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Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

fagarcia75 said:
Nintendo makes quality products. Their systmes, controllers, and accesseries typically last and don't break. If Wii's were produced and made like Sony's PS2, then everyone who owns a wii would have to buy one or two more to replace their broken piece of crap wiis.

If that happened (which it won't becuase Nintendo makes quality hardware and accesseries), the Wii would sell double the current install base of the PS2 by 2010. lol.


 I have never known anyone that ha shad to replace a Nintendo product.  I still have a working, original 89 (?) GameBoy, as well as an original 1987 (?) NES.  While I still play the NES (mostly Dr. Mario, Mario 3, Duck Hunt and TMNT) the Gameboy is more of a shelf item.  But it still turns on and plays.

 

I have had every Nintendo product, excluding the DS and Advance/Pocket since the originals and have never had any one of them even hiccup, it would seem.

 

I'm on my third PS2.  Both previous ones I've had stopped reading discs - extremely annoying.  But you can't not buy another PS2 because you'll waste your $500 worth of actual games on hand.  Lovely renewal investment, and feeds Sony's numbers. 



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.

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@MusicAddict911

see post by facher83



Final-Fan said:
I think that you are heavily overestimating the amount of failed PS2s. From what I understand, the number of failures was (unlike the 360) unfortunately high but still within industry standards. Let's say 3-5%. (That's 1 in every 20, certainly enough to make for a lot of complaints!) And this is NOT 3-5% of 120 million; it's 3-5% of the early-model PS2s -- maybe the first 10-20 million. 5% of 20 million = 1 million.

120 million sold becomes 119 million sold OH NOES!~

And do you honestly think the Wii is likely to get smaller? Nintendo has a long history of updating their handhelds and not their main consoles; I expect this trend to continue.


Updating their handhelds means they update hardware regardless.  You seem to state this as a means to suggest Wii will not be updated, but I can only see that as being for updating.  Management at Nintendo has been quite a bit different since N64/GameCube.

 

Nintendo has a new president since the GCN release.  Yes, I can see that trend changing.

 

My question would be, where has Sony released factual evidence on how many units fail?   If we go by my personal experience, 2 of my 3 have died, but beyond warranty.  Not to mention, Sony had a lawsuit against them forcing them to replace units.  That's a nice record to have.

 

 By the way , 5% of 120 million is 6 million, not 1.. I honestly see the figure more like 40% replacement when you consider double-buys, people who bought a slim that already have an original, actual replacements due to failures, etc.  My figure, 40% (pulled out of the air just as credible as yours) puts PS2 at actual sales of 72 million.  This stat would compare to NES life time sales.



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.

facher83 said:

Final-Fan said:
I think that you are heavily overestimating the amount of failed PS2s. From what I understand, the number of failures was (unlike the 360) unfortunately high but still within industry standards. Let's say 3-5%. (That's 1 in every 20, certainly enough to make for a lot of complaints!) And this is NOT 3-5% of 120 million; it's 3-5% of the early-model PS2s -- maybe the first 10-20 million. 5% of 20 million = 1 million.

120 million sold becomes 119 million sold OH NOES!~

And do you honestly think the Wii is likely to get smaller? Nintendo has a long history of updating their handhelds and not their main consoles; I expect this trend to continue.


Updating their handhelds means they update hardware regardless. You seem to state this as a means to suggest Wii will not be updated, but I can only see that as being for updating. Management at Nintendo has been quite a bit different since N64/GameCube.

Nintendo has a new president since the GCN release. Yes, I can see that trend changing.

My question would be, where has Sony released factual evidence on how many units fail? If we go by my personal experience, 2 of my 3 have died, but beyond warranty. Not to mention, Sony had a lawsuit against them forcing them to replace units. That's a nice record to have.

By the way , 5% of 120 million is 6 million, not 1.. I honestly see the figure more like 40% replacement when you consider double-buys, people who bought a slim that already have an original, actual replacements due to failures, etc. My figure, 40% (pulled out of the air just as credible as yours) puts PS2 at actual sales of 72 million. This stat would compare to NES life time sales.


You have a point that PS2s that failed after 3 or 4 years would not have raised a big stink but still added to the sales total. However, I think it's very unlikely that a large percentage of people who had still-functional PS2s would have said, "whoops, time to upgrade!" when the PStwo came out.

And I resent the accusation that I pulled my numbers totally out of my ass, as you so obviously did yours -- especially when you've just proven that you didn't actually read my post. You could have questioned my premises, but you didn't. You just ignored my logic.

And speaking of unfounded assumptions, why do you believe that 'new management = new Wii'? There is no reason to believe that that you have shared with the rest of us, other than your theory regarding handhelds, and you did nothing to rebut my counterargument there.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

If you can back up your own theories only then can you criticize another's theory just as sloppily conjured.

