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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sonic & The Secret Rings Sales in Japan

y-koron on 16 March 2007

Monorojo said: Thanks for translating. Is Japan in a slump or something? None of those numbers seem good.
I don't know why, but I have some predictions. Many people tend not to use money for their hobby in March because March is the season of graduation, admittions and employment. Some people needs to relocate to other place and the relocation needs a lot of money(some case, more than 100k yen. about 1000$). So, in this season, the consumption for hobby tends to be low.



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Erik Aston on 16 March 2007

Ouch for Sonic. Though that 80,000 is a lot better than 60,000... But 5K in Japan is awful... We'll have to see how it does in Europe. It'll have to do probably 700,000 to put 1 million back in the equation... But given the WW breakdown of Sonic Rush sales, that might not be as unrealistic as you think... Sonic Rush Japan: 60,000 Americas: 470,000 Europe: 960,000 Rayman on the other hand... Still looks on pace for 1 million I think... US sales up to 375K, and it could do another 40-50K in March...



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hanafuda on 16 March 2007

The Wii honeymoon is over in Japan. Sales of the hardware are down week over week. Why? Three reasons. 1) The Wii user base is all over the place, and Nintendo (and to some extent, third parties) don't know what to do about it. 2) Too few games, and what is being released is either too shallow, doesn't fit the user base (Fire Emblem), or is just plain old crud. Certainly nothing resembling a killer app. 3) Wii Sports. We've seen it. We've played it. Next please. Super Paper Mario will give the system a boost for a few weeks, but I predict that will be short-term. After that? Well, looks at the release schedule and judge for yourselves.



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TheSource on 16 March 2007

Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Galaxy, Brawl, Dragon Quest Swords should be boosts for 2-3 weeks each..That is 10-15 weeks of boosting...plus higher holiday sales regardless for Golden Week and December. So perhaps 20 weeks of boosts through the end of the year? That is more then enough with only about 38 weeks left in the year...



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hanafuda on 16 March 2007

TheSource said: Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Galaxy, Brawl, Dragon Quest Swords should be boosts for 2-3 weeks each..That is 10-15 weeks of boosting...plus higher holiday sales regardless for Golden Week and December. So perhaps 20 weeks of boosts through the end of the year? That is more then enough with only about 38 weeks left in the year...
Well, some of the games you have mentioned there should sell well, but others? I have my doubts. Plus, with the exception of Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros, I don't see system sellers. Big Brain Academy I think there could be a big upset here. The majority of people that play this on the DS are adults, and I think the DS is a far better platform for it than the Wii. Parents may have big plans to get this and rope their kids in for some educational fun, but I don't see it working. Mario Party 8 I think this will be a big seller. It has multiplayer, Mario, and fun for all the family. I can't see it shifting much hardware though. At the end of the day, we have all seen and done it before. Mario Galaxy No release date yet. I think Nintendo are really lost with this project to be honest. It deserves a thread of its own. Smash Bros Again, no release date. This should be a strong software seller, and possibly a killer app to sell hardware if they do it right. Is still a big unknown at this time though. Dragon Quest Swords A 1 player flailathon with the Wiimote. It will sell a lot initially based on the brand alone, but I smell an upset here too.



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stewacide on 16 March 2007

hanafuda said: The Wii honeymoon is over in Japan. Sales of the hardware are down week over week.
Isn't the Wii still totally sold-out in Japan? i.e. any sales fluctuations are simply what Nintendo is able to deliver that week?



Busaiku on 17 March 2007

hanafuda said: The Wii honeymoon is over in Japan. Sales of the hardware are down week over week. Why? Three reasons. 1) The Wii user base is all over the place, and Nintendo (and to some extent, third parties) don't know what to do about it. 2) Too few games, and what is being released is either too shallow, doesn't fit the user base (Fire Emblem), or is just plain old crud. Certainly nothing resembling a killer app. 3) Wii Sports. We've seen it. We've played it. Next please. Super Paper Mario will give the system a boost for a few weeks, but I predict that will be short-term. After that? Well, looks at the release schedule and judge for yourselves.
I'm thinking it is most likely due to shortages. Nintendo has been set to ship 6 million worldwide by the end of March, and between the NA and JPN, it's probably already more than 4 million between them. And there are also the PAL regions. I'd say wait till around early/mid-April to really determine the status of demand. If the numbers continue to decline even then, it most likely is the lack of demand. But according to most reports as of now, it seems to be lack of supply.



