kn said: WiteoutKing said: I won't repost my whole sig (it would be pointless), but after crunching the numbers for the last two weeks, I would like to direct people's attention to the last few bits about the Wii crossing the PS2. Particularly this part:  Not a chance in hell.  The PS(2), when it came out, was graphically quite powerful given the technology of the generation.  Also included was the strong support of EA not to mention the DVD player inside it than many bought for having that as well.  The Wii, while innovative, does not have anything in it that is "cutting edge" and therefore isn't going to have the same shelf life. The bottom line is that the Wii probably has a 4-5 year shelf life tops and I highly expect it will hit, at max, 50% of the lifetime sales of the PS2.

The first generation PS2 games were graphically inferior to the second generation Dreamcast which was already cheaper and the Dreamcast alos support online out of the box.

The shelf life of the PS2 has nothing to do with it being a graphical power house. If that were the case the XBOX would still be kicking instead the shelf life has more to do with the benefits of winning the generation a large library that is able to entice  value shoppers. The SNES had insane final legs outselling the PS1 for many months before it finally faded first in japan and second in America. Also the NES didn't die when the Genesis came out even with both the Master system and Genesis being far more powerful than the NES. The PS1 even hung in there against both the Dreamcast at 199 and the PS2 at first. The PS2 leapfrogged the PS1 because of BC and intergrated DVD player though.

If the Wii wins this generation than it will have longer than a four year lifespan. While the next gen consoles are being introduced the Wii will be selling to the bargain basement crowd at 79 dollars and limping with 100K a month sales enough for third parties to justify contiuing to create Wii games for a bit longer.

 

The one valid point you make is the support of EA and otehr 3rd parties for the PS2 the Wii does not have that out of the box but you are deluding yourself if that won't happen if the Wii is hte first to make 30 million while the other consoles are struggling to get to 10 and 18 million user bases.

 

I don't think the Wii will pass the PS2 in Lifetime sales but it is possible and more likely than either the 360 or PS3 which are likely to have 4-5 year life cycles themselves. Right now both the PS3 and the 360 are tracking roughly the same as the XBOX. I would predict a final LTD ofn 30 million for each of them. 

 

NorthStar said: I doubt it. The race will be much closer this time than last. It seems almost pointless to argue as well. In sports terms debating wether someone will be in the "Hall of Fame" after they played in their first half of the season. for the Wii to pass the PS2 the number of homes with a gaming system will have to double.

I'm not so sure you can say that this generation will be any closer than the last generation ...

The Wii has consistently outsold the PS3 and XBox 360 combined on a weekly basis and is on track to pass their combined worldwide totals by the end of 2007, and (as a result) third party resources are being shifted towards the Wii at a rapid rate. The PS3 and XBox 360 are running out of time to turn things around before it becomes too late to counter the momentium the Wii has built.

For a moment consider what the shift of development actually means for the PS3 and XBox 360. To produce high quality games for the XBox 360 and PS3 they will (typically) require at least 18 months to 24 months to develop which means that the high quality games for the second half of 2008 and first half of 2009 would have been started in the last 6 months; in other words the time where people predict a "Comeback" for the PS3 and XBox 360 actually coresponds to when you should expect a drought in good games for the PS3 and XBox 360.

 

Lots of responding...

As will the Wii when demand stops outstripping supply.


Incorrect on two fronts. First, the PS3 is still selling slower than either the Xbox or GameCube. The 360 has been sluggish and is in need of some serious boosts if it wants to put up a fight either. To claim that the Wii is not pulling as much force this generation as the PS2 last generation is stretching things a bit. Second, the Wii is quickly garnering third-party support (some of which is killing PS3/360 exclusivity).


The PS2 was the weakest of the three consoles in its generation.


Even at its current rate, to hit half the PS2 (currently slightly under a 60m goal) would only take another 3.5 years. This is excluding holiday sales, price cuts, and third-party preference.

The Wii has a good chance, but the PS2 is a moving target. Even the DS which has an even greater chance needs to sell another 20m before it even passes the half way mark. Thats not an easy task.

HappySqurriel said: NorthStar said: I doubt it. The race will be much closer this time than last. It seems almost pointless to argue as well. In sports terms debating wether someone will be in the "Hall of Fame" after they played in their first half of the season. for the Wii to pass the PS2 the number of homes with a gaming system will have to double. I'm not so sure you can say that this generation will be any closer than the last generation ... The Wii has consistently outsold the PS3 and XBox 360 combined on a weekly basis and is on track to pass their combined worldwide totals by the end of 2007, and (as a result) third party resources are being shifted towards the Wii at a rapid rate. The PS3 and XBox 360 are running out of time to turn things around before it becomes too late to counter the momentium the Wii has built. For a moment consider what the shift of development actually means for the PS3 and XBox 360. To produce high quality games for the XBox 360 and PS3 they will (typically) require at least 18 months to 24 months to develop which means that the high quality games for the second half of 2008 and first half of 2009 would have been started in the last 6 months; in other words the time where people predict a "Comeback" for the PS3 and XBox 360 actually coresponds to when you should expect a drought in good games for the PS3 and XBox 360.

Well the PS2 not only consistently outsold their competitors behind BUT it also had a years head start and all the developer support.

 http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=GC&reg3=All

as you can see the GC and Xbox never really looked like threatening Sony's empire. Compare that to now where the Xbox has 10 million units sold, the developer support is much more even, and the market segmentation is much larger now than last gen. There is a lot of evidence that suggests that this generation will be closer than last. But I still don't think second will top 40 million, and I think Wii has a decent chance of beating the PS2.

Is it possible? Sure. There's nothing more to say before 2009.

There's no way. I since some fad like traits in the Wii.

grandmaster192 said: There's no way. I since some fad like traits in the Wii.

^???

 

New markets like China and India will help Wii sell more than PS2, I think.

 

Speaking of China, how much did the iQue sell?

ZZetaAlec said: ^???

How am  suspose to answer "???"?