Why don't you believe that new management does not = new Wii? If you can present an actual argument, not a shouting match that contains no data, reasonings, or actual counters other than saying your fake numbers are better than my fake numbers, maybe we'll get some where.

How many DS owners bought a DS Lite and have a DS 'normal' laying around? I can speculate 5% of the owners have double-bought while you can just as easily state 80% have, and we'd both be about as close as anyone else is: who knows?

Nobody at Fred Meyer asks the consumer if they are buying a replacement, an upgrade, or if they are keeping the old product. Sony's numbers even include replacement units. Nintendo only goes on sales, not including replacement units. Everyone already knows this.

If I have no apple for 5 years, and I am given an apple, I may or may not eat the apple. Nobody really knows if I'll touch the apple or not. No reasoning by any magnitude can suggest I won't eat the apple because I've never touched an apple in 5 years - it has no weight anywhere. Just as much as saying 5% of the first 20 million were replaced, or better yet that 100% of the first 30 million units were replaced under warranty or not. We just don't get those figures.

And honestly, upgrading your technology is more frequent than a glass of coffee. People upgrade cell phones, computers, cars, TVs, all the time, because they can, not because they need to. Because it's 'cool'. If you can afford to buy an upgrade once, you can afford to buy another upgrade yet again.

My room mate gave me my current PS2. He has another newer PS2, as well as a PS2 slim, sitting in his room still today. I refused to pay for another. But, that's 5 sales between the two of us (my first broke, bought another off a neighbor for $25, and inherited my room mate's old one). My other room mate, recently married, has one as well. That puts 3 consumers at achieving 6 console sales overall.

I really have no other facts to present for hardware realities other than my immediate household has 3 users, and overall 6 consoles - that doesn't include the source of one of them, whose original owner might just have another PS2 himself.



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.

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I think the Wii is going to have a hard time beating the PS2. Last generation, the PS2 had no competition, and left the competitors in the dust. While this generation there is more of a race. I think that it will end up selling really well around the 100 million mark, but passing the PS2 is going to be hard... we are going to have to wait and see. So I think it is a possibility, anything is possible at this point, but for now I would have to say no. The DS on the other hand definitely has a good chance though.



Currently Playing: Mario Kart 7, Mario Kart 8, Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon, The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask, Super Smash Bros for Wii U

Predictions:

Super Mario Galaxy will pass Super Mario 64 in total sales CORRECT!

The wording of the title here seems to be intentionally precise and should be noted as such.

There is a big difference between saying it's a realistic possibility and saying it's likely. Witeout said the former. Here is my opinion on the matter:

1) Anyone saying that this isn't a realistic possibility is being silly. Obviously, if a system has outsold the PS2's track record for 10 months, it's realistically possible that it will continue to do so for years.  Yes, it's absolutely within the realm of possibility.

2) Anyone saying that it's likely the Wii will pass the PS2 is probably jumping the gun. There simply isn't enough data collected yet to reach any firm conclusions, and too many variables are still in play. 

3) Anyone saying it's a sure thing is a troll.  



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Wrong Thread... I give up, trying to post from work.  Argh.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

facher83 said:
If you can back up your own theories only then can you criticize another's theory just as sloppily conjured.

That's exactly what I said to you. I didn't do a scientific study or take polls of people in retail at the time (Bodhesatva?) but I did give reasons why I thought my numbers were reasonable. You pulled a failure rate higher than the 360's straight out of your ass and threw the stinking thing at me with no explanation at all. So I am offended that you choose to lecture me on sloppy conjecture. 

facher83 said:
Why don't you believe that new management does not = new Wii?

I DO believe that. Anyway, Nintendo has not to date done a significant hardware revision of a home console. You say that this time they will. My evidence is history. You are the one who needs to produce an actual reason why they would do what you say they will. 

facher83 said:
If you can present an actual argument, not a shouting match that contains no data, reasonings, or actual counters other than saying your fake numbers are better than my fake numbers, maybe we'll get some where.

You're really being over-defensive here. I have not shouted at you. There is little data available to either of us. I have given my reasoning. My fake numbers ARE better than yours, because they have detailed, stated reasoning behind them. Again, YOU are the one with the greater burden of proof, because YOU are the one saying something new will happen. I am saying that nothing new will happen. 

facher83 said:
How many DS owners bought a DS Lite and have a DS 'normal' laying around? I can speculate 5% of the owners have double-bought while you can just as easily state 80% have, and we'd both be about as close as anyone else is: who knows?

