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Brawl vs. Halo 3, Predictions

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Legend11 said:
RolStoppable said:

Popular games will sell on the system they are released for. A higher userbase will guarantee higher software sales. It's absolutely reasonable to assume that these 3 Nintendo games will all outsell Halo 3 in the long run.

Really? So could you explain to me why Madden 08 is selling more on the 360 with a U.S. installed base of 6.9 million compared to the PS2 with a U.S. installed base of 44.8 million?


Because the PS2 Madden is already the 8th game of this series on the system and most people already own one or more Madden games for their PS2 and don't think the updated rosters are worth yet another purchase of essentially the same game.

The 360 got the 3rd Madden game and it's actually the first version of the game which has got all features of the 6th generation installments. Also, I think it's the first time the game runs with 60 fps on the 360 so the improvements in graphics and content definitely justify a purchase more than another Madden for the PS2 does.

Also because this is the only paragraph of my post you chose to respond to I assume you agreed with the rest of my arguments.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Halo 3 will sell more first month than SSBB but after a year I think they'll be fairly even. That being said, neither are going to come close to Super Mario Galaxy lifetime sells.



naznatips said:
MontanaHatchet said:
No offense, but the whole, "Brawl will sell more in the long term" is a bunch of crap. No matter how well the Wii sells, Brawl can't even begin to touch Halo's strength.

Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros has never been amazingly strong in Japan, although it does sell quite well, and manages to have long legs.

Super Mario Galaxy, maybe. Brawl? No chance.

Halo's strength? Well, let's take a look at that shall we. First, I'll paste the numbers for some quick reference:

NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Super Smash Bros MeleeNintendo1.444.061.086.58
Totals (1 matches)1.44.11.16.6
NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Halo 2Microsoft0.116.491.678.27
HaloMicrosoft0.104.911.426.43
Totals (2 matches)0.211.43.114.7

 

Super Smash Bros Melee outsold Halo.

You said Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros. has never been amazingly strong in Japan, but that's just freaking ridiculous. 110,000 units is not somewhat well, it's complete shit. 1.44 million units is amazingly well. Lets look at some other games that have sold less than that in Japan:

Kingdom Hearts 1 and 2 sold 1.16 and 1.24 million respectively.
Metal Gear Solid 3 sold .86 million in Japan.
Everybody's Golf 3 sold 1.39 million in Japan.

All of these examples were on a system with more than 5 times the userbase of the Gamecube in Japan. There were only 4.02 million Gamecubes sold in Japan in it's lifetime. That's a 35% lifetime regional attach rate, which is nothing short of incredible. It's ridiculous to not say that's amazingly strong.

 

Now lets move on to the total sales. Of course there is the looming beast of Halo 2, which managed to outsell Super Smash Bros. Melee by 1.69 million units. This sounds like a lot, but lets break it down a bit more:

Super Smash Bros. Melee was released on the Gamecube as a launch title. This means that all of it's sales were based off pretty much nothing but its legs. It powered it's way to the end of the Gamecube's life with strong legs.

Halo 2 was released on the Xbox on November 9th, 2004. Prior to it's release, the Xbox had sold 17.34 million consoles according to the latest fiscal reports (filed in September). So, with 17.34 million consoles, Halo 2 was able to pull off 2.5 million units sold in it's first week in America. In the next 3 weeks Halo sold 735,000 followed by 377,000 followed by 293,000 units. Within it's first month on the market, Halo 2 had sold more than half of it's total lifetime sales, again on a console with 17.5 million units already out there when it launched.

The Gamecube sold 21.59 million copies worldwide in it's life. The Xbox sold 24.76 million copies in it's life. This gives Super Smash Bros. Melee an attach rate of 30.5% and Halo 2 an attach rate of 33.4%. Not a whole lot of difference when you look at it like that is there? Oh, and remember, we are talking about a launch title vs a game that was launched when the Xbox had already sold 75% of it's lifetime sales.

In review, you are saying there is no chance of Brawl surpassing Halo 3, when Melee already outsold Halo (a fellow launch title), and barely did worse than Halo 2 in lifetime attach rate, when Halo 2 was released 3/4 of the way through the Xbox's very short life. To add to that, Halo 3 is being released on the 360 when it has only sold 11 million units worldwide, wheras Brawl is going to be released on the Wii (if sales remain the way they are) when the Wii has sold 14 million units worldwide. The gap between the systems in sales will continue to widen throughout their lifespans as well. Considering that Smash Bros. is a series with huge legs, this can only benefit it, and can only hurt Halo, a very top-heavy game.


lol darn! you beat me to the charts. I was gonna elaborate but you did it before me. Awesome job.



