don't necessarily predict the future so much as release information that works for their own interests.



TheBigFatJ on 12 September 2007

Even today there are still those who predict Sony will spectacularly recover and come back to be #1. Some people are even slower than others, I guess.