I think the question is whether they will produce a lot of copies and stagger the distribution. Maybe release 500,000 in week one and another 300,000 for week 2 and so forth.

I'd also like to point this out:

Gamecube sales the week before Sunshine: 9k

During Sunshine week: 28k

Sales stayed above 10,000 (roughly 2002 rate) from Sunshine's July release through the week ending October 13 - never dipping below 11,700 (30% higher than the pre-Sunshine week) once.  Part of this is seasonal changes, but most of it is due to Sunshine, Phantasy Star Online and Star Fox Adventures.  Still, a 35% boost on average over 3 months is pretty significant. 

When Galaxy launches, it will be supported by, Zack and Wiki, Wii Fit, Nights? (no date), Smash Brothers Brawl? (no date announced, but I think it will arrive in late Nov), Soul Calibur Legends, Opoona, Umbrella Chronicles, Mario and Sonic at the Olympics (no date) and other titles previously released (Strikers, Mario Party 8, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Dragon Quest Swords, etc).

My point is, if Wii saw a similar boost from Galaxy...sales would increase from 40k (if that is the rate sales are going to stay at for now) to 124k or.  In theory, if sales increased again to 65k weeks for Wii, I think the Wii's elite six sellers (i.e. top selling titles) - Wii Sports, Wii Play, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Wii Fit and Soul Calibur Legends could easily push it into a 200k week or two in November.

My thinking is Wii will see 50,000 in hardware sales most weeks until Galaxy releases.  But then November arrives, and sales become ~1.5x to ~2.0x stronger than October.  So, a 50k week x 1.5 mario x 1.3 November boost is what I set as see as minimal Wii sales - ~98k - for Galaxy launch week.  In reality though, Sunshine tripled sales in week one, so up to 225k might be possible in November.  

I'd stake my guess at 150k for Galaxy launch week simply because of the confirmed supporting software that arrives within a week of Galaxy (Opoona, Zack and Wiki, Umbrella Chronicles) 

IGN.com has it that Nights is releasing day after Galaxy (i.e. Nov. 13).

Sega's official site says "Fall 2007" ( http://www.sega.com/games/game_temp.php?game=nights&id=nights_hp_mpb )

Even www.sega-europe.com says "Winter 2007", which could possibly mean very early 2008 depending on whether Sega tends to screw Europe as much as everyone else.

I'm only talking Japan.

Nights and Brawl have no release date for Japan.

i think 567,000 week one. no deep analysis behind it. just the first number that came to mind.

Oh, right. Well, I don't know enough Japanese to make sense of their website, but Wikipedia says it's Winter 2007 for them too.

many good game for wii in the coming year end....

Bioharzard UC
Super mario galaxy,
Nights,
Brawl,
Mario & Sonic at the Olympics

Maybe around 850-900k. It may seem alot but it's mario so :p

Seems like the conversation evolved from a software sales to hardware sales discussion.

I think we could a pretty big range (ie 135k-250k) Wii units moved just in the launch week, but if I had to narrow it down to a guess I would probably go around 185k.  I suppose it could be more if X-mas numbers are big accrossed the board this year but we shall see.

@TheSource

You create such great sales threads I make it a point to read each one and this is another one I appreciate.

I think 750k is realistic, but at the same time this thing is going to have legs like a supermodel. Japan doesn't have a true love for Zelda as much and it has shown in DS sales, but Mario continues to sell well on both the DS, in the form of NSMB, and on the Wii as well with Mario party 8. This is garunteed to be a huge hit in Japan if it is a good game [I think it will be unreal fantastic, far beyond good]. Mario is still strong there and the Wii is also strong. I don't think Wii games tend to be as front heavy, but they usually go week after week in the top 20. Much like the DS games, Nintendo is good at making games that people want to keep purchasing. So not the best first week sales. Possibly up to 1mil the first week, but first week actually isnt the most important to Ninty.

SMG is going to do great in Japan and maybe even record numbers, but for that to happen it doesn't need to break first week sales. This game will just have to prove itself during the holiday season in Japan and that will be the true test. If this game has sold 3 mil by the end of the year, it is on its way to doing fantastic. I have big hopes for the game and if they live up to them, then I do hope that big numbers come with that in time also.