Louie on 17 March 2007

hanafuda said: TheSource said: Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Galaxy, Brawl, Dragon Quest Swords should be boosts for 2-3 weeks each..That is 10-15 weeks of boosting...plus higher holiday sales regardless for Golden Week and December. So perhaps 20 weeks of boosts through the end of the year? That is more then enough with only about 38 weeks left in the year... Well, some of the games you have mentioned there should sell well, but others? I have my doubts. Plus, with the exception of Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros, I don't see system sellers. Big Brain Academy I think there could be a big upset here. The majority of people that play this on the DS are adults, and I think the DS is a far better platform for it than the Wii. Parents may have big plans to get this and rope their kids in for some educational fun, but I don't see it working. Mario Party 8 I think this will be a big seller. It has multiplayer, Mario, and fun for all the family. I can't see it shifting much hardware though. At the end of the day, we have all seen and done it before. Mario Galaxy No release date yet. I think Nintendo are really lost with this project to be honest. It deserves a thread of its own. Smash Bros Again, no release date. This should be a strong software seller, and possibly a killer app to sell hardware if they do it right. Is still a big unknown at this time though. Dragon Quest Swords A 1 player flailathon with the Wiimote. It will sell a lot initially based on the brand alone, but I smell an upset here too.
You´re absolutly right with what you said to all the games but honestly: NOTHING is over just because you don´t have a killer app every week. This is annoying, really annoying - everytime someone sees a system failing because it has a short lack of games I´d like to be Homer and the other guy Bart ("why you little..") The PS3 will start selling as soon as Final Fantasy and Metal Gear come out (if they are not too late of course) and the 360 will still sell strong next year because of the lot of A titles on the systems. And the Wii is still selling good and the numbers will increase as soon as Galaxy and Brawl are out. The Wii doesn´t have a system seller soon that´s true. But there are still ganes coming out every week. If we use this logic every system in the past would have failed... and especially the DS because it sold bad it´s first year. Look at the PSP, it is selling much in Japan since 2007 began. Just because of one killer app. And Final Fantasy is coming and will boost system sales, too.



Arbiter on 17 March 2007

You know, Sonic & The Secret Rings is listed on the video game prediction market: http://www.thesimexchange.com/stock.php?id=116 The prediction is currently going at 860,000 copies globally (its been falling). If you think that is too low, you buy up the game's stock. If you think that is too high, you short the game's stock. If you don't know about the simExchange yet, its the video game prediciton market (http://www.thesimexchange.com). It is free to play and there's no money involved. You just sign up and you get a million DKP to start trading.



stof on 17 March 2007

hanafuda said: Big Brain Academy I think there could be a big upset here. The majority of people that play this on the DS are adults, and I think the DS is a far better platform for it than the Wii. Parents may have big plans to get this and rope their kids in for some educational fun, but I don't see it working. Mario Party 8 I think this will be a big seller. It has multiplayer, Mario, and fun for all the family. I can't see it shifting much hardware though. At the end of the day, we have all seen and done it before. Mario Galaxy No release date yet. I think Nintendo are really lost with this project to be honest. It deserves a thread of its own. Smash Bros Again, no release date. This should be a strong software seller, and possibly a killer app to sell hardware if they do it right. Is still a big unknown at this time though. Dragon Quest Swords A 1 player flailathon with the Wiimote. It will sell a lot initially based on the brand alone, but I smell an upset here too.
Hanafunda, so far your your citicisms of Brain Academy, Mario Party, Mario Galaxy and Dragon Quest Swords are based purely on your pre concieved notion of what the game will be. There's no reason to believe that Brain Academy will be exactly the same as it's DS companion. Infact, the videos suggest an emphasis on multiplayer (battle of the wits). As for the Wii Userbase, it looks like it'll soon resemble the DS userbase. And in Japan, that means everybody. Mario Party 8 - Check the Japanese Game Cube game sales and you'll notice that the Mario Party series was Nintendo's money maker. Did sales decline with multiple releases? yes. But the Wii's going to change the game experience, so no, people haven't seen and done it before. I think this one will be huge in Japan. Mario Galaxy - You think Nintendo is lost on this project? what are you talking about? Every indication is that it's Mario's grand return to form. It'll be the kind of system seller that Mario 64 was. Dragon Quest Swords - The brand is bigger than final fantasy, and previews seem really positive. I actually think it's going to be the biggest sellers on the Wii in Japan. So where were we? Oh yes, Sonic. It will probably do quite well in Europe and NA, while achieving modest sales in Japan.



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