@legend11: Halo 3 will be sold in september, when sales of videogames are not that great (and it will sell great becuase of name recognition). Brawl goes for sale in DECEMBER the holy gril of videogame sales, add that to the fact that SSBBwill feature most recognizable characters from nintendo and some of the 3rd parties. This game is going to sell shitloads of copies this december, they are going to sell as much as they put on shelves, I just want to see how much they stock the stores. Thats their ceiling.
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The first mont in America is will be close since Brawl realeses in holiday season it would give a launch boost



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Firstly, I don't think Halo is going to sell as well as some people think. Sure, it'll sell alot on the first day, and be the 360's best selling game, but when you compare it to Halo 2 the truth is it shouldn't get anywhere near the 8 million that did.

Halo 2 had a userbase of 25 million users, on a console which reatailed at $150, with very little competition. Whereas Halo 3 is on a console with half as many owners, retailing at $350 and a whole host of rival FPS's and games in other genres.

On the other hand, Smash Bro's looks set to be in a much better position to increase it's sales from the previous version. The userbase is growing rapidly and will exceed GameCube's total before the end of 2008 I think that alone should help carry it. We can't yet tell if Nintendo will push Smash Bro's as much as they should through advertising though, but the website looks like it's a probable situation.

So I'm with the majority, Halo 3 initually but Smash Bro's will sell better over it's life time.



I liked Halo, only because of the fact that you don't need to give a damn about ammo conservation because there is a new gun off of every enemy that you kill. Beyond that, the levels were repedetive, its like they copied and pasted every level from the previous one and then dressed it up with a different background.

I am not gonna pretend to know which one of them will sell better, but I will say that I GUARANTEE YOU that Brawl will make ALOT more money than Halo 3.



DarkD: I dont know about the money making thing... I know Brawl will be cheaper to produce, but halo will retail for 10 dollars more. if they both ended selling the same (7 million+) that would be an extra 70 million dollars for Halo3 which would easily cover the development and marketing costs.



i'm gonna throw in super mario galaxy too cuz thats gonna sell like crazy too. both games along with super mario galaxy are gonna sell millions and millions. i wouldn't be surprised to see them all over 10 million worldwide at the end of each system's lifespan. launch week halo 3 will outsell them, maybe like 3 million? while i see ssbb and smg selling more like 500-800 the first week. i say halo 3 might be up around 5 million by the end of the year while ssbb and smg are both around 2 million. next year though the mario games will be catching up and possibly by end of '08 halo 3 around 8 million, ssbb 6-7million, smg 6-7million. in the end i could see halo 3 at 10-12 million, smg 12-14 million, ssbb 13 - 15 billion. then again i also wouldn't be surprised if by the time wii gets up to about 80 or 90 million consoles sold to see both games close to 20 million. i can't wait to get all 3 this fall!



end of '08 predictions: wii - 43 million,  360 - 25 million, ps3 - 20 million

 

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jammy2211 said:
Firstly, I don't think Halo is going to sell as well as some people think. Sure, it'll sell alot on the first day, and be the 360's best selling game, but when you compare it to Halo 2 the truth is it shouldn't get anywhere near the 8 million that did.

Halo 2 had a userbase of 25 million users, on a console which reatailed at $150, with very little competition. Whereas Halo 3 is on a console with half as many owners, retailing at $350 and a whole host of rival FPS's and games in other genres.

On the other hand, Smash Bro's looks set to be in a much better position to increase it's sales from the previous version. The userbase is growing rapidly and will exceed GameCube's total before the end of 2008 I think that alone should help carry it. We can't yet tell if Nintendo will push Smash Bro's as much as they should through advertising though, but the website looks like it's a probable situation.

So I'm with the majority, Halo 3 initually but Smash Bro's will sell better over it's life time.

.....Are you kidding me? Halo 2 came out in 2004. The current amount of Xbox owners, as of right now, is only 24 million. Even with rounding, how could the Xbox have had the same amount of users 3 years ago?

How?

It didn't.