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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Paper Mario Predictions

Considering Paper Mario for every other Nintendo system has only done 200k it's first month, I don't see SPM doing much differently. 200k first month, 700k total. :) As for Wii Sports, in Japan, I think it'll do no less than 5m, with Wii Play somewhere near 3.5m. Wii Play in the US should get to 1m or more.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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I don't think it will do much of an impact, more less like Zelda. It should be like 800k total, and 1st week sales should be around 150k-200k... Wii Sports should be 2.2-2.5m and Wii Play 1.6-1.9m and no more... probably because another title will steal the attention to those.



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You bring up a good point with the "first Mario game for Wii" thing... people buying a Wii between now and Galaxy's release, will pick up SPM just because they see Mario on it... remember, the two other Paper Mario games came out at the *end* of the console life cycles. On top of that, the action-instead-of-RPG gameplay will probably attract more people than the previous two titles did. People will probably look at SPM the same way as NSMB... I think it'll be interesting to see the long-term sales comparissons between the two Mario games... which one will the public recieve better?



To be 100% honest I could see just about anything happening with this game ... Some people have probably bought the Wii because they're pretty big on the retro-gaming aspect of it and I could see a lot of those people buying into Super Paper Mario ... at the same time, one of the reasons a lot of the people I know play games on a handheld (as compared to a console) is because they're into 2D games; New Super Mario Bros. has tapped into an existing market with a really strong game ... I could see Super Paper Mario selling anywhere from 500,000 to 5,000,000 units worldwide ...



From what I have seen of the gameplay thus far in super paper mario the game is going to kick ass. I doubt see why Japan would look at this much differently from NSMB so it should sell well. I'll guess that it breaks a million in japan. I don't know how fast or how many it will sell after that.



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Ofcourse it will never sell as much as MSMB, due too a smaller amount of wii's than ds's. Nevertheless I think it will sell +750k.



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I think the ambiguity about this game will help it: a lot of people will pick it up thinking it's a traditional side-scrolling platformer (a la NSMB), while it will also pick up sales for being a deeper pseudo-RPG. NSMB has done extremely well globally, so that similarities might convince a lot of DS fans to pick up a Wii (although at this rate they might not be able to still).



I know you can transition from 2D to 3D, but there are games that have had similar elements in Japan for Nintendo systems. I would say Donkey Kong Country 1-3 (SNES), Super Mario RPG (SNES), and Yoshi's Island (SNES/DS) are similar. I'd say for a comparison, look at how well the new (and excellent) Yoshi's Island DS game sells.



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I actually think they should have renamed it. It will sell far better then the mario rpgs, if it's marketed as a sidescrolling action game. If people identify as following the in the footsteps of the New Super Mario Bros. it should do really well. REmember alot of casual gamerrs like the side scrolling title, and is part of the reason it sold so well on the DS, if Super Paper Mario properly hightlights the action of this game in ads, it should hugely appeal to the market that bought a Wii. Remember this title is very different then the older titles. They say the old ones were 80% rpg 20% Action, this one is the exact opposite, which is what people want to see. BTW anyone watch the GDC videos of this game? It looks like it's going to be great. I can't wait to play as bowser either. It's funny you have this state of the art show about the future of games and so far two of the thing I found most exciting were sidescrollers(this game and Little Big planet.) Don't get me wrong it's not the only thing that I found exciting it's just interesting to see this old worn gaming design still trucking along.