By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General Discussion - Calling VGEconomist: Whats the prognosis on the economy?

I know little to nothing about economics, but I know the dive the Dow took today was not good. Do you all think this nose dive will continue/ could we hit 7000? Or is this just a continuation of the ups and downs we've been seeing the past couple of months?

 

The community here is usually pretty good on this stuff so I thought I'd ask you what you think.



Around the Network

The economy is quite a bit different than the markets, and the markets have been reacting based on emotion for quite awhile ... It is entirely possible that the Dow could fall below 7000 (or even 6000) but I think it would require a few peices of unexpected bad news to switch people to a state of irrational fear.

 

 



Capitalism has failed



SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

wtf?

are you being sarcastic?

 



Around the Network
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

wtf?

are you being sarcastic?

 

A recession/depression is not a failure of capatalism anymore than a plague, drought or famine is a failure of evolution ... they are a period when weaker entities are culled which ensures the health of the system (as a whole) over time.

This recession/depression in particular can not even be considered to be caused by the free market being the influence of the Federal Reserve as well as changes in regulation were major factors into how the market got so out of balance that such a major correction is in order.

 



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

wtf?

are you being sarcastic?

 

A recession/depression is not a failure of capatalism anymore than a plague, drought or famine is a failure of evolution ... they are a period when weaker entities are culled which ensures the health of the system (as a whole) over time.

This recession/depression in particular can not even be considered to be caused by the free market being the influence of the Federal Reserve as well as changes in regulation were major factors into how the market got so out of balance that such a major correction is in order.

 

if we had regulated the markets then we could have stopped irresponsible lending and ensured the economy works the way it should for the benefit of the people



SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

wtf?

are you being sarcastic?

 

A recession/depression is not a failure of capatalism anymore than a plague, drought or famine is a failure of evolution ... they are a period when weaker entities are culled which ensures the health of the system (as a whole) over time.

This recession/depression in particular can not even be considered to be caused by the free market being the influence of the Federal Reserve as well as changes in regulation were major factors into how the market got so out of balance that such a major correction is in order.

 

if we had regulated the markets then we could have stopped irresponsible lending and ensured the economy works the way it should for the benefit of the people

I think you need to understand the influence that regulation (in the form of the Fair Housing Act) had on irresponsible lending before you claim that further regulation would have corrected to problem ... There are some very well known lawyers who successfully sued banks because they refused to give loans to people who had no income.

 



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

wtf?

are you being sarcastic?

 

A recession/depression is not a failure of capatalism anymore than a plague, drought or famine is a failure of evolution ... they are a period when weaker entities are culled which ensures the health of the system (as a whole) over time.

This recession/depression in particular can not even be considered to be caused by the free market being the influence of the Federal Reserve as well as changes in regulation were major factors into how the market got so out of balance that such a major correction is in order.

 

if we had regulated the markets then we could have stopped irresponsible lending and ensured the economy works the way it should for the benefit of the people

I think you need to understand the influence that regulation (in the form of the Fair Housing Act) had on irresponsible lending before you claim that further regulation would have corrected to problem ... There are some very well known lawyers who successfully sued banks because they refused to give loans to people who had no income.

im not familiar with that act, is it in the US? im in the UK btw



Oops ... I ment the Community Reinvestment Act

Wikipedia

Legislative changes 1992

Although not part of the CRA, in order to achieve similar aims the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government sponsored enterprises that purchase and securitize mortgages, to devote a percentage of their lending to support affordable housing.[10]

In October 2000, in order to expand the secondary market for affordable community-based mortgages and to increase liquidity for CRA-eligible loans, Fannie Mae committed to purchase and securitize $2 billion of "MyCommunityMortgage" loans.[21][22] In November 2000 Fannie Mae announced that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”) would soon require it to dedicate 50% of its business to low- and moderate-income families." It stated that since 1997 Fannie Mae had done nearly $7 billion in CRA business with depository institutions, but its goal was $20 billion.[23] In 2001 Fannie Mae announced that it had acquired $10 billion in specially-targeted Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) loans more than one and a half years ahead of schedule, and announced its goal to finance over $500 billion in CRA business by 2010, about one third of loans anticipated to be financed by Fannie Mae during that period.[24]

[edit] Legislative changes 1994

The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994, which repealed restrictions on interstate banking, listed the CRA ratings received by the out-of-state bank as a consideration when determining whether to allow interstate branches.[25] According to Bernanke, a surge in bank merger and acquisition activities followed the passing of the act, and advocacy groups increasingly used the public comment process to protest bank applications on CRA grounds. When applications were highly contested, federal agencies held public hearings to allow public comment on the bank's lending record. In response many institutions established separate business units and subsidiary corporations to facilitate CRA-related lending. Local and regional public-private partnerships and multi-bank loan consortia were formed to expand and manage such CRA-related lending.[10]

[edit] Regulatory changes 1995

In July 1993, President Clinton asked regulators to reform the CRA in order to make examinations more consistent, clarify performance standards, and reduce cost and compliance burden.[16] Robert Rubin, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, under President Clinton, explained that this was in line with President Clinton's strategy to "deal with the problems of the inner city and distressed rural communities". Discussing the reasons for the Clinton administration's proposal to strengthen the CRA and further reduce red-lining, Lloyd Bentsen, Secretary of the Treasury at that time, affirmed his belief that availability of credit should not depend on where a person lives, "The only thing that ought to matter on a loan application is whether or not you can pay it back, not where you live." Bentsen said that the proposed changes would "make it easier for lenders to show how they're complying with the Community Reinvestment Act", and "cut back a lot of the paperwork and the cost on small business loans".[14]

In 1995, the CRA regulations were substantially revised to address criticisms that the regulations, and the agencies' implementation of them through the examination process, were too process-oriented, burdensome, and not sufficiently focused on actual results. The agencies also changed the CRA examination process to incorporate these revisions.[16] Information about banking institutions' CRA ratings were made available via web page for public comment.[14] The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) also revised its regulations, allowing lenders subject to the CRA to claim community development loan credits for loans made to help finance the environmental cleanup or redevelopment of industrial sites when it was part of an effort to revitalize the low- and moderate-income community where the site was located.[26]

During March 1995 congressional hearings William A. Niskanen, chair of the Cato Institute, criticized the proposals for political favoritism in allocating credit and micromanagement by regulators, and that there was no assurance that banks would not be expected to operate at a loss. He predicted they would be very costly to the economy and banking system, and that the primary long term effect would be to contract the banking system. He recommended Congress repeal the Act.[27]

Responding to concerns that the CRA would lower bank profitability, a 1997 research paper by economists at the Federal Reserve found that "[CRA] lenders active in lower-income neighborhoods and with lower-income borrowers appear to be as profitable as other mortgage-oriented commercial banks".[28] Speaking in 2007, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke noted that, "managers of financial institutions found that these loan portfolios, if properly underwritten and managed, could be profitable" and that the loans "usually did not involve disproportionately higher levels of default".[10]

According to a 2000 United States Department of the Treasury study of lending trends in 305 U.S. cities between 1993 and 1998, $467 billion in mortgage credit flowed from CRA-covered lenders to low- and medium-income borrowers and areas. In that period, the total number of loans to poorer Americans by CRA-eligible institutions rose by 39% while loans to wealthier individuals by CRA-covered institutions rose by 17%. The share of total US lending to low and meduim income borrowers rose from 25% in 1993 to 28% in 1998 as a consequence. [29]

In October 1997, First Union Capital Markets and Bear, Stearns & Co launched the first publicly available securitization of Community Reinvestment Act loans, issuing $384.6 million of such securities. The securities were guaranteed by Freddie Mac and had an implied "AAA" rating.[30][23] The public offering was several times oversubscribed, predominantly by money managers and insurance companies who were not buying them for CRA credit.[31]

[edit] Legislative changes 1999

In 1999 the Congress enacted and President Clinton signed into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the "Financial Services Modernization Act," which repealed the part of the Glass-Steagall Act, which prohibited a bank from offering a full range of investment, commercial banking, and insurance services. The bill was killed in 1998 because Senator Phil Gramm wanted the bill to expand the number of banks which no longer would be covered by the CRA. He also demanded full disclosure of any financial deals which community groups had with banks, accusing such groups of "extortion." In 1999 Senators Christopher Dodd and Charles E. Schumer broke another deadlock by forcing a compromise between Gramm and the Clinton administration which wanted to prevent banks from expanding into insurance or securities unless they were compliant with the CRA. In the final compromise, the CRA would cover bank expansions into new lines of business, community groups would have to disclose certain kinds of financial deals with banks, and smaller banks would be reviewed less frequently for CRA compliance.[32][33][34] On signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, President Clinton said that it, "establishes the principles that, as we expand the powers of banks, we will expand the reach of the [Community Reinvestment] Act".[35]

 

Essentially, the government was ensuring that risky loans would be given to people who couldn't possibly afford them