Maybe what you're failing to grasp here is that not all guesses are created equal. 5% is a reasonable number, especially taking into account the number of people buying used DSes (that the double-buyer sold off) that they would otherwise have bought new. I think 5% might actually be low, because the DS Lite actually has different and better hardware (backlighting being the most obvious). But 80% is an incredible number that would require actual data for people to believe it, where they would take the 5% guess as reasonable without backup.

facher83 said:

Nobody at Fred Meyer asks the consumer if they are buying a replacement, an upgrade, or if they are keeping the old product. Sony's numbers even include replacement units. Nintendo only goes on sales, not including replacement units. Everyone already knows this.

That is interesting information which I was unaware of. That would substantially impact the numbers, but there is no way it is anywhere close to 40%. Since Sony counts numbers that Nintendo doesn't, 10% is easily believable, and 15% wouldn't be too out there. 

facher83 said:
If I have no apple for 5 years, and I am given an apple, I may or may not eat the apple. Nobody really knows if I'll touch the apple or not. No reasoning by any magnitude can suggest I won't eat the apple because I've never touched an apple in 5 years - it has no weight anywhere. Just as much as saying 5% of the first 20 million were replaced, or better yet that 100% of the first 30 million units were replaced under warranty or not. We just don't get those figures.

Your apple example makes absolutely no sense to me with regard to the subject at hand. What does it have to do with what we are discussing? And, to clarify, I figured that it was 3-5% ABOVE normal (Nintendo) failure rates. Again, 5% is a reasonable number you might disagree with; 100% is an insane number you are making up with no regard for reality. This is a major obstacle to rational discussion, ESPECIALLY when, as you say, the true figures are unavailable. 

facher83 said:
And honestly, upgrading your technology is more frequent than a glass of coffee. People upgrade cell phones, computers, cars, TVs, all the time, because they can, not because they need to. Because it's 'cool'. If you can afford to buy an upgrade once, you can afford to buy another upgrade yet again.

Yeah, the difference is that they buy something NEW. Not the same damn car but with no sunroof (no HDD bay). Most people replace cell phones and computers because the technology is advancing; they buy other stuff because the fashion is changing. How many times have you replaced your DVD player because the new models are so much cooler? 

facher83 said:
My room mate gave me my current PS2. He has another newer PS2, as well as a PS2 slim, sitting in his room still today. I refused to pay for another. But, that's 5 sales between the two of us (my first broke, bought another off a neighbor for $25, and inherited my room mate's old one). My other room mate, recently married, has one as well. That puts 3 consumers at achieving 6 console sales overall.

Now take away all the ones you got used that you wouldn't have been willing to buy new. Because they aren't sales that matter to Sony's numbers. If a PS2 goes through two dozen people like an STD, that's not 24 sales, it's one, at least to Sony. And in any case no one I know is like that with consoles. Anecdotes mean even less than the numbers we make up, unless you have dozens of anecdotes or poorly-thought-out numbers. 

facher83 said:
I really have no other facts to present for hardware realities other than my immediate household has 3 users, and overall 6 consoles - that doesn't include the source of one of them, whose original owner might just have another PS2 himself.

If this is the experience you've had, I understand how that perspective might lead you to believe that the PS2's sales numbers are grossly exaggerated. But even then, only one of the consoles actually broke. So only one console too many is being counted by Sony. Your roommate is Sony's favorite customer, because he buys from it so much. Maybe some Mario Kart fanatic is going to buy 4 Wiis if the 16-player WiFi rumor turns out to be true. I don't see the relevance. Your roommate bought 2 PS2s -- was it because the second IDENTICAL SYSTEM was somehow more fashionable? I doubt it, although I cheerfully admit to total ignorance as to the actual reason. Given that history, how can you say that he bought the third just because the slim model came out? Maybe it was just time for #3 for him.

Now I'm just making crap up, but you get my point: Anecdotes mean nothing without some kind of reason why they should matter. Are you arguing that lots of PS2 owners have bought 3 of them, giving an artificially high estimate of the userbase? That is a different argument from the one you were presenting earlier (lots of PS2s break, and the necessary replacements give an artificially high estimate of the userbase). If you are making this new argument, I would not really be able to argue with it, not having any idea what goes on in the head of the average PS2 fan, except to say that I doubt very much that your friend is representative.

 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

BenKenobi88 said:
grandmaster192 said:
ZZetaAlec said:
^???

How am suspose to answer "???"?


 He said "???" because your post made absolutely no sense.  No offense if English isn't your native tongue, but it does not make sense. 

Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense!


 



Leo-j said: If a dvd for a pc game holds what? Crysis at 3000p or something, why in the world cant a blu-ray disc do the same?

ssj12 said: Player specific decoders are nothing more than specialized GPUs. Gran Turismo is the trust driving simulator of them all. 

"Why do they call it the xbox 360? Because when you see it, you'll turn 360 degrees and